Property -Views please

FaTB

Sorry new to this, have already posted similar question to this but on the wrong forum.

I am assuming there are some financially switched on people on this site, so I would be interested to see what your views are on the property market at present.

I am a potential First time buyer, but have recently come across the two linked sites below. I realise the views on there are a bit one sided, but have still come to the conclusion that now is not a good time to buy.

I would really appreciate your views please.

http://www.firsttimebuyerhelp.co.uk/
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/

Doozergirl

You've come to the right place for an opinion - prepare to be inundated!

My view is that it's probably not the best time to buy, considering that if you'd bought five years ago you'd be feeling rather pleased with yourself. Time and careful research can find you a bargain though. If you see your purchase as a long term investment, then the price you pay now won't have much bearing on what it's worth when your mortgage is paid off.

deemy2004

Fall 4 to 5% over the next 12 months.

JanCee

On this board people who are fans of housepricecrash websites are usually convinced that prices are about to crash and these sites reaffirm their certainties. I'm in the "more of a soft landing" way of thinking but only time will really tell.

wibble68_2

FaTB wrote:

I am a potential First time buyer, but have recently come across the two linked sites below. I realise the views on there are a bit one sided, but have still come to the conclusion that now is not a good time to buy.

I would really appreciate your views please.

http://www.firsttimebuyerhelp.co.uk/
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/

housepricecrash.co.uk seems to post a complete range of views.

I suppose by name people think these sites are all about doom and gloom, but this is not so.

If the Halifax put out a report saying prices will go up in 2007 then this will appear along side a report from an economist who say's prices will continue to fall.

You have to do your own homework and come to your own conclusion.

Many ftb's are playing the waiting game. This is because for the first time in 10 years it's possible to save more than house price inflation.

If you're not desperate to buy then wait.

meanmachine_2

People believe what they want to believe to suit their particular circumstance.

On here I get attacked all the time by recent homeowners, Estate Agents and anyone whose living is tied up in inflated house prices. It suits them to hope/believe that prices will keep rising, or at least go nowhere.

I don't think prices are going to "crash" because they never crash. If they do go down, then they slide over a long period of time.

It's as likely that prices could be down 20% by 2008 as it is that they creep up slightly in that time. Sentiment is everything. There was no reason why house prices leapt in recent years. It wasn't logical, it was driven by greed and fear.

But rises of 20% per annum over the next few years? Can't see how that could happen, even if int rates are slashed (which they won't be, for various reasons).

But who knows? All I know is that prices are stupid and I can't and won't buy right now.

meanmachine_2

deemy2004 wrote:

Fall 4 to 5% over the next 12 months.

Nationally, that looks likely.

But it masks local variations. For example, I expect N Ireland to continue to benefit from the "peace dividend" which, in turn, will mask larger falls in areas that have seen inexplicable rises of late.

Meanwhile, places like London could do nothing, or fall only slightly.

lush_walrus

Buy when it suits you and most importantly buy what you can afford. Yes you can wait for the houses to crash, but it may or may not ever happen.

Buying houses is a long term investment, and ultimately over a period of x amount of years the prices will go up. The main worry with buying at the peak of the market is that you may well end up in negative equity (where the money owed on the property is more than the value of the property). If you make sure that you are able to afford repayments, and x amount extra on top and are willing to sit tight and stay put if the prices do go down, then there really isnt a problem.

I can remember 6 years ago a friend beign mis-advised that prices were going to slump when she was looking for a flat. She ignored it, and now her flat is worth approx £100,000 more than she paid. You can sit and wait forever on a prediction that no-one truely knows will happen.

If you can afford it and want to buy then forget peoples predictions.

meanmachine_2

Why would prices have slumped in 1999? You're right. That was stupid advice and ran counter to affordability and income/price ratios at the time.

If I could have bought in 1999, I like to think I would have done.

But 2005 prices are far removed from those of 1999, and an average property could have been bought on an average wage.

Not today. So the advice not to buy makes more sense. But as you say, no one knows, not even self appointed experts.

lush_walrus

Meanmachine I can see what you are saying, but the point is in 1999 that was the general advice, go back to archives of papers and that will be evident there too. 1999 was at a point simular to now, when prices slowed. There really are still no decreases in any of the areas I deal with in the SE, even though for the last year plus that is what people have been predicting.

In 1999, banks were strict that you could only borrow maximum of 4 times wages as an individual or 3.5 as a couple, rather than now when things are much much looser and realistically if you want to you can borrow amounts completely unrelated to your income (which people have done). Also there was no such thing as a BTL mortgage. So taking wages out of the equation, people can still afford to buy, and still are buying, beleive me our figures for June-July are actually up on last year across the board. But thats all by the by really the point I am trying to make is that long term throughout history no one has lost money through buying a house, only temporarily through negative equity or through being reposessed.

Which means if you can afford to pay your mortgage and can hold on tight if things get tough then there is no problem with buying at any time, as during the wait for the perfect time to buy 10 plus years of renting can go by.

meanmachine_2

Fair points.

But most prime lenders still only give you up to 4 times your salary. Only Abbey and NRock throw caution to the wind.

I don't personally remember a slowdown in 1999. I do remember one in 2001, and possibly you're right - at that time some were forecasting doom.

But the maths in 2001 and certainly 1999 made more sense than they do now.

I'm interested to hear that business is brisk. Which part of the world are you in again?

Nationally, sales have dropped by around 30%, so you guys must be the exception.