Just a little pointer for this forum

IveSeenTheLight

carolt,

Once again, take a deep breath, count to 10, whatever that you need to do to make you more relaxed.

Debate is all about balance, two sides to an argument and all that.

The OP was all one sided, I added two more points on the opposite side of the fence and one which people like you are recommending (post 6).

This makes the discussion more balanced and therefore everyone can discuss / make their own minds up on the market and information they are interested in.

Getting back to your query, you said: -

carolt wrote: »

If you genuinely believe the pattern of the last few years is about to be repeated over the next few, ie prices to double/triple over the next few years, why don't you just come out and say it? And quote reputable sources, so that the less knowledgeable among us can read them and learn from your useful advice.

BUT - you can't, can you???

I have never ever said that property prices of the last few years will be repeated over the next fey years.
This is why I have not come out and said that, nor is this what I was inferring to.

What I do say is that in my opinion, I do not foresee a "crash"
I can envisage in general, a 10 - 15% drop and some flattening (low increase and low decrease) for a couple of years, before the market starts to rise again.
Please note that no-one can predict the future but everyone needs to realise that different areas are affected differently.
What happens in London will not be exactly the same as what happens in Manchester, Liverpool, Belfast, Edinburgh or Aberdeen.

What I also say is after the "correction" I envisage that there are many people waiting in the wings to buy again and this may start the next boom

Please stop trying to insinuate people are saying something when they clearly have not

tomstickland

A basic supply and demand model would predict that the market would self correct - ie: a drop in prices would allow more to be able to afford and hence start buying. However, the herd mentality does not fit into the basic model. Once people are convinced that house prices are dropping they will wait the market to bottom out. Meanwhile, people that have to sell will struggle to find buyers and will lower prices, further fuelling the effect.

WTF?_2

tomstickland wrote: »

A basic supply and demand model would predict that the market would self correct - ie: a drop in prices would allow more to be able to afford and hence start buying. However, the herd mentality does not fit into the basic model. Once people are convinced that house prices are dropping they will wait the market to bottom out. Meanwhile, people that have to sell will struggle to find buyers and will lower prices, further fuelling the effect.

Also, factor in the effects of BTLers selling off (houses and flats) and oversupply of newbuild flats. Then there's the prospect of large numbers of immigrants leaving if the economy gets really bad.

Don't forget also that 'demand' in this context means 'desiring to buy and able to purchase'. Without access to large amounts of cheap, no-questions-asked credit the simple fact is that the average house price is going to be unaffordable to most of the likely market.

shakerbaby

wockawocka wrote: »

I've seen lots of arguments on the MSE boards between people hoping for a crash and those who don't want one.

1. If you bought it as an investment and you are losing out, tough, you had the opportunity to do the research and you made a choice, live with it.

2. If you bought it as a home to live and grow in you have no worries as price falls will all be relevant, that 4 bed end terrace you want to move to will fall by the same amount once averaged out.

3. If you took 20k out for a conservatory worth 5k see point number 1.

Shame the governments of the UK and the USA don't have the same attitude with their banks, but that's another story for another time.

Good salient points. :T

BritRael

wockawocka wrote: »

I've seen lots of arguments on the MSE boards between people hoping for a crash and those who don't want one.

I mostly agree with your points.

However, I would have substituted the words "hoping for" with predicting. In which case, I'm in that group. But I am certainly not hoping for a crash.

tomterm8

!!!!!!? wrote: »

so we as taxpayers and savers (inflation) get to bail them out.
.

It's not whether we bail them out, it's about how, and the fact no single banking executive has been faced with criminal charges. In the savings and loan scandle, the US indicted well over 800 people. In the UK... no one faces the mustard.

The UK banks should have gone through BR proceedings, and then nationalised by the government. Shareholders and selected bondholders should have lost their lunch. The OR should have looked into every bonus, and recovered as much money as possible. The government should have protected UK citizens, and not pensions for the executives of banks. UK bank executives should have been charged with crimes, which I don't doubt they committed.

I don't see any consequences for the people who caused this mess.

I don't see any reason it couldn't happen again.

rebeccaj

why are these very old threads being resurrected by shakerbaby

Kev09

carolt wrote: »

Absolutely true.

Refer readers to all those people who bought at precisely the wrong time last time, as the market started falling, and faced 10+ years of negative equity before they could move...always assuming they hadn't had their houses repossessed first.....

Not everybody lives in London or the south of England, in fact I think there are about 60 million people in the UK, lucky they built a new Wembley then or spent 5 billion on that tube line we can all use. Hands up here who watched Notting hill with that lovely Hugh grant and invested 400k in cupboard in London?

Mind you I am Scottish and we trouser more cash than everybody else, happy days!!!

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I can envisage in general, a 10 - 15% drop and some flattening (low increase and low decrease) for a couple of years, before the market starts to rise again.

Please note that no-one can predict the future but everyone needs to realise that different areas are affected differently.

What happens in London will not be exactly the same as what happens in Manchester, Liverpool, Belfast, Edinburgh or Aberdeen.

What I also say is after the "correction" I envisage that there are many people waiting in the wings to buy again and this may start the next boom

:T

What a spot on prediction. Thats almost exactly how it's played out since that post was made.

FungusFighter

wockawocka wrote: »

I've seen lots of arguments on the MSE boards between people hoping for a crash and those who don't want one.

1. If you bought it as an investment and you are losing out, tough, you had the opportunity to do the research and you made a choice, live with it.

2. If you bought it as a home to live and grow in you have no worries as price falls will all be relevant, that 4 bed end terrace you want to move to will fall by the same amount once averaged out.

3. If you took 20k out for a conservatory worth 5k see point number 1.

Shame the governments of the UK and the USA don't have the same attitude with their banks, but that's another story for another time.

4. The "House Prices " board will cease to be relevant or have anything meaningfull to offer and instead become one big clusterw4nk .