House prices: disaster ahead - today's Times

PhylPho

Well done pobby for striving to get back on to the topic:

House prices: disaster ahead

Brace yourself for a 30 per cent fall in house prices

Obviously, this is complete rubbish and a sign of how truly awful The Times has become. Aren't any of their journalists capable of reading all the various threads / posts authored on MSE by the ever helpful Hamish?

PhylPho

Harry_Powell wrote: »

Probably it'll all end for the best. We came through 2 world wars and the crashing down of our empire, and yet here we still are. Compared with those events, these are small fry.

Er, we came through World War II thanks to massive borrowing from the USA.

The UK's National Debt is now higher than it was after fighting a war that blitzed cities, killed around a million people (civilians and military) and required expenditure on a war effort the like of which this country has never seen.

So, er, no war here. But thirteen years of Labour Government.

Of course we'll survive. Let's all re-elect the same government. That's what The Dunkirk / The Blitz Spirit is truly about. (Not sure about rationing, though.)

Pobby

Well I still stand by the lines. I have to admit, I don`t know what goes on any more. I did take a big interest in the massive up ward move of house prices and personal debt and to be honest, I still feel very uncomfortable at where we are now.

The events, as glad as I am, re QE and so on have made life easier for many and I find it totally sad if someone losses their home. Saw to much of it in the 90`s.

JonnyBravo

A great thread with lots of interesting insights. Good to revisit old threads which remind you of such stuff.

Degenerate

PhylPho wrote: »

The UK's National Debt is now higher than it was after fighting a war that blitzed cities, killed around a million people (civilians and military) and required expenditure on a war effort the like of which this country has never seen.

When WWII demobilization was complete, the UK national debt stood at over 250% of GDP. At the end of 2009 it stood at 68.1%.

The only way you can have it as "higher" now is if you are using nominal figures, which is a blatantly dishonest way to compare the numbers. Mind you, you're in good company - I recall George Osborne trying the same trick.

mbga9pgf

Degenerate,

Add PFI, unfunded pensions liabilities and Personal debt liabilities and you may get an answer closer to the truth mate....

Harry_Powell

Are Personal debt liabilities included in the national debt figures? I thought that was just concerned with state debt?

Also, much of the unfunded pensions liabilities are in private company pensions - how can this be associated with the national debt?

GDB2222

Personal debts are surely vastly higher than they were in 1945? Everyone has a credit card, huge mortgage, etc. 1945 most of the population didn't even have a bank account.

The whole of the UK state penion system is unfunded, as are all the civil service pensions, armed forces pensions, etc. PFI has shifted loads of debt off the government's balance sheet, but it's just a whitewash job.

pickledpink

Harry_Powell wrote: »

Interesting to see that even highly respected economists were way out with their predictions - 30% drops?

That was all wishful thinking from the have-nots.:(

pickledpink

carolt wrote: »

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/anatole_kaletsky/article3716586.ece

House prices: disaster ahead

Brace yourself for a 30 per cent fall in house prices: that would only be back to 2004 levels

Anatole Kaletsky

After the biggest monthly drop in house prices since Black Wednesday one simple question is on thousands of lips in Britain this week: “How low can they go?”
A picture can be worth a thousand words, so let me double my usual allowance of enlightenment (or confusion) by drawing your attention to the chart linked to at the top of this article. The two lines on this chart provide what I believe to be the most accurate comparison possible between the housing cycles in America and Britain. It shows the relationship of average house prices to average disposable incomes, the broadest and most relevant measure of the money available to households in each economy for buying homes.
The message from this comparison can be summarised as follows: the boom in the British housing market has been much bigger than the one in America. And the long-dreaded correction in British house prices has hardly even started. So if you believe that events in America since house prices peaked there about 18 months ago could accurately be described as a “crisis” or even a “disaster”, you had better reach for the Book of Revelations to find an appropriate word for Britain's economic prospects in the next year or two.

That was a waste of a link, Carol!:money:

Didn't happen did it?:p:rotfl:

Don't worry..................according to some superbrains on here property will be 25% cheaper in 25 years'from now............if you still keep saving you might bag yourself a bargain!:j