FTB's - don't buy now!

WTF?_2

snarffie wrote: »

All I can say is that I've been enjoying my HOME for the last six years, glad I didn't listen to the experts, or the looneys on HPC.

Six years ago prices weren't ridiculously overpriced. Well done for getting in at the right time before the boom. You can continue to enjoy your home as no way will prices regress that far and no doubt your mortgage is pretty affordable compared to what it would cost you to buy your house at recent prices.

On the other hand, most FTBs buying in the last couple of years are going to face a pretty anxious time as the economy turns down, they go into negative equity and they have to worry about meeting massive mortgage repayments.

Buying now is just plain madness when the signs are there for anyone to see.

snarffie

carolt wrote: »

Just not true. Back in 2001 or 2002, the vast majority of experts were NOT predicting a crash. Believe me, I was out there house-hunting with you at the time, and if we had thought prices were about to fall, we wouldn't have been doing that!

Clever the way you say, 'the vast majority'. You know full well, that there was a HUGE clamour of 'experts' saying that prices were due to collapse. Not the level of today, obviously.

You may not be happy to hear that the rises in equity you've been enjoying, unearned, for the last few years are going to stop, and indeed that you're going to lose some of the paper gains you've made.

The equity was not 'unearned', as you so snipingly put it. I have invested a great deal in my home. Nowhere in my post have I said that I have enjoyed the rise in property prices, in fact quite the opposite. I have simply stated that the experts get it wrong all the time. No need to be quite so nasty. :cool:

But shooting the messenger won't make the message any less true, I'm afraid. :rolleyes:

Letting the messenger live doesn't make the message any truer either.;)

Time to tighten the purse strings, I think...

I have been doing so since paying of the last of my credit cards about four years ago, but thanks for your advice. :beer:

Tozer

dolcevita wrote: »

These charlatans haven't got a clue.

In another 12 months prices in general will be alot lower than they are now.
This is 100% guaranteed.

The only thing which is guaranteed is that nothing is guaranteed.

snarffie

dannyboycey wrote: »

Making a prediction of a crash last year was like putting a bet on Arsenal to win the premiership. A good bet with a fairly good chance of winning. Predicting a crash now would be like having a £10 flutter on the sun rising tomorrow.

I'll put my tenner on the sun rising tomorrow.

neas

snarffie wrote: »

Problem is that anybody with two brains cells to rub together will know that, although they are paid to do this, it doesn't mean that they will be right.

People who have been 'paid to do this' have been making WILDLY incorrect predictions since I started househunting in 2001. They were predicting 40% falls back then. HPC doomsayers were telling me that I was an idiot for buying back then. I listened to what they said, but went ahead and bought in 2002. The so-called value of my house has doubled since then.

In all honesty this is a double edged sword because one day I'd like to move to a larger house, and would have to stretch to get there in the current climate. I also don't like seeing people having to get big multiples to buy their first house.

All I can say is that I've been enjoying my HOME for the last six years, glad I didn't listen to the experts, or the looneys on HPC.

Think thats true, but house prices are starting to show drops in prices.. not rises. Hence why the 'experts'.. in the newspapers have changed their viewpoint in the last 6-8 months. Because theres good evidence of a crash happening

dannyboycey

Tozer wrote: »

I don't see a general crash happening anytime soon. I think it will be a correction of over-inflated prices - particularly in some areas - but not a sustained crash. The fundamentals (low and stable interest rates, currently high employment, strong demand for property) all point towards a flat market rather than a crashing market.

My suggestion for Tozer would be to download 'Property bee'. How can people deny that which is right in front of their eyes!? Prices are not going to crash (future tense)... They are crashing now!

Absolutely unbelievable!!

dannyboycey

snarffie wrote: »

I'll put my tenner on the sun rising tomorrow.

I don't fancy your chances of getting good odds.

snarffie

dannyboycey wrote: »

I don't fancy your chances of getting good odds.

Hang on a minute you said that the odds would be the same as a HPC!

dannyboycey wrote: »

...Predicting a crash now would be like having a £10 flutter on the sun rising tomorrow....

The odds must be pretty good then. I know, for I am an 'expert' in such things.:D

Markyt

dolcevita wrote: »

These charlatans haven't got a clue.
.

These charlatans are the ones seeing the figures on their loan books. If they don't have a clue, nor does anybody else. Like everything related to finance, it is down to best guesses.

dannyboycey

snarffie wrote: »

The odds must be pretty good then. I know, for I am an 'expert' in such things.

Good odds = those which provide a decent return.