Over the next 10 years what do you think will do best, equities or commodities ?

wombat42_2

Over the next 10 years what do you think will do best, equities or commodities ?

meester

You forgot to mention BTLs. Didn't they used to be the route to sure-fire infinite wealth?

aztec21

The smart money has got to be in commodities at the moment. Have a look at the link below to see what Jim Rogers has to say about them:
Commodities Bull Market

I would also recommend reading his book Hot Commodities

wombat42_2

aztec21 wrote: »

The smart money has got to be in commodities at the moment. Have a look at the link below to see what Jim Rogers has to say about them:

Commodities Bull Market

I would also recommend reading his book Hot Commodities

What would be your commodity v equity split then ? The book was published in 2004 and it still seems to be holding up.

munk

Aren't commodities at the start of (or a few years into) a so-called supercycle that started around 2000 (EDIT: just read that jim rogers article and perhaps it was that that I was thinking of)? iirc the supercycle is set to last 23 years or so! Still you could say that about many asset classes if you cared enough to massage the stats as you wanted...

Personally I think that whilst inflationary pressures exist brought about from the rise of developing countries like India/China and their need for commodities (and the willingness of their people to pay for them), commodities will boom - so certainly for the next few years or so. But there has to be a point where this will end - probably when the BRIC countries' expansion starts to slow... so yeah maybe 20 years isn't unfeasible - though doubt it will be a smooth ride!

Jonbvn

As always, with any portfolio a wise investor should consider both equities & commodities.

wombat42_2

munk wrote: »

Aren't commodities at the start of (or a few years into) a so-called supercycle that started around 2000 (EDIT: just read that jim rogers article and perhaps it was that that I was thinking of)? iirc the supercycle is set to last 23 years or so! Still you could say that about many asset classes if you cared enough to massage the stats as you wanted...

Personally I think that whilst inflationary pressures exist brought about from the rise of developing countries like India/China and their need for commodities (and the willingness of their people to pay for them), commodities will boom - so certainly for the next few years or so. But there has to be a point where this will end - probably when the BRIC countries' expansion starts to slow... so yeah maybe 20 years isn't unfeasible - though doubt it will be a smooth ride!

The general view is that the supercycle for metals and energy started about 4 years ago but only started about a year ago for agriculture. This is useful in telling you how diferent commodites have faired over the last 10 years. At present the hottest commodities are grains:
http://www.etfsecurities.com/en/securities/etfs_performance.asp

cloud_dog

Oh dear, here we go agian.

lgyvnr

Newspapers are full of stories regarding the US econmic downturn and the UK credit crunch leading to the impending doom of UK economic recession. However, no one seems to be acknowledging what perhaps is a greater threat and is quietly brewing beneath the surface. The huge inflation of Cost of Goods incl. oil, wheat fuels and food goods etc.
I work for an FMCG company and in recent weeks I have witnesed huge budget cuts across the board. We are no longer spending with creative agencies, we have been told to cut back on T+Es, no offsite meetings or conferences etc. All due to the largest inflation in cost of goods we have seen for 100yrs. This is not unique to my company- every business that is based on food or farming industry is facing these challenges. The result will inevitably be that;
- we will have to pass the costs on to consumers
- the service industry incl. creative agencies/media etc will see cuts in Marketing spend.
As an individual, about to buy a house having secured a mortgage earlier this year I am worried and confused. It seems we are experiencing a frightening combination of economic challenges. Top down US Econmic downturn heading across the water and bottom up rising COGS and huge inflation. What will happen? Is this unique - or have we experienced and lived through this before? As consumers and individuals How worried should we be and what should we be doing to limit the risk to our own personal finances and investments? It feels like we are sitting on a time bomb.

aztec21

lgyvnr wrote: »

As an individual, about to buy a house having secured a mortgage earlier this year I am worried and confused. It seems we are experiencing a frightening combination of economic challenges. Top down US Econmic downturn heading across the water and bottom up rising COGS and huge inflation. What will happen? Is this unique - or have we experienced and lived through this before? As consumers and individuals How worried should we be and what should we be doing to limit the risk to our own personal finances and investments? It feels like we are sitting on a time bomb.

Do you really think now is the ideal time to buy a house?
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/walayat/2008/0208.html

purch

Doesn't it really depend on which Equities or which Commodities you invest in ??

I am certain of one thing.....Volatility in the commodities market will continue to be extreme, and probably get even higher, especially as more and more inexperienced and uneducated investors jump on and off the bandwagon.

I guess @ Womble HQ in SW19 everything is always 'Black n White'

Commodities Good
Equities Bad...........:rotfl: :rotfl:


P.S. I voted Equities, mainly due to the performance of the stock of companies who benefit from the Commodity 'bubble'