Premium Bond Winner ?

eskbanker

justwantedtosay said:

eskbanker said:

justwantedtosay said:

Do we know how the August prizes will be shared out yet? I'm guessing it must mean that there will be proportionally more smaller prizes and fewer blank months...?

Not sure why you'd expect proportionally more smaller prizes, but the split by value of the prize pot remains at 10/10/80% between high/medium/low prize bands (where low is £25/50/100).

Because, ignoring the change in rate, if the odds have improved there must be more prizes, which therefore must have a lower average value, which can only be done by increasing the number of smaller prizes.

While the 'lower value' prizes together still account for 10% of the fund they've increased the proportion of £25 prizes against those of £50 and £100 meaning the average value of a prize will drop from £74 to £73.33 - despite the rate rise - though you will stand a better chance of winning one and, hopefully, of having fewer winless months.

There are 9.2% more prizes overall, and 9.2% more lower value ones, but 13.2% more £25 prizes while only 7.5% more £50 and £100 prizes. The same amount of money, again ignoring the rate rise, is split between more winners.

There are 8.6% more £5,000 prizes and 8.2% more £500s in August compared to July. I guess the difference is down to there being no change in the number of £1m prizes meaning the number of £5k - £100k prizes has increased disproportionately.

I think it's strange that they continue to lower the chances of winning a medium value prize compared those of winning lower or higher value ones as most people, even those with a full holding, won't ever win a big prize - £5k or more - and aren't greatly impressed by winning a small one, but £1,000 would be a good win and actually not that remote a chance, at least if the number of medium prizes had gone up in line with the others - well, between £50 and £100,000 anyway.

Lord, I hope I have got my sums right!

The prize allocation page you referred to explains their methodology, which is driven by various hierarchical rules about subdividing the prize pot by value (which remains at the same 10/10/80% for their definition of high/medium/low) and then how they split them within each band, but, given the fixed number of £1m prizes, they clearly can't increase each of the other prize levels evenly by exactly the same percentage.

justwantedtosay

eskbanker said:

justwantedtosay said:

eskbanker said:

justwantedtosay said:

Do we know how the August prizes will be shared out yet? I'm guessing it must mean that there will be proportionally more smaller prizes and fewer blank months...?

Not sure why you'd expect proportionally more smaller prizes, but the split by value of the prize pot remains at 10/10/80% between high/medium/low prize bands (where low is £25/50/100).

The prize allocation page you referred to explains their methodology, which is driven by various hierarchical rules about subdividing the prize pot by value (which remains at the same 10/10/80% for their definition of high/medium/low) and then how they split them within each band, but, given the fixed number of £1m prizes, they clearly can't increase each of the other prize levels evenly by exactly the same percentage.

True, but I was only explaining why I thought the proportion of smaller prizes would have increased which you wrongly doubted.

And if you're arguing the toss about increasing each band by "exactly" the same amount, the chance of winning a mid range prize has gone up about 8-fold since early 2022 but that of winning a big prize is up 12-fold.

eskbanker

justwantedtosay said:

eskbanker said:

justwantedtosay said:

eskbanker said:

justwantedtosay said:

Do we know how the August prizes will be shared out yet? I'm guessing it must mean that there will be proportionally more smaller prizes and fewer blank months...?

Not sure why you'd expect proportionally more smaller prizes, but the split by value of the prize pot remains at 10/10/80% between high/medium/low prize bands (where low is £25/50/100).

The prize allocation page you referred to explains their methodology, which is driven by various hierarchical rules about subdividing the prize pot by value (which remains at the same 10/10/80% for their definition of high/medium/low) and then how they split them within each band, but, given the fixed number of £1m prizes, they clearly can't increase each of the other prize levels evenly by exactly the same percentage.

True, but I was only explaining why I thought the proportion of smaller prizes would have increased which you wrongly doubted.

Nothing wrong with my post, which related to the proportion of smaller prizes by value remaining constant!

onthebench

onthebench said:

My wife and I each had the full amount in PBs and have gradually been withdrawing to pay for a house renovation. Took the last £6000 out of my wife’s account this month but waited until after the draw date. 

Glad we did as I checked the app this afternoon. 

Two prizes. 

Prize 1 of 2: £25. 

Prize 2 of 2: £5,000. 

Just an update to this February win - a month or so ago by wife got a letter from NS&I telling her that her £25 prize had been increased to £50, as another drawn bond had been found to be invalid so hers had been bumped up the list. So actually a £5,050 total for that month.

We haven't won anything since then, unsurprisingly, as I have only slowly been rebuilding the PB pot by £500 a month or so having reduced it to zero. Up to £1800 in the draw for July but won't hold my breath just yet!

justwantedtosay

eskbanker said:

justwantedtosay said:

eskbanker said:

justwantedtosay said:

eskbanker said:

justwantedtosay said:

Do we know how the August prizes will be shared out yet? I'm guessing it must mean that there will be proportionally more smaller prizes and fewer blank months...?

Not sure why you'd expect proportionally more smaller prizes, but the split by value of the prize pot remains at 10/10/80% between high/medium/low prize bands (where low is £25/50/100).

The prize allocation page you referred to explains their methodology, which is driven by various hierarchical rules about subdividing the prize pot by value (which remains at the same 10/10/80% for their definition of high/medium/low) and then how they split them within each band, but, given the fixed number of £1m prizes, they clearly can't increase each of the other prize levels evenly by exactly the same percentage.

True, but I was only explaining why I thought the proportion of smaller prizes would have increased which you wrongly doubted.

Nothing wrong with my post, which related to the proportion of smaller prizes by value remaining constant!

Oh come on, you were responding to my post about numbers of prizes. You wrote, "more smaller prizes" - no mention of value just quantity.
Why not admit you got something wrong like I did when you pointed out my mistake?

eskbanker

justwantedtosay said:

eskbanker said:

justwantedtosay said:

eskbanker said:

justwantedtosay said:

eskbanker said:

justwantedtosay said:

Do we know how the August prizes will be shared out yet? I'm guessing it must mean that there will be proportionally more smaller prizes and fewer blank months...?

Not sure why you'd expect proportionally more smaller prizes, but the split by value of the prize pot remains at 10/10/80% between high/medium/low prize bands (where low is £25/50/100).

The prize allocation page you referred to explains their methodology, which is driven by various hierarchical rules about subdividing the prize pot by value (which remains at the same 10/10/80% for their definition of high/medium/low) and then how they split them within each band, but, given the fixed number of £1m prizes, they clearly can't increase each of the other prize levels evenly by exactly the same percentage.

True, but I was only explaining why I thought the proportion of smaller prizes would have increased which you wrongly doubted.

Nothing wrong with my post, which related to the proportion of smaller prizes by value remaining constant!

Oh come on, you were responding to my post about numbers of prizes. Why not admit you got something wrong like I did when you pointed out my mistake?

You didn't specify what you meant by 'proportionally' - I commented on proportionality to prize fund value, but if you meant proportional to number of prizes then yes, there are more smaller ones in the new breakdown....

justwantedtosay

eskbanker said:

justwantedtosay said:

eskbanker said:

justwantedtosay said:

eskbanker said:

justwantedtosay said:

eskbanker said:

justwantedtosay said:

Do we know how the August prizes will be shared out yet? I'm guessing it must mean that there will be proportionally more smaller prizes and fewer blank months...?

Not sure why you'd expect proportionally more smaller prizes, but the split by value of the prize pot remains at 10/10/80% between high/medium/low prize bands (where low is £25/50/100).

The prize allocation page you referred to explains their methodology, which is driven by various hierarchical rules about subdividing the prize pot by value (which remains at the same 10/10/80% for their definition of high/medium/low) and then how they split them within each band, but, given the fixed number of £1m prizes, they clearly can't increase each of the other prize levels evenly by exactly the same percentage.

True, but I was only explaining why I thought the proportion of smaller prizes would have increased which you wrongly doubted.

Nothing wrong with my post, which related to the proportion of smaller prizes by value remaining constant!

Oh come on, you were responding to my post about numbers of prizes. Why not admit you got something wrong like I did when you pointed out my mistake?

You didn't specify what you meant by 'proportionally' - I commented on proportionality to prize fund value, but if you meant proportional to number of prizes then yes, there are more smaller ones in the new breakdown....

So glad you were able to find a straw to clutch at, but obviously by "proportionally more smaller prizes " I couldn't have meant anything other than more smaller prizes in proportion to other prizes. We know the way the three bands are set hasn't changed.

You appear to have missed this; And if you're arguing the toss about increasing each band by "exactly" the same amount, the chance of winning a mid range prize has gone up about 8-fold since early 2022 but that of winning a big prize is up 12-fold.So not exactly exact.

I can't be bothered with this any more!

pbcpdeveloper

borefest said:

it’s sad I know but when the 1st lands on a weekend it really irks me💷🍀

Especially when the Monday is a Bank Holiday.

Calidad

Probably a bit of an impossible question to answer, but if say you put £10,000 in premium bonds is there much likelihood of winning anything? Or do you really need a full holding?

Does anyone have a similar holding? 

And if we put the money in this month, would be be eligible for August’s draw? 

Thanks.

2010

Calidad said:

Probably a bit of an impossible question to answer, but if say you put £10,000 in premium bonds is there much likelihood of winning anything? Or do you really need a full holding?

Does anyone have a similar holding? 

And if we put the money in this month, would be be eligible for August’s draw? 

Thanks.

https://www.nsandi.com/prize-checker/winners

If you look at last month`s big winners none of them had the full holding, most of them had below £10k.

Basically, it`s pot luck.