Premium Bond Winner ?

justwantedtosay

1socrates1 said:

I have a purely hypothetical question to ask. Let's say that the interest rate that ns&i for premium bonds needed to match was 6% and they did away with most of the lower tier prizes, the lowest now being 25,000. What would a possible prize distribution look like, bearing in mind the interest rate, and what would the chance of attaining a prize at each of the tiers that have been left over? I am just curious.

That's beyond me, but if you had 50,000 bonds and the rate were 6% you should hope for £3k pa, so if the average prize was about £46k, which is the average of the £25k+ prizes now, then I guess you're looking at one win every 15 years, which isn't much worse a chance than a £1k prize now, but you wouldn't have won all the smaller prizes while you're waiting. There'd probably be too great a chance of going a lifetime without winning anything, even with quite a lot of bonds, though the chance of a really big prize would presumably be much better than it is now.

I can't imagine I'd take such poor odds even if the prize were so much better - I doubt I'll live another 15 years! It would be a great arrangement for the lucky but a terrible one for the unlucky - and for the small 'investor'. (I can't think of PBs as an investment.)

RedImp_2

This thread should become a lot quieter then with all these people cashing their holdings in.  Although seems some people like to still come on here and offer their advice 

2010

RedImp_2 said:

This thread should become a lot quieter then with all these people cashing their holdings in.  Although seems some people like to still come on here and offer their advice 

It won`t be quite from tomorrow when we have the monthly.

" I won X amount on X amount holding".

and "Nothing this month on X amount holding".

cymruchris

SouthCoastBoy said:

I'm thinking of cashing in one of our 50k lots of premium bonds, when rates were low it wasn't much of an issue as the return was so dire on 12 mth fixed income accounts, but now you can get greater than 5% it suddenly becomes more focussed.

If the guaranteed 4%+ return on your savings is more important than the 'chance' to win a larger prize - then go for it. We all have to balance what's most important to us. Short term it's likely your 4% savings will outperform the premium bonds, but if your number happens to be one that comes up on the big old lottery that always guarantees you don't lose your original stake - would you kick yourself if it 'could have been you' but you opted for the £X a month interest instead? We should all decide whether Premium Bonds are right for us based on what's most important. I know mine will be out in a couple of months as I'm buying a property - but until then, I'll be leaving them right where they are for that 'chance' rather than the £X a month interest.

cymruchris

2010 said:

RedImp_2 said:

This thread should become a lot quieter then with all these people cashing their holdings in.  Although seems some people like to still come on here and offer their advice 

It won`t be quite from tomorrow when we have the monthly.

" I won X amount on X amount holding".

and "Nothing this month on X amount holding".

And when many of those 'I'm going to take my money out' see all the winners - and the odd person saying (as last month) that they've won a decent prize - lots will keep them in 'just for another month' to see what happens (rinse and repeat!! )

inkydolphin

I've won nothing this month...

sugar_daddy1237

inkydolphin said:

I've won nothing this month...

How do you know?

TadleyBaggie

I always check just after 11:30 pm but then remembered I’m currently on a cruise ship running on European time! Another hour to wait…

poppystar

Just £25 this month🙁. My winnings seem to go down as the interest rate goes up. Ah, well, I guess all the premium bond naysayers are right….but I’ll still keep the money in for August and beyond….

TadleyBaggie

Me: nothing on a 25k holding
Wife: £150 on 41k holding