Nationwide goes negative YOY

boinging_2

So you are predicting that Oct 2008 will see a return to house prices increasing?

Plus just for the record what % do you expect them to drop between now and Oct 2008?

dannyboycey

EdInvestor wrote: »

Latest guesstimate is maybe another six months until the market is back to reasonable normality

If house prices have started rising, inflation is under control, recession has been avoided, petrol prices have reduced substantially, and all is looking rosey by October, I'll eat my own poo poo. Todays' news of YoY falls will really add momentum to things - include all the other economic problems with the credit crunch and the cost of living.... There's a long way to go before we see those proverbial 'green shoots' of recovery. The bigger the bubble, the louder the bang, and this was the biggest bubble in history.

neverdespairgirl

dannyboycey wrote: »

The bigger the bubble, the louder the bang, and this was the biggest bubble in history.

What about the South Sea bubble? Or the tulip bubble?

m00m00

this debt bubble (of which UK house prices is only a small part) is a global phenomenon. The scale of which is rather bigger than the 2 mentioned.


whether it's popping will have the same relative effects we won't know until the dust settles and the last X5 is dragged away to be repossessed.

skap7309

YOY NEGATIVE?

:beer: :j :j :beer: :beer: :j :beer: :beer: :j :j :j :beer: :beer: :beer: :j :j :T :T :T :T :T :T :T :beer: :beer: :j :j :T :T

Edit: for anyone who thinks falls will blow over by the end of summer and begin to rise again (:rotfl: ) come back next decade and i MAY agree with you. :rolleyes:

meanmachine_2

boinging wrote: »

So you are predicting that Oct 2008 will see a return to house prices increasing?

Plus just for the record what % do you expect them to drop between now and Oct 2008?

Look, don't ask some stranger on the net, do your own research.

Mortgage approvals are a very good, very accurate way of telling what the property market is going to do 4-6 months from now.

Mortgage approvals above 90K points to property inflation (as a rule), approvals below 90K point to flat or falling prices.

This month the figures came in at 64K, so that tells you the slump is going to continue at least til September - BEST CASE SCENARIO.

For prices to recover from the Autumn, approvals would have to start shooting up again in the next few months, and would probably need to be well above 100K to start whittling away the built up stock.

Think that likely?

snoopy78

EdInvestor wrote: »

When the credit crunch comes to an end. The stockmarket seems to think the worst is over and the big banks (RBS,HBoS) are now fessing up to losses and asking shareholders for new capital.Some interbankcredit markets are now functioning again but not all.So progress is underway on getting it sorted but there is still a lot of work to be done.The 50bn from the Govt will help when it gets deployed..

So you don't think that lenders are going to be very slow to introduce 100% mortgages again?
Or that the 50bn is a drop in the ocean and has had no effect what so ever?

You honestly believe that the banks have been totally truthful regarding potential losses? and that they are not going to smooth them out over a few years?

You really believe the FSA is going to let the banks get away with no new regulations after this little episode?

It will take the US several years to get over the house price crashes over there end, and the banks will not have the money to lend, as our banking system is interlinked with the US our recovery will be slow.

EdInvestor

boinging wrote: »

So you are predicting that Oct 2008 will see a return to house prices increasing?

Err no. I said that there were predictions the credit crunch could be over by Oct 2008.That would stabilise the market, not necessarily lead to an immediate price rise.

I agree that mortgage approvals are the key indicator to watch to predict a retutrn to market normality

Plus just for the record what % do you expect them to drop between now and Oct 2008?

Impossible to say. The divergence between the real transaction indices (eg Land Registry,FT) and the ones which only feature sales involving mortgages is beginning to get quite large,no doubt due to the fact that the market disruption is caused by the rationing of loans.

So IMHO there is likely to be considerable disagreement about exactly what's happening before long..Prices could drop quite a lot but if sales are based on a very thin market dominated by repos and new build flats (for instance), but people may not pay much attention to these price falls as they wouldn't be representative.

EdInvestor

snoopy78 wrote: »

So you don't think that lenders are going to be very slow to introduce 100% mortgages again?

I think I said that they will be slow to reintroduce higher risk products.

Or that the 50bn is a drop in the ocean and has had no effect what so ever?

It's had no effect *yet* because it hasn't *yet* been disbursed.

You honestly believe that the banks have been totally truthful regarding potential losses?

Losses are a moving target as the root cause is the US property market which is still going down.

..

and that they are not going to smooth them out over a few years?

There will be some of that certainly, but that's not a problem.What has gummed up the interbank market is that people aren't confident that the full extent of the black holes has been revealed.However the more that is revealed the more confident they get - so that for instance they were able to take the RBS and HBoS revelations quite calmly.It's the uncertainty they hate.

You really believe the FSA is going to let the banks get away with no new regulations after this little episode?

The FSA has very little to say for itself indeed. It's credibility is shot to ribbons.

It will take the US several years to get over the house price crashes over there end, and the banks will not have the money to lend, as our banking system is interlinked with the US our recovery will be slow.

I wouldn't draw too much of a parallel with the US - yes we have been affected by contagion from there but our banks are nothing like as heavily exposed to the nasty stuff as theirs - indeed several of the big European banks have worse exposure than UK banks.

It is very difficult to know what will happen going forward, and it's quite possible to argue the opposite, pessimistic view I agree.Only time will tell, as they say...

boinging_2

EdInvestor wrote: »

Err no. I said that there were predictions the credit crunch could be over by Oct 2008.That would stabilise the market, not necessarily lead to an immediate price rise.

I agree that mortgage approvals are the key indicator to watch to predict a retutrn to market normality

Impossible to say. The divergence between the real transaction indices (eg Land Registry,FT) and the ones which only feature sales involving mortgages is beginning to get quite large,no doubt due to the fact that the market disruption is caused by the rationing of loans.

So IMHO there is likely to be considerable disagreement about exactly what's happening before long..Prices could drop quite a lot but if sales are based on a very thin market dominated by repos and new build flats (for instance), but people may not pay much attention to these price falls as they wouldn't be representative.

Are you a politician?

I asked a very simple question of what your belief was on what the market would do?

You post about how this and that won't affect prices and it's all short term, but won't make a predicition. Before you ask, I said that we would be looking at YoY drops by May (bit early on this one) and we'll be seeing between 20 - 30% falls by end of 2008.