Over the next 10 years what do you think will do best, equities or commodities ?

rail.link

purch wrote: »

Yes, we could have a few Nelson Bunker Hunts in the making...

I think that there could be a case made for some inter-governmental intervention in the Soft Commodity markets if the continued speculative investing continues. The price and availability of these Commodities are so vital to the wellbeing of the World economy, that speculative bubbles cannot be allowed to grow and burst in these markets unchecked.

That's an excellent point, Purch. Thanks for pointing that out.

If the food markets aren't able to function for the purposes they were set up due to speculative excesses, then there could be major repercussions.

wombat42_2

rail.link wrote: »

Yes, I'm substantially out.





Nothing, until something looks interesting.

Why not Blackrock UK Absolute Alpha ? http://www.h-l.co.uk/fund_research/security_details/sedol/B11V7T6.hl

wombat42_2

purch wrote: »

Yes, we could have a few Nelson Bunker Hunts in the making...

I think that there could be a case made for some inter-governmental intervention in the Soft Commodity markets if the continued speculative investing continues. The price and availability of these Commodities are so vital to the wellbeing of the World economy, that speculative bubbles cannot be allowed to grow and burst in these markets unchecked.

............thats a shock !!!!

Purchy you missed the point. If what commodities guru Jim Rodgers says turns out to be true - that the Chinese currency quadruples against the US dollar in the next decade - the Chinese wont care very much about commodity price hikes.

Food costs took up a much higher proportion of peoples incomes, say, a century ago. Also in the last few years house prices have rocketed - there hasnt been any international action on that and i think having a roof over your head is as basic as having food.

aztec21

Speculating in commodities is not a recent phenomenon.

During the last commodities boom the same thing happened. Everyone was speculating in commodities. Then when the commodities bubble burst everyone forgot about them as an asset class and went back to investing in equities.

Now the cycle seems to be repeating itself.

wombat42_2

aztec21 wrote: »

Speculating in commodities is not a recent phenomenon.

During the last commodities boom the same thing happened. Everyone was speculating in commodities. Then when the commodities bubble burst everyone forgot about them as an asset class and went back to investing in equities.

Now the cycle seems to be repeating itself.

Historically commodity booms last about 12 to 15 years. Also allowing for inflation we are nowhere hear the values of the last peak and now we have many more people on the planet.

aztec21

Exactly. The commodities bull market has a long way to go.

I think ten years from now those that chose equities will find that they were very very wrong.

michaels

I'm glad there are so many on this thread who not only don't believe in perfect markets but are certain that they know which markets will out perform. Of course some will get lucky in the short term and put it down to skill....but others will buy in to the bubble just before the crash

cloud_dog

michaels wrote: »

Of course some will get lucky in the short term and put it down to skill....but others will buy in to the bubble just before the crash

.......... but isn't that the risk of investing - risk / reward. If you dont understand it, dont do it - not aimed at you personally

cloud_dog

purch

Purchy you missed the point. If what commodities guru Jim Rodgers says turns out to be true - that the Chinese currency quadruples against the US dollar in the next decade - the Chinese wont care very much about commodity price hikes

Not really............I was just musing on the point. Whether or not they would or could be sucessful is open to debate.

It hilarious how the womble thinks that only he has a position in his latest bandwagon ideas, and that he has to argue against everyone else. FYG Commodities both Hard and Soft have been a part of my portfolio (and most other experienced and sensible investors) for many years and will be long after you have jumped ship.

munk

Thought I'd throw this out there, was watching Newsnight on Monday (link valid for 6 days from this thread date) and they were talking about the global inflationary pressures and how they relate to the current credit crisis. From around 21min30secs the chap is saying:

The reason we've had inflation is because of (high) commodity prices (and) there's nothing much surer than the fact that commodity prices are now going down

Obviously completely out of context the above, need to watch the interview really to get the full context.

One of the other guys on this panel agreed with him so, time to bail on commodities if you're a momentum investor?