FTB's - don't buy now!

carolt

House prices likely to fall by a quarter in two years

House prices in Britain could crash by 25 per cent before mid-2010, forecasters at Capital Economics have warned. That would wipe £45,000 off the value of an average house, currently worth £180,000.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/mar/30/housingmarket.houseprices

d900

could

i could also be king of the red buttons by before mid-2010

FTB's - if you want to buy a house and can afford it then do what u like.

WTF?_2

No one can tell the future but the signs are all there for anyone with a modicum of intelligence to figure out where the market is going. Not just the house market, but the economy generally.

Anyone who would be getting into the housing market at this moment is really doing so at just about the worst possible moment. If you're going to be borrowing cash to buy (as most people will) then you should be thinking really, really carefully about getting into debt to purchase a house right now.

On the other hand if you've got lots of money to spare and can afford to buy with cash then be my guest - although you'll be kicking yourself for not waiting a year or two and saving tens of thousands.


Anyone thinking of getting into the London market:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7321948.stm

At least 10,000 jobs could be lost in the UK's financial services industry during the next three months, according to a forecast by the CBI.

Like I say, the signs are there for anyone with two braincells to rub together.

carolt

Al_Mac wrote: »

There is one word. "COULD", doesn't mean will.

If they said 'WILL' you'd rightly kick them out of town for prophesying without the aid of a crystal ball. All they can do is predict on the basis of the evidence available. That's their job, that's what they're paid to do.

What's your job, that you know better?

Can you name ANY serious financial experts currently predicting UK property prices are going to rise in the next couple of years?

No?

Thought not.

m00m00

Stuart Law at Assetz


oh wait, you said serious.

snarffie

carolt wrote: »

If they said 'WILL' you'd rightly kick them out of town for prophesying without the aid of a crystal ball. All they can do is predict on the basis of the evidence available. That's their job, that's what they're paid to do.

What's your job, that you know better?

Can you name ANY serious financial experts currently predicting UK property prices are going to rise in the next couple of years?

No?

Thought not.

Problem is that anybody with two brains cells to rub together will know that, although they are paid to do this, it doesn't mean that they will be right.

People who have been 'paid to do this' have been making WILDLY incorrect predictions since I started househunting in 2001. They were predicting 40% falls back then. HPC doomsayers were telling me that I was an idiot for buying back then. I listened to what they said, but went ahead and bought in 2002. The so-called value of my house has doubled since then.

In all honesty this is a double edged sword because one day I'd like to move to a larger house, and would have to stretch to get there in the current climate. I also don't like seeing people having to get big multiples to buy their first house.

All I can say is that I've been enjoying my HOME for the last six years, glad I didn't listen to the experts, or the looneys on HPC.

carolt

Just not true. Back in 2001 or 2002, the vast majority of experts were NOT predicting a crash. Believe me, I was out there house-hunting with you at the time, and if we had thought prices were about to fall, we wouldn't have been doing that!

The reason I'm not looking to buy anywhere now, as a potential FTB, and would advise all potential FTB's to wait too, is because there are currently NO experts predicting prices will rise and ALL serious commentators predicting prices will fall.

You may not be happy to hear that the rises in equity you've been enjoying, unearned, for the last few years are going to stop, and indeed that you're going to lose some of the paper gains you've made.

But shooting the messenger won't make the message any less true, I'm afraid. :rolleyes:

Time to tighten the purse strings, I think...

Markyt

carolt wrote: »

Can you name ANY serious financial experts currently predicting UK property prices are going to rise in the next couple of years?

Not rising != falling.

Currently, the majority of lenders are positioning their business to manage a flat market for the next 18 months / two years, rather than a falling one. Of course, that may change with the next set of results, but until then CE have a finger in the air as much as everybody else.

dannyboycey

Making a prediction of a crash last year was like putting a bet on Arsenal to win the premiership. A good bet with a fairly good chance of winning. Predicting a crash now would be like having a £10 flutter on the sun rising tomorrow.

To say that the financial climate has changed dramatically in the past few weeks would be a massive understatement.

dannyboycey

Markyt wrote: »

Not rising != falling.

Currently, the majority of lenders are positioning their business to manage a flat market for the next 18 months / two years, rather than a falling one.

Really? What evidence is there of this? The likes of Halifax/Nationwide may say such things to the media.... but they would, wouldn't they. They can't come out and say "we are positioning ourselves for a big crash in prices", because they would be shooting themselves in the foot.

Tozer

I don't see a general crash happening anytime soon. I think it will be a correction of over-inflated prices - particularly in some areas - but not a sustained crash. The fundamentals (low and stable interest rates, currently high employment, strong demand for property) all point towards a flat market rather than a crashing market.