Property -Views please

meanmachine_2

Surely, high house prices are just a hangover from the dotcom boom/crash, and the US slashing their int rates to 1%, combined with cheap Chinese imports.

Both of these factors are no more.

And homeowners, best not look at Japan unless you want a heart attack. The most densely populated country in the world - with some of the lowest house prices in the developed world.

Bumpy ride indeed.

Murray

I agree with lush walrus - there will always be some arguments for not buying property at a certain time but if individual circumstances dictate that now is the time then you might as well bite the bullet!

I would agree that now is not a good time to buy property as an investment but for somebody buying their first home (as in primary residence, whether they're FTB or not), IMO should go for it. After all these people are in it for the long haul and not to make a fast buck.

GreenB_2

meanmachine wrote:

Sadly, I'm beginning to think that the circumstances will never be right for me to buy, therefore I never shall. I'll probably just rent, then inherit a place in 25 years' time. It'll be much cheaper that way - for me personally anyway.

Who says you will inherit the house (or be able to afford to then)?
Who knows in 25 years time inheritance tax maybe 50% and you can't afford the 50% of the property left.... or indeed your relatives may have already sold the place as thier pensions had run out.

My view is if you can afford to pay the remortgage payments now (i.e. income - less expenditure on house and essential living costs > 0) then buy while you can!

Mr_Proctalgia

I have been following all these house price threads for a little while - And to honest I really do not know where prices are going. Down south its not looking so good, up north looks a bit better, and I'm in the middle. My place is shortly to go on the market, so I have a vested interest in getting the best price I can, then I will need to become a nay sayer when I buy again. The diffference is that I shall be looking for a Home, not an investment and it will be mortgage free too.

I liken it to buying a computer, they have only ever fallen in price, so why do we keep replacing them or upgrading? The best time to buy is either yesterday or tomorrow!
I guess thats human nature for you.

competitionscafe

greencat wrote:

The Grauniad reckons things could get nasty:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,3604,1544462,00.html

I'm a first time buyer too - but having looked at the latest Land Registry figures:

Grauniad!? interesting article, thanks for posting that.

"To get a broader perspective on the house price bubble, it is worth looking at other countries. Britain's bubble is far from unique. Indeed, it is clear that the wave of interest rate cuts around the world in the wake of the bursting of the dotcom bubble five years ago, which saw shares tumble 50%, created a boom in housing instead.

All across the rich world, with the exception of Germany and Japan, house prices have been booming. The United States, France, Spain and Ireland are just a few of the countries that have seen double-digit property price rises in recent years. The resultant increase in (largely illusory) wealth has been bigger than the dotcom bubble.

And the correction now seems to have started in Britain, Australia and the Netherlands. Prices are still steaming away in France and the US and many other countries, but the warning signs are flashing. Prices in Sydney are down 16% in two years, according to international comparisons done by the Economist. Why shouldn't that happen in London, where prices are already down 3-5% on some measures?"
source:http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,3604,1544462,00.html

Re the latest Land Reg figures:

"Lowest property price increase for a decade

The Land Registry has just released its quartlerly house price survey. It shows that house prices are advancing at their weakest rate in almost a decade. The average house price in England and Wales for the April to June period were just 5.4 per cent higher than at the same time last year.

The volume of sales in England and Wales decreased by 27.7 per cent from 299,986 to 216,890 for the same period in 2005, but this was smaller than the drop in sales seen in the first quarter. "
http://www.pfmagazine.co.uk/regulars/property-increase.htm

Article also has a section on "So what does the future hold for house prices?"
- consensus seems to be stagnation or falls of "up to 5%"
"one report recently suggested that house prices may fall up to five per cent over the next two years and won’t rise above their current levels until 2010"

"one of the report’s authors, said: “We are anticipating a soft market over the next two-or-three years. Fewer homes will sell, and prices will edge down, but they won’t collapse.”
http://www.pfmagazine.co.uk/regulars/property-increase.htm

'Wait-and-see' buyers shut down housing market, reveals Land Registry:
http://www.citywire.co.uk/News/NewsArticle.aspx?VersionID=76220&NewsPage=6

Re the "falls of up to five percent over the next two years" - according to the postcode search with that BBC article, in some areas (Warrington, Carlisle, Rutland, Vale Of Glamorgan) prices have fallen by twice that amount (10%) just in the last 3 months, so the 5 percent over 2 years prediction might be a bit optimistic? Biggest drop is Teesdale with a 20% drop in the last quarter. (And in Greater London prices have already fallen by nearly 5% in the past 3 months)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_depth/uk_house_prices/counties/html/counties.stm
[Although if you click on Counties it says Greater London +4.7%; if you click on Regions it says Greater London -4.3% ??? ]

To be able to afford to buy the place I am renting now though, the price would have to drop by about 50%!

meanmachine_2

To be honest, all of these predictions - whether they tell me what I want to hear or not - are all pretty useless.

Check out these same experts during the last crash and they are invariably wrong. In 1989, no chance of a crash...in 1991 prices will climb sharply...in 1994 prices will never recover...

I just think if something seems overpriced, it is. And if it doesn't come down in price, I won't buy it.

Like a plasma telly. I don't buy one now a) because I know they'll come down in price, and b) because they're bloody expensive anyway.

meanmachine_2

GreenB wrote:

My view is if you can afford to pay the remortgage payments now (i.e. income - less expenditure on house and essential living costs > 0) then buy while you can!

Buy while I can? Why? Am I still in danger of missing this mythical boat to Neverland that, once it sets sale, will never be seen again?

B*llocks.

If I don't buy now, I'll buy when the circumstances are right. And that boat I missed looks like it's sinking to me.

Anyway, all I see around me are stacks of new builds (empty), dozens of empty rentable properties and hundreds of houses that have been up for sale for months.

Yes, mustn't miss "the rush". Hurry hurry hurry! Don't miss the boat. Quick! If you don't buy now your "dream house" will double in value by next week!

nelly_2

Yeah that boat is turning into a Russian sub marine

$$$_12

nelly wrote:

Yeah that boat is turning into a Russian sub marine

LOL - nice one.