FTB's - don't buy now!

carolt

rizel23 wrote: »

Does anyone think prices will now rise with whats going on? If not why not just wait a year and see what happens, as it saves all this debate

Good question.

Will ANY of those criticising my original point - that NOW was a lousy time to be a FTB (not, please note, for the hard of thinking that no-one should ever, ever buy a house under any circumstances - which is about as far from what I am saying as mr b is from my idea of the ideal man... :rolleyes:) - actually stick their heads over the parapet and explain why they think - in contrary to all the evidence - that house prices AREN'T going to fall?

Precisely why/how was my original point wrong - enlighten me.

And no - don't resort to personal attacks on me.

Just answer the damn question.

WTF?_2

HammersFan wrote: »

Blimey. You are one angry person. Goodness me.

Not angry, just exasperated at your apparent unwillingness to actually debate the point at hand.

Personally, I'm smelling of financial roses. I thought about buying in about a year and a half ago but decided the market was just crazy and was close to the peak.

Buying (with large amounts of borrowed cash) close to the peak of the house market is never good for your financial health, regardless of what the longer term trends in housing are. It's bad for your sense of wellbeing too knowing that a debt on a falling asset hangs over you.

Seems now that the market peaked around September/October 2007 so I'm glad I didn't squander my savings on providing an equity buffer for the lender as my expensive, borrowed-cash-to-buy asset depreciates. (Although deposits are presented as being there to protect you from negative equity, in effect they are there to keep the lender from losing money should the market go down, then you default and they repossess).

And with forecasts of a 20% nominal drop over two years becoming mainstream it's perfectly possible that with the amount I'm earning/saving combined with a very sizeable deposit stash accruing interest I will be within reach of buying mortgage free, which would be fantastic. Obviously subject to my job not being wiped out in an economic slowdown of course but nothing I can do about that.


So by all accounts accuse me of some gloating that my predictions to date have been correct but at least I'm trying to pass my luck on to FTBs and rookie investors by advising them not to stick there hands in the fire at this point in time.

dannyboycey

!!!!!!? wrote: »

I suppose I shouldn't be surprised that those who appear to be in denial of logical argument and incapable of a rational debate should resort to chucking mindless put downs. It's about all you are capable of, it would seem.

I think you've hit the nail on the head !!!!!!. They are literally incapable of contributing to rational debate, as in many cases, their own views have no basis in rationality! As soon as someone refers to real-world economic principles or political decisions that affect the housing market, they resort to woolly anecdotals and one-liners about "homes not investments". Personally, I love these guys - it's fair to say I have more than dabbled in the property markets over the years and done pretty well for myself... and whilst there are fools like this, my pockets will always be lined. Thanks

HammersFan

!!!!!!? wrote: »

Not angry, just exasperated at your apparent unwillingness to actually debate the point at hand.

Personally, I'm smelling of financial roses. I thought about buying in about a year and a half ago but decided the market was just crazy and was close to the peak.

Buying (with large amounts of borrowed cash) close to the peak of the house market is never good for your financial health, regardless of what the longer term trends in housing are. It's bad for your sense of wellbeing too knowing that a debt on a falling asset hangs over you.

Seems now that the market peaked around September/October 2007 so I'm glad I didn't squander my savings on providing an equity buffer for the lender as my expensive, borrowed-cash-to-buy asset depreciates. (Although deposits are presented as being there to protect you from negative equity, in effect they are there to keep the lender from losing money should the market go down, then you default and they repossess).

And with forecasts of a 20% nominal drop over two years becoming mainstream it's perfectly possible that with the amount I'm earning/saving combined with a very sizeable deposit stash accruing interest I will be within reach of buying mortgage free, which would be fantastic. Obviously subject to my job not being wiped out in an economic slowdown of course but nothing I can do about that.


So by all accounts accuse me of some gloating that my predictions to date have been correct but at least I'm trying to pass my luck on to FTBs and rookie investors by advising them not to stick there hands in the fire at this point in time.

Your posts do come across as very bitter and angry (this one aside).

But people have been making predictions (that are stated with certainty) about a crash / correction for years. We still havent got one yet.

If as a FTB I had a decent deposit, and got a reduction of, say 10% when I went to buy, then I don;t see the reason not to go ahead. It will take a good while to see falls of 10% if they occur.

My main point has been that blanket statements about not buying - particualrly from people who have made bad decisions in the past - can't go unchallenged.

MissMoneypenny

HammersFan's like singing about blowing bubbles. It doesn't usually get them anywhere - all hot air and no do.:D

HammersFan

MissMoneypenny wrote: »

HammersFan's like singing about blowing bubbles. It doesn't usually get them anywhere - all hot air and no do.:D

I don't know about that, but fortune's always hiding (or so it seems).

MissMoneypenny

HammersFan wrote: »

I don't know about that, but fortune's always hiding (or so it seems).

Bubbles:-
Then like your dreams, they fade and die:D

WTF?_2

HammersFan wrote: »

But people have been making predictions (that are stated with certainty) about a crash / correction for years. We still havent got one yet.

Not quite - people have been warning that prices are overly high and that the whole thing is going end in a crash for years. Not the same thing as stating it's going to be this much on this date.

Right now, the overwhelming body of data suggests that a large drop off is imminent along with an economic slump. With prices being as mind-bogglingly high as they are (entailing that most people will need to borrow stupid amounts of cash to buy) then it's just not advisable to borrow-to-buy now.

HammersFan wrote: »

If as a FTB I had a decent deposit, and got a reduction of, say 10% when I went to buy, then I don;t see the reason not to go ahead. It will take a good while to see falls of 10% if they occur.

If prices keep falling by a moderate amount month on month then that 10% is going to be wiped out within a couple of years. That's best case, IMO. We are only just seeing the market change direction as it takes longer than a supertanker to turn. Then the owner is in negative equity and trapped. All very well if they can ride it out but even if they can it means worry and uncertainty.

HammersFan wrote: »

My main point has been that blanket statements about not buying - particualrly from people who have made bad decisions in the past - can't go unchallenged.

Again, since no-one has actually given a complete breakdown of how and when it is going to happen, what exactly are you arguing against ... That the market isn't about to turn down soon - the overwhelming evidence is that it is. Seems like it has been in decline since Q4 last year.

The only question is how steep and how long the downturn will be. I have no idea about that but I know I sure wouldn't be taking on a big debt to buy property at this moment in time. And I certainly would advise anyone thinking of doing so to think twice.

dannyboycey

HammersFan wrote: »

If as a FTB I had a decent deposit, and got a reduction of, say 10% when I went to buy, then I don;t see the reason not to go ahead. It will take a good while to see falls of 10% if they occur.

Cue the stupid post of the day bugle...

In many areas of the UK there have been falls in excess of 10% already!! Wake up and smell the coffee.

HammersFan

dolcevita wrote: »

To any FTBs out there :

Following the advice above would be very unwise, so ignore it.

The poster is obviously very silly and has not got a clue.



(this is an unblanket statement from someone who has made very good decisions in the past)

I guess only time will tell whether what I said was very unwise.

Very silly? Ooh that so cuts to the core.