Nationwide goes negative YOY

boinging_2

meanmachine wrote: »

Look, don't ask some stranger on the net, do your own research.

Mortgage approvals are a very good, very accurate way of telling what the property market is going to do 4-6 months from now.

Mortgage approvals above 90K points to property inflation (as a rule), approvals below 90K point to flat or falling prices.

This month the figures came in at 64K, so that tells you the slump is going to continue at least til September - BEST CASE SCENARIO.

For prices to recover from the Autumn, approvals would have to start shooting up again in the next few months, and would probably need to be well above 100K to start whittling away the built up stock.

Think that likely?

I know my thoughts on the market (STR). I was interested in seeing what all the people who constantly moan and groan that the prices are not coming down around their ears actually believe will happen.

We've gone from +10% YoY in September to negative today. This is the start.

baby_boomer

mitchaa wrote: »

i'd much rather have money in bricks and mortar than nothing at all.

What a bizarre comparison

!!!!!!? wrote: »

the Nationwide figures aren't the best. You can bet that every opportunity is taken to massage them as Nationwide have a vested interest in pimping the market.

How much do you think they are prepared to do this at the price of losing their long term credibility? At what stage do they shoot themselves in the foot even though the management will have to take responsibility further down the line?

If I were Nationwide I'd keep its figures credible. It's not as if either Nationwide's survival or the position of bosses is at stake. Reputations are hard won and easily lost.

boinging_2

The reactions of the news today are quite simply:

Denial is a defense mechanism' postulated by Sigmund Freud, in which a person is faced with a fact that is too uncomfortable to accept and rejects it instead, insisting that it is not true despite what may be overwhelming evidence.

mr.broderick

boinging wrote: »

The reactions of the news today are quite simply:

Denial is a defense mechanism' postulated by Sigmund Freud, in which a person is faced with a fact that is too uncomfortable to accept and rejects it instead, insisting that it is not true despite what may be overwhelming evidence.

Denial...Must admit i keep telling myself i am not addicted to reading posts like this ...

$$$_12

I'm not quite sure why people think the Land Registry has any more credibility than the other indexes - it's particularly susceptible to gifted deposit style scams (ie the price recorded in the Land Registry for certain types of property in some areas could easily be 15%+ higher than actual prices paid).