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Premium Bond Winner ?
Comments
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My 3 year old daughter has had £100 worth for 2 years. About 2 months ago she had her first win of £100 !
Re-invested in more bonds of course !Never buy a stupid dwarf -
Its not big and its not clever.0 -
viz ... thats brilliant ... a 100% return ....
not long now until the next draw ... !!!!0 -
I generally agree with Pal, but:Pal wrote:An example: You toss a coin ten times. If it comes up heads 10 times, you conclude the coin is dodgy. If it comes up 5 heads and 5 tails, you conclude that the coin is "fair". And yet both outcomes have the same probability of being generated entirely at random.Pal wrote:If you want a more frightening example of similar behaviour, visit Motley Fool and look at all the idiots who are attempting to come up with foolproof stock market investment methods based on the study of past performance charts.0
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I've got nearly £3K's worth of premium bonds. I started buying them in Sep 04 and have gradually built it up each month. I have yet to win a prize.
I have £K's in cash ISA's, savings accounts and investments, so my outlay in premium bonds is only a small percentage of my overall portfolio. I'm prepared to stick with the bonds for a while, as you never know...Please call me 'Kazza'.0 -
Stonk wrote:I generally agree with Pal, but:
Not a good example! The probability of 10 heads from 10 throws is far far lower than the probability of 5 heads + 5 tails, because there's only 1 way of getting 10 heads (HHHHHHHHHH), whereas there are many ways of getting 5 of each (HHHHTTTT, HTHTHTHTHT, THTHTHTHTH, etc, etc).
I believe there's somthing in this kind of analysis, but not quite for the reasons those idiots think. If enough people do technical analysis and act upon it, it will start to become self-fulfilling. For instance, if enough people think that after a share drops 20% and regains 5% it will then drop a further 20%, then their actions will tend to cause this to come true.
You are, of course, correct. Teach me to write in a hurry and forget all those normal distributions I studied years ago!
The point I was making however was that both are examples of random outcomes but each could lead to a different conclusion being drawn if people were data mining: drawing conclusions from data rather than agreeing a reasonable theory and testing it with data.
Another great example of data mining at work is being discussed on the discussion board at the moment:
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=86397&page=11 -
Have got 25 k in bonds and have won around £1600 this year making it a better investment than a top paying savings acc.
Biggest win was £1000 last month which paid a wad off my credit card
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pennies2pounds wrote:Have got 25 k in bonds and have won around £1600 this year making it a better investment than a top paying savings acc.
Biggest win was £1000 last month which paid a wad off my credit card
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Reaper wrote:The story that newer bonds win more prizes than older ones is a myth that had been going almost as long as premium bonds.
There is a denial of that and other rumours here.
But if you are convinced despite all the evidence to the contrary then simply sell up and re-invest.
Thanks Reaper GOOD READING !!!! :beer:!!!!!!There are More Questions Than Answers!!!!!!:eek:
:search: But I Just Don't Have Any Answers :idea:0 -
Selling up and reinvesting is plain stupid (I suppose that's to be expected from people who believe newer bonds have a better chance of winning). You lose a minimum of 2 months' draw entries. If you do this with £30K worth of bonds, you lose an expected £81.25.0
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Stonk wrote:What the hell are you doing with £25K in premium bonds if you have a credit card debt?!!
Because I am paying my card debt off slowly @ 0 % - or I could of course pay off the card and only have 22K in bonds with 3000 less chances of winning !!!!1
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