Premium Bond Winner ?

1socrates1

I have a purely hypothetical question to ask. Let's say that the interest rate that ns&i for premium bonds needed to match was 6% and they did away with most of the lower tier prizes, the lowest now being 25,000. What would a possible prize distribution look like, bearing in mind the interest rate, and what would the chance of attaining a prize at each of the tiers that have been left over? I am just curious.

EssexHebridean

Sg28 said:

EssexHebridean said:

Swipe said:

EssexHebridean said:

Nowt for me again, and mine have now been requested for withdrawal

The results for low value prizes aren't out until tomorrow 

Yep, I realise that. I thought the draw had already taken place though (I thought it was first thing on the draw day)? Realistically if not then chances are we'd have nabbed another £25 at most so not the end of the world! 

Theres more chance you'll win a £100 or a £50 than a £25

Not on our current track record it's not. We have only ever won £25 at a time, and only ever a single win in a month. I know about the statistical likelihood, but in our case, we sadly have definitely been "below average luck" throughout most of our time holding them! 

fabsaver said:

EssexHebridean said:

Swipe said:

EssexHebridean said:

Nowt for me again, and mine have now been requested for withdrawal

The results for low value prizes aren't out until tomorrow 

Yep, I realise that. I thought the draw had already taken place though (I thought it was first thing on the draw day)? Realistically if not then chances are we'd have nabbed another £25 at most so not the end of the world! 

It's never been entirely clear to me at what point early in the month a withdrawal can be safely made without affecting the draw entry. Like you I'd assume a withdrawal today would be ok as the draw should have already taken place.

If withdrawing the month before there is an option to defer until after the next draw. However ticking that box for a withdrawal on the 1st of the month will defer the withdrawal until the following month, even when the draw hasn't actually take place yet.

Does anyone know this for sure or able to find the information on the NS&I website?

Yes - it was the fact that I thought the draw should already have been made that I based my withdrawal time on - I presumed that if we'd been selected for a prize, then we would still receive it even though the bonds have been withdrawn on the day of the draw. 

I too assumed that ticking the "defer until after next draw" option would mean they would then stay in for the August draw - which wasn't what I wanted! 

justwantedtosay

Eirambler said:

What would be the approximate prize value for August for someone with a full holding, leaving aside the high value prizes that you are unlikely to ever win - would it be around 3.3% now?

For a full year at the new rates I make it 3.2% and £1,600 for the lower value prizes but you can now reasonably expect a bigger prize every three years, though it's most likely to be £500 and very unlikely to be more than £1,000. Ignoring the £5,000+ prizes the rate should be about 3.6% over the longer term.

I know it doesn't work out this neatly but you can hope for 8x25, 9x50, 9x100 and one bonus small prize per year, so more than two a month.

Sg28

EssexHebridean said:

Sg28 said:

EssexHebridean said:

Swipe said:

EssexHebridean said:

Nowt for me again, and mine have now been requested for withdrawal

The results for low value prizes aren't out until tomorrow 

Yep, I realise that. I thought the draw had already taken place though (I thought it was first thing on the draw day)? Realistically if not then chances are we'd have nabbed another £25 at most so not the end of the world! 

Theres more chance you'll win a £100 or a £50 than a £25

Not on our current track record it's not. We have only ever won £25 at a time, and only ever a single win in a month. I know about the statistical likelihood, but in our case, we sadly have definitely been "below average luck" throughout most of our time holding them! 

fabsaver said:

EssexHebridean said:

Swipe said:

EssexHebridean said:

Nowt for me again, and mine have now been requested for withdrawal

The results for low value prizes aren't out until tomorrow 

Yep, I realise that. I thought the draw had already taken place though (I thought it was first thing on the draw day)? Realistically if not then chances are we'd have nabbed another £25 at most so not the end of the world! 

It's never been entirely clear to me at what point early in the month a withdrawal can be safely made without affecting the draw entry. Like you I'd assume a withdrawal today would be ok as the draw should have already taken place.

If withdrawing the month before there is an option to defer until after the next draw. However ticking that box for a withdrawal on the 1st of the month will defer the withdrawal until the following month, even when the draw hasn't actually take place yet.

Does anyone know this for sure or able to find the information on the NS&I website?

Yes - it was the fact that I thought the draw should already have been made that I based my withdrawal time on - I presumed that if we'd been selected for a prize, then we would still receive it even though the bonds have been withdrawn on the day of the draw. 

I too assumed that ticking the "defer until after next draw" option would mean they would then stay in for the August draw - which wasn't what I wanted! 

Its only more likely to hit 50 or 100 than 25 as from this draw. Before this the £25 was the most likely.

SouthCoastBoy

I'm thinking of cashing in one of our 50k lots of premium bonds, when rates were low it wasn't much of an issue as the return was so dire on 12 mth fixed income accounts, but now you can get greater than 5% it suddenly becomes more focussed.

justwantedtosay

1socrates1 said:

I have a purely hypothetical question to ask. Let's say that the interest rate that ns&i for premium bonds needed to match was 6% and they did away with most of the lower tier prizes, the lowest now being 25,000. What would a possible prize distribution look like, bearing in mind the interest rate, and what would the chance of attaining a prize at each of the tiers that have been left over? I am just curious.

That's beyond me, but if you had 50,000 bonds and the rate were 6% you should hope for £3k pa, so if the average prize was about £46k, which is the average of the £25k+ prizes now, then I guess you're looking at one win every 15 years, which isn't much worse a chance than a £1k prize now, but you wouldn't have won all the smaller prizes while you're waiting. There'd probably be too great a chance of going a lifetime without winning anything, even with quite a lot of bonds, though the chance of a really big prize would presumably be much better than it is now.

I can't imagine I'd take such poor odds even if the prize were so much better - I doubt I'll live another 15 years! It would be a great arrangement for the lucky but a terrible one for the unlucky - and for the small 'investor'. (I can't think of PBs as an investment.)

RedImp_2

This thread should become a lot quieter then with all these people cashing their holdings in.  Although seems some people like to still come on here and offer their advice 

2010

RedImp_2 said:

This thread should become a lot quieter then with all these people cashing their holdings in.  Although seems some people like to still come on here and offer their advice 

It won`t be quite from tomorrow when we have the monthly.

" I won X amount on X amount holding".

and "Nothing this month on X amount holding".

cymruchris

SouthCoastBoy said:

I'm thinking of cashing in one of our 50k lots of premium bonds, when rates were low it wasn't much of an issue as the return was so dire on 12 mth fixed income accounts, but now you can get greater than 5% it suddenly becomes more focussed.

If the guaranteed 4%+ return on your savings is more important than the 'chance' to win a larger prize - then go for it. We all have to balance what's most important to us. Short term it's likely your 4% savings will outperform the premium bonds, but if your number happens to be one that comes up on the big old lottery that always guarantees you don't lose your original stake - would you kick yourself if it 'could have been you' but you opted for the £X a month interest instead? We should all decide whether Premium Bonds are right for us based on what's most important. I know mine will be out in a couple of months as I'm buying a property - but until then, I'll be leaving them right where they are for that 'chance' rather than the £X a month interest.

cymruchris

2010 said:

RedImp_2 said:

This thread should become a lot quieter then with all these people cashing their holdings in.  Although seems some people like to still come on here and offer their advice 

It won`t be quite from tomorrow when we have the monthly.

" I won X amount on X amount holding".

and "Nothing this month on X amount holding".

And when many of those 'I'm going to take my money out' see all the winners - and the odd person saying (as last month) that they've won a decent prize - lots will keep them in 'just for another month' to see what happens (rinse and repeat!! )