House prices: disaster ahead - today's Times

carolt

Go and read my reply to your idiotic post yesterday.

There were 20% falls immediately after I posted this post.

So - I admit it - 20% not 30%.

Though in real terms, I suspect that probably is more like 30%...

Anyway, I digress.

I quoted an article predicting 30% falls.

YOU predicted rises. :rotfl:


Can you work out which one of us came closer to the truth?

Or is your maths not up to that?

doire_2

Down 40+% in NI so im very happy :T

Harry_Powell

Forgive me if I'm wrong, but does it really matter whether anyone called the market correctly if they didn't do anything about it? Prices may have fallen 20% in the South East for instance, but have now climbed back 10% (more in some areas).

TBH, it seems a poor boast to have forseen large market falls but not to actually have profited by them in any way.

Really2

Harry_Powell wrote: »

Forgive me if I'm wrong, but does it really matter whether anyone called the market correctly if they didn't do anything about it? Prices may have fallen 20% in the South East for instance, but have now climbed back 10% (more in some areas).

TBH, it seems a poor boast to have forseen large market falls but not to actually have profited by them in any way.

To true 27% below April 08 peak price for the same house for me and how I was mocked in August 08.

People got greedy and called for more falls, 20-30% was the perceived over value of houses before correction.
I have no Idea why so many think the nominal part of the falls would be greater than 30%.

Harry_Powell

It's always a mistake in any market to stick rigidly with a nice round figure, such as 30% and blank out what's happening in the market. I was also hoping for dramatic falls as I was sitting pretty with a deposit and ready to buy. When the government started printing money, it was obvious that the falls I hoped for would not materialise, so I cut my losses and bought. I could have been mistaken but reasoned that I'd rather bank 20% gains and miss out on more gains, than be miserable in rented and risk having to pay more to buy. History has proven that my decision was right, though I do conceed that it could have gone either way, so unlike many on here I won't pronounce myself as the next financial messiah, just someone who used a bit of logic and got lucky.

StevieJ

PhylPho wrote: »

Well done pobby for striving to get back on to the topic:

House prices: disaster ahead

Brace yourself for a 30 per cent fall in house prices

Obviously, this is complete rubbish and a sign of how truly awful The Times has become. Aren't any of their journalists capable of reading all the various threads / posts authored on MSE by the ever helpful Hamish?

To be fair that guy doesn't have very good forecasting record in general.

mbga9pgf

StevieJ wrote: »

To be fair that guy doesn't have very good forecasting record in general.

The guy is an unashamed socialist tw*t. The fact they have someone writing their headline economic pieces for the Times is a disgrace. Fit for the guardian maybe, not the times.

Similar ilk to that twonk Blanchflower. I am betting now their support socialisation of bank debt idea is proving an abject failure around the globe, we hear far less from them both.

Really2

Harry_Powell wrote: »

I won't pronounce myself as the next financial messiah, just someone who used a bit of logic and got lucky.

That's all we can do the bold part is usually the main one.
I was lucky I knew the person running the site and the time I sold my house coincided with the builders year end / fire sale.
If I had not known the site manager I would have not got the discount, If I had not sold 2 days earlier I would ave not got the house.

It was mainly luck, a bit of judgment and a bit of risk.

Harry_Powell

There still might be some risk involved as I'm quite sure that we'll see some falls, perhaps even dramatic ones along the way. However, I simply couldn't (and neither could my GF) stand to remain in rented acommodation any longer. I know some people have a pleasant time, but that really hasn't been our experience!

Over the next couple of years we're taking advantage of low interest rates to renovate our wreck of a house and to overpay the mortgage to the point where we get a good LTV. Even if prices fall back to where they were when we bought, we'll be quite happy with our decision to buy when we did. TBH, this is an attitude I never really understood when I was renting, but completely understand now that I'm an OO.

GDB2222

mbga9pgf wrote: »

The guy is an unashamed socialist tw*t. The fact they have someone writing their headline economic pieces for the Times is a disgrace. Fit for the guardian maybe, not the times.

Similar ilk to that twonk Blanchflower. I am betting now their support socialisation of bank debt idea is proving an abject failure around the globe, we hear far less from them both.

I think I'm going to stop The Times. The whole of the front page today was one long article telling me to vote conservative. Regardless of the instructions they may have received from their owner, that is simply appalling and the editor should have refused.