Surviving the second Great Depression - Bob Beckman

ianmr65

John_Pierpoint wrote: »

Step two decide who to pick on -

I'm not sure we want missiles flying - My vote is for a ground force war, Mass conscriptions, and the whole EU / USA econ-industrial machine, targetting potentially resourse rich nations, , who won't really fight back.

to whit -
Canada - Wood, Minerals, the artic circle and geothermal energy
The scands, and iceland - see canada + finance
Sub saharan and south Africa - Gold and diamonds, farming.
Australia - Farming, undiscovered outback riches
New Zealand - sheep, butter, and access to the antartic.
South and central america - Llamas, and charlie...

At the same time stoke up China's expansionist plans, tibet, japan, the far east...re-energise Russia back to the glory days, so they annexxe the whole of easter europe back, together with the baltics, and siberia.

So then you have 3 major power blocks all fighting over, and in, the only part of the world that's left. The middle east.

Then a given block could have a loose alliance with another one, fighting the third in the egypt, suadi or wherever.

Perhaps our leader here could be a charismatic father figure....who's never seen in public, just on the TV: with two way cctv type cameras everywhere, and where the administration uses language that means pretty much the opposite of what is being said....

'War on terror'
'Ministry of Defence'
'Stable and sound economy'
'National Health Service'
'Ministry of Education'
'Welfare Reforms'
'Cutting back on civil service Spending'

Mine's a Victory Gin, at the Chestnut Tree Cafe.

earlgrey_3

chesky369 wrote: »

His stance on property was almost religious -

In his line that's usually the only way to get noticed. No one remembers or buys the books of those who said "There's a strong possibility... but on the other hand..." - even though their approach may have been most rational. To make the headlines the ambititious pundit never forgets that even a stopped clock is right twice a day. Was the simple truth that made good ol' Horace Batchelor rich.

Bazn

i also recommend "the boy who cried wolf" by Aesop. great story.

Yuri_Velasquez

I first read Beckman's book in 1984 and was convinced he was correct. I met an International accountant at the time who told me to read it at least twice.Well apart from a couple of hicups in 1987 and 1992.It never raelly happened as he described it.I met him at a Barbican lecture in 1985 and had quite a chat with him.My parting shot was,"Do you think the day will come when banks close their doors?"His answer,"Most probably."Well since that I have largely forgotten about the late Mr Beckman's dire warnings until this year. Especially the last couple of months.All I can say is - "Gentlemen, 'The Downwave' has finally arrived. Hold on to your hats !"

Buffbeard

Anyone spot the similarities between the pronouncements of the late (and in my view long ago discredited), Bob, and the current doom-monger maestro Peter Schiff.

With lots of YouTube posts and his own Firm's website, you will quickly conclude that he is having his day in the sun as the man who called the credit crunch/crash. Tempting to listen to his snakeoil sales pitch

He is still exhorting us to sell the house, all your shares, dollars whatever and run for the hills. Would love to sell his stock short over a three-four year period!

Hermanmunster_2

Beckman enjoyed an opulent lifestyle in Monaco, where he based himself permanently from 1987.

He is survived by his wife, Arlette.

Bob Beckman, investment adviser, was born on August 25, 1934. He died of cancer on December 6, 2007, aged 73

John_Pierpoint

ianmr65 wrote: »

I take your point, and i'm sure Bob was as pleased as anyone that his direst predictions didn't come to pass in his lifetime, despite what it meant for his reputation. reasons why are extremely eloquantly outlines in John Poierpoints post.

The fact is that Beckmans predictions were all about cycles and bubbles:
Beckman predicted an imminent 50- to 60-year overall slowdown in the world economy, with periodic upturns, and bubbles. His analysis was essentially correct but his timing was out, and has been borne out, subseqantly.

Since the early 1990's markets have been talked up and talked up by Optimists. Principally property, stock and shares, and latterly credit, and securities.
Have a look at the Property threads on this MSE boards They've had to ban new 'house price crash' threads, and consolidated them all into one. That thread runs to 100 pages, with 100,000 views. The property market has been talked up the most.
House !!!!!! on TV, disingenous house price reporting from the all vested intrests. There are al lot of seriously worried people out there.

Beckman's book outlined causes, effects and what you should do to protect yourself, when the 'big one' hit. Well i think the big one is now.
His advice today would be I think : : sell unit trusts, shares, property bond, hedge fund holdings, and property. Rent, or find a house that you want to live in for the long term. Get rid of as much debt as you can. And put your money into gilts, gold and commodities, or on deposit, with the safest bank you can find.

Congratulations Buffbeard on reviving this thread, even if you did not bother to read it.
This was written six months before Leman Bros. went bust and the solids hit the air-conditioning.
It shows how far ahead of the curve the doom and gloom posters in this part of the forum where.
I remember trying to extract the Michael from a poster who was telling everyone to put their money into gold - as I put the maximum allowed into inflation proof Natonal Savings. Methinks I owe a big apology to that poster and only wish I had taken his advice.

Goes anyone have any idea what is going to happen to our bombed out economy next? Don't listen to me, all the nasties and some more that I forecast have come true, but we are now in a fairy land, subsidised by those foolish enough to have savings in fiat currency as governments, USA & UK in particular, print money that China promptly puts under the floorboards after buying a BMW with a little of it.

John.

PS Talking of TLA's of which BMW is apparently a particularly auspicious one, can anyone explain why "grass mud horse" is a Chinese internet "joke" against government attempts to control the interweb - the equivalent of proving to the French that you still have the two fingers needed to draw back the string of a long bow?

pqrdef

Well it's not just bubbles and cycles. Those things are part of the behaviour of a basically stable system. A loss of confidence leads to a slowdown, the government injects a bit of stimulus and things recover.

But we're still in the middle of the industrial revolution, which is changing the world more radically than anything since the invention of agriculture. If the lifestyles of other species are described as part of their biology, then industrialisation is changing human biology, as much as if birds stopped building nests. And the revolution didn't end when the West got industrialised, the rest of the world still has to catch up.

Paradoxically the immediate result is the demise of Western manufacturing. The end of GM is more iconic than the failure of Lehmans. Western economies are being driven, since about 15 years ago, not by normal cycles but by the increasingly desperate efforts of the U.S. to avoid mass unemployment, now that everything is made in China.

So we've had a long campaign of negative real interest rates, and two dollops of QE, blowing up bubbles everywhere, each cycle shorter than the last, faster rise and sharper fall. We've been astonished at the resources that governments and banks could find, or pretend to find, for the last round of bail-outs, but that trick can't be repeated because everybody is now at the end of their rope.

And it isn't working. American manufacturing isn't going to get back to where it was. The next shock to the system will decimate what's left of it.

And while a good dose of redistribution could take the sting out of unemployment, of course that isn't going to happen. Instead, the voters swing to the Right as America scarily repeats the mistakes of Europe in the Thirties.

Could go any way. I.T. is the best hope for supporting a ballooning population by increased productivity. Robotic factories will be fantastic creators of wealth for their owners, but they won't provide mass employment in a democratic society. Maybe we'll return to the traditional order where a small minority of free men had large retinues of servants and slaves, earning their keep by indulging their masters' whims. The main mistake made by those who forecast change is to assume that other things won't change.

Traditionally the answer to chaos is to buy things that have real value. The list above includes cash and gold, but I'm not sure about either of those. We thought currency was a zero-sum game, but it looks like competitive devaluation just drags them all down together. And gold is only useful if you're selling when other people are buying, it'll be worthless after a global collapse.

Land? Can't go wrong with an oilfield, or any land with natural resources under it, or just land for housing or even farming. The ultimate finite resource. Long-term though. It was always land when people didn't live long but worried about their descendants. Not so much use as a pension pot. And anyway, governments have learnt that you can nationalise land, or the minerals under it. Unlike gold, you can't squirrel it away and pretend you havent got it.

Short-termism I think. We're better informed and more liquid than ever before. We can trade a variety of asset classes in many parts of the world in a matter of minutes at rather low cost. We needn't be fearful if we stay flexible and responsive and avoid getting tied up, and get out of whatever we're in at the first sign of trouble without waiting to see how bad it is. Cash at least has the merit that it's unlikely to lose 10% of its value in a week without warning, and there aren't too many things you can say that about.

Whatever markets do, there are plenty of opportunities to make 1% in a week, and 5 of those a year covers inflation at 4.6%. In fact big money is already being made in microtrading. Not yet available as an OEIC or even an ETF as far as I know, but I've got money waiting.

Hermanmunster_2

Yes sorry to drag this old chestnut back up but I was just looking up what happened to Bob Beckman and in one of the replies to my googling was this interesting thread started before the downturn really took hold.

I thought maybe anyone interested would wonder what happened to Bob Beckman so I posted his brief obituary details. I first read the DOWNWAVE in the1980s and was convinced that it all made sense (basically the waves theory) and became convinced that on day there would be the modern equivalent of a re run of the 30s crash and started preparing for it. It never came!


Well it took 25+ years for the Downwave to finally hit us and of course Bob never lived long enough to see it unfold. Looking at the Downwave now it’s clear Bob was way far ahead of his self with the timing of his predictions. But it’s all happening now just as he said 30 years ago.

Hermanmunster_2

pqrdef wrote: »

Well it's not just bubbles and cycles. Those things are part of the behaviour of a basically stable system. A loss of confidence leads to a slowdown, the government injects a bit of stimulus and things recover.

But we're still in the middle of the industrial revolution, which is changing the world more radically than anything since the invention of agriculture. If the lifestyles of other species are described as part of their biology, then industrialisation is changing human biology, as much as if birds stopped building nests. And the revolution didn't end when the West got industrialised, the rest of the world still has to catch up.

Paradoxically the immediate result is the demise of Western manufacturing. The end of GM is more iconic than the failure of Lehmans. Western economies are being driven, since about 15 years ago, not by normal cycles but by the increasingly desperate efforts of the U.S. to avoid mass unemployment, now that everything is made in China.

So we've had a long campaign of negative real interest rates, and two dollops of QE, blowing up bubbles everywhere, each cycle shorter than the last, faster rise and sharper fall. We've been astonished at the resources that governments and banks could find, or pretend to find, for the last round of bail-outs, but that trick can't be repeated because everybody is now at the end of their rope.

And it isn't working. American manufacturing isn't going to get back to where it was. The next shock to the system will decimate what's left of it.

And while a good dose of redistribution could take the sting out of unemployment, of course that isn't going to happen. Instead, the voters swing to the Right as America scarily repeats the mistakes of Europe in the Thirties.

Could go any way. I.T. is the best hope for supporting a ballooning population by increased productivity. Robotic factories will be fantastic creators of wealth for their owners, but they won't provide mass employment in a democratic society. Maybe we'll return to the traditional order where a small minority of free men had large retinues of servants and slaves, earning their keep by indulging their masters' whims. The main mistake made by those who forecast change is to assume that other things won't change.

Traditionally the answer to chaos is to buy things that have real value. The list above includes cash and gold, but I'm not sure about either of those. We thought currency was a zero-sum game, but it looks like competitive devaluation just drags them all down together. And gold is only useful if you're selling when other people are buying, it'll be worthless after a global collapse.

Land? Can't go wrong with an oilfield, or any land with natural resources under it, or just land for housing or even farming. The ultimate finite resource. Long-term though. It was always land when people didn't live long but worried about their descendants. Not so much use as a pension pot. And anyway, governments have learnt that you can nationalise land, or the minerals under it. Unlike gold, you can't squirrel it away and pretend you havent got it.

Short-termism I think. We're better informed and more liquid than ever before. We can trade a variety of asset classes in many parts of the world in a matter of minutes at rather low cost. We needn't be fearful if we stay flexible and responsive and avoid getting tied up, and get out of whatever we're in at the first sign of trouble without waiting to see how bad it is. Cash at least has the merit that it's unlikely to lose 10% of its value in a week without warning, and there aren't too many things you can say that about.

Whatever markets do, there are plenty of opportunities to make 1% in a week, and 5 of those a year covers inflation at 4.6%. In fact big money is already being made in microtrading. Not yet available as an OEIC or even an ETF as far as I know, but I've got money waiting.

Bobs motto was “Cash is King in the Downwave” and I set off thinking this was going to be the way forward as deflation took hold but now I am not so sure . We seem to have inflation and deflation operating at the moment and it could go either way.