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Level to step in at when prices crash?
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Zammo wrote:I'm in a position to buy now but I'm going to wait until prices slump. I'm predicting that sentiment will change around about August time when the BOE have penciled in interest rate rises. A few more IR rises towards the end of 2006 and a glut of properties coming onto the market before HIPS should be enought to trigger the crash.
I reckon we should see prices bottoming out mid 2008. I just hope the recession isn't going to be so bad that the banks refuse to lend me any money!
:eek:
I can picture this guy right now, waiting for the result on every first Thursday of every month. Then cheering and clapping when the IR goes up.
There will also be others waiting to snap up a 'bargain'0 -
A tricky one, as when sentiment changes, people will hold off buying in the belief more falls are to come. And with a market as illiquid as property that could take years.
One could apply the old lending criteria of 3.5 times income, so for a FTB assuming average wage of 30K, wait till desired property hits 105K, then buy!
Historically with property cycles, the price trend has always dipped BELOW the 3.5 income line before troughing and returning to peak; I bought my first place in 1996 for around 2.5 times average salary in zone 2 LONDON. So if you're prepared to wait, who knows...0 -
JanCee wrote:More like groundhog day, same old arguments, same people involved.
Yeah, the usual suspects, eh Jancee?
Fortunately I wasn't here in 2004.0 -
van_persie wrote:I bought my first place in 1996 for around 2.5 times average salary in zone 2 LONDON. So if you're prepared to wait, who knows...
That was a generation ago. The entire economy has radically changed since then. We've evolved to a higher plane of being.
There are no more booms and busts. We're not greed driven like we were back in the 80s, you know.
Claiming that a FTBer should wait for the next downswing in the cycle is just wicked talk, you know that.
Meanwhile, back in the real world, the world economy starts gearing up for the new Inflation Age. Interest rates of 4.5% might seem like chicken feed.
But then, don't listen to me. I'm "mongering doom". People should ignore risks and borrow for Britain. Homeowners need YOU!0 -
I don't know what people are compaining about. Houses are more affordable than ever.A FTB can easily get "on the ladder" Why can't they get another job or two? Why bother lazing around at weekends? and as for holidays - thery're for wimps!Even if IR's go up that won't be a problem.
Aliance and Leicester have suggested that baserates will have to increase above 8% before we have a situation similar to that experienced in the last housing crash!
http://www.yougov.com/archives/pdf/XPJ060101001_1.pdf0 -
leave the funny side to meanmachine - it's the way he tells 'em0
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mystic_trev wrote:I don't know what people are compaining about. Houses are more affordable than ever.A FTB can easily get "on the ladder" Why can't they get another job or two? Why bother lazing around at weekends? and as for holidays - thery're for wimps!Even if IR's go up that won't be a problem.
Aliance and Leicester have suggested that baserates will have to increase above 8% before we have a situation similar to that experienced in the last housing crash!
http://www.yougov.com/archives/pdf/XPJ060101001_1.pdf
Ha. Go and read the threads on HPC about that report. It is full of contradictions and cherry picking of data.
I would say 5.5% to 6% rates would cause have the same effect as last time!0 -
F_T_Buyer wrote:Ha. Go and read the threads on HPC about that report. It is full of contradictions and cherry picking of data!0
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Woby_Tide wrote:people on HPC accusing a report of cherry picking data to prove a point?whats those phrases about stones, glass houses, pots, black, kettles
If rates had to get to 8.5% why are so many people loosing their homes now? Why are so many people in arrears? Why so many bankruptcies? Surely our interest only payments would be almost half of what they were compared to last time (as a % of our income) - yet we have so many problems today.
It's a piece of spin that excludes MIRAS, Self Cert and capital repayments. If we could really cope even at rates at 5.5% lets have them and see what happens. We need to curb the inflationary pressures anyway.
Another piece of 'news' to encourage more borrowing.0 -
FT BUyer, I think the main reason for bankrupcy & poeple losing thier homes now is because of too much debt full stop, not cos they cant really afford the moirtgage, more the credit cards, the HP, the lifestyle that is thought to be the norm, when it shouldnt be.
Yes, its all part of the theme, but if I wasnt in debt at all anymore, I could go for a further multiple of my salary, as I would have *spare* money.
Not that I would though, Im not that daft!:beer: Well aint funny how its the little things in life that mean the most? Not where you live, the car you drive or the price tag on your clothes.
Theres no dollar sign on piece of mind
This Ive come to know...
So if you agree have a drink with me, raise your glasses for a toast :beer:0
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