Nationwide goes negative YOY

WTF?_2

carolt wrote: »

Been too busy recently to contribute, but couldn't resist popping in to see how the year on year fall is going down here.....

I was looking forward to a few more 'the sky is falling in' headlines, but they do seem to be playing Armageddon pretty quietly out there at the moment.

So, where are all the 'house prices only ever go up' proponents now, I wonder? Aaah, I see they're busy posting threads about how this is not in fact happening, their street/village/area is 'different', etc.

Some things never change....

Good to see you back.

Yes - it's official. The 'correction' now can't be denied.

Plus, interest rate cuts aren't likely to save this turkey unlike previous occasions when economic reality threatened to prevail. Just like a river, the market will always find its true course in time no matter how much you try to divert it.

mitchaa

!!!!!!? wrote: »

Good to see you back.

Yes - it's official. The 'correction' now can't be denied.

Only according to 1 independent lender.

Wait for LR figures before it's ''official''

dannyboycey

mitchaa wrote: »

Wow, a whole 1% YOY fall :rolleyes:

Only another 49% to go if you believe half the drivel on this site.

Shows what a complete lack of understanding you have of the subject. To go from double digit positive to a negative figure is not 1%. The party has only just started.

IveSeenTheLight

mitchaa wrote: »

Only according to 1 independent lender.

Wait for LR figures before it's ''official''

Mitchaa,
You will probably see this in the LR i.e. in June / July the LR will report in April the average house price YoY is -1%.

It's taken 6 consecutive months of falls to be -1% YoY.

Now that figure may accelerate, but we still have to see the impact of the BoE Specialy liquidity scheme, which will probably take a couple of months to kick in.

Taking the source Nationwide,
It's interesting that in March they reported that the outlook was bleak
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/mar_2008.pdf
but in April they report how the Special Liquidity Scheme and interest rate cuts should restore a more orderly transition and ultimately bring about a more stable market.
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/apr_2008.pdf

purch

My property has increased by £39,000 within the last 10 months after a valuation a couple of days ago so this HPC nonsense doesn't worry me in the slightest

What are you going to spend that £39k on ???

Must be nice....some bloke in a suit and tie comes round and tells you you're £39,000 richer than you were....:rotfl: :rotfl:

He must be right.....he was driving a nice car !!!!

obsessed_saver

YoY figures are only going to get worse. If prices were still rising during May 2007, the next month's figure will be an even larger negative number.

I think this is the beginning though. It's already tipped over onto the downward slope, so it's going to accelerate downwards.

The only people buying/selling are people who have to move for jobs, etc. Or crazy first time buyers who don't read the news. I doubt any BTL are buying anything from the open market, maybe in auction houses.

Is there a measure of drop from the peak of the market, rather than YoY?

mitchaa

dannyboycey wrote: »

Shows what a complete lack of understanding you have of the subject. To go from double digit positive to a negative figure is not 1%. The party has only just started.

My post was made in Jest to YOY 2007 figures and the typical MSE expert housing market scaremongers.

Someone that bought a property this time last year will have lost a whopping 1%. (According to nationwide anyway)

boinging_2

mitchaa wrote: »

Wow, a whole 1% YOY fall :rolleyes:

Only another 49% to go if you believe half the drivel on this site. Wouldn't take any notice of nationwide/halifax stats either, wait until the official LR publishes

My property has increased by £39,000 within the last 10 months after a valuation a couple of days ago so this HPC nonsense doesn't worry me in the slightest:p

Its the renters amongst you who feel the need to gloat, i'd much rather have money in bricks and mortar than nothing at all.

Haaaaaaaaaaaa haaaaaaaaaaaaa! :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

You are a class act... I hope you're here all week.

I'd rather have money in the bank to be honest.

WTF?_2

mitchaa wrote: »

Only according to 1 independent lender.

Wait for LR figures before it's ''official''

I think you'll find that from this point in it's taken as read by the public and media that the market is a-changin'.

(Although I agree that the Nationwide figures aren't the best. You can bet that every opportunity is taken to massage them as Nationwide have a vested interest in pimping the market.)

At the end of the day it's hugely significant that the market changing to a downward trend is accepted. Much of the rampant HPI of the last few years was built on bullish sentiment and the public are very quick to jump off a sinking ship. This will all feed into a negative loop.

mitchaa

purch wrote: »

What are you going to spend that £39k on ???

Must be nice....some bloke in a suit and tie comes round and tells you you're £39,000 richer than you were....:rotfl: :rotfl:

He must be right.....he was driving a nice car !!!!

No, the fact 3 properties in the same street have recently sold for equivelant or more, hence why i had a valuation done. I was actually expecting around a £45k figure

Wont spend it on anything, its only paper fictional money until sold, but im confident that if i did sell right now i would make a £35-45k profit and i only bought the property June 07

Depends on where you live in the country. Recent nationwide survey shows my area of the UK (Aberdeenshire) has risen 18% in the last year.