How Much Will Prices Fall ?

Walter_J

I had a very interesting conversation with a branch manager of a national chain of estate agents on Saturday.

He says that their new business plan is based on prices falling by at least 25% over the next two years. They have pretty well given up on the retail market for the forseeable future and are planning on concentrating on forced sales and repossessions to see them through.

Independent agents without access to these banks of properties will go bust en mass.

Now that the big estate agents are planning on a crash of these proportions it is difficult to see it not being a self-fulfilling prophesy.

For my money prices will fall 40% nominal by 2012.

m00m00

it's not just about affordability, it's about perceived value

why pay so much more in mortgage interest in rent for the same thing when the outlook for capital gains is non existent in the short term, and dubious in the medium term.

beer_tins

Certainly no more than 20% nominal, which is a lot more in real terms. Don't forget there isn't a single "housing market", there are loads of different housing markets and they all behave differently. Some areas will continue to rise (those central London hotspots), others will remain at the same level and others will fall (at different % levels). Different types of property will also perform better than others depending on their area. For example, in some areas flats will do better, in other areas worse. I cannot see a drop of 20% in nominal terms across the board, averaged out over the whole country, although it might happen in some areas. Personally, I can see prices falling around 10% in nominal terms (more in real terms). No one has a crystal ball of course...

arthur_dent_2

I am only up the creek if the fall gets to around 60% and I really can't see that happening. I reckon about a quarter.

Gorgeous_George

arthur_dent wrote: »

I am only up the creek if the fall gets to around 60% and I really can't see that happening. I reckon about a quarter.

The falls can be 100% for all I care. My mortgages are lifetime deals tied to the BofE base rate and my home would meet my needs to death.

If falls are large enough, I'd consider buying another BTL - but not until I think the market has bottomed out and the numbers stack up.

GG

Dan:_4

Should have stated a time period on this poll. For that reason I have had to vote that prices only ever go up!

overlander

mystic_trev has summed it up nicely too many people have forgot the last crash.

geoffky

last crash lost 50 grand and was chased endessly for it until i paid...

MonkeySaving?

geoffky wrote: »

last crash lost 50 grand and was chased endessly for it until i paid...

Thats because the housing market, like your name, is a slippery slope :beer:

Benefits_Blagger

arthur_dent wrote: »

I am only up the creek if the fall gets to around 60% and I really can't see that happening. I reckon about a quarter.

well according to the poll above, that's looking the likely scenario, personally I want more, but there again if this takes quite a few years, the fall will be greater than this once inflation is accounted for.

BRING ON THE CRASH!! WOOHOOO!!!!!!!