A REAL Mortgage Crisis Coming?

pinkshoes

ixwood wrote: »

Or what about the self employed plumber, that now can't get a (re)mortgage cos idiots turned self cert into lie to buy? "innocent" (in HPCer terms. lol) normal people are going to really suffer. Will that make you happy?

you sound very bitter about something.

i feel for those in rented accomodation who might be booted out if their landlord decides to sell due to all the scaremongering about a houseprice crash. Having to move when you don't want to sucks.

I have have no sympathy for those who didn't do their maths and borrowed beyond their means.

It's a tough world.

ixwood

I know this isn't the first time property prices have risen more slowly/stalled/dropped (depending on area), BUT this is the 1st time (that I know of in recent history anyway) that the worlds money system effectively broke and credit/money dissapeared.

This is not a HPC thread! It's part of it (especially of the rampant house growth was obviously cheap credit fueled), but it's more about the frozen money markets and more expensive money stuff happening, finally feeding through to real life.

Mortgages are dissapearing and all but the safest bets are going to have to pay for it!

Credit IS getting rarer, harder to get and more expensive.

ixwood

lol at being bitter. That's most HPCers as far as i can see.

As it happens, I'm alright Jack. I've just realised that mortgages are dissapearing quick and normal people are going to be seriously affected soon. No vested interest or axe to grind.

THIS IS NOT A HPC THREAD!!

adr0ck

Post Office are now doing a 3 yr fix at 5.34% with £399 fee LTV 95%

seems pretty good to me (the low fees a real winner)

ixwood

Good point. How fussy are they though, and for how long? The trend is definetly towards tighter criteria and more expense/less availablity depending on risk.

I recently remortagged to 5.15 myself, but I'm fortunate to be a good position within normal lending criteria. And the whole frozen money markets stuff hasn't really played out fullly yet. I did go for a long fix as I personally think Interest Rates are going to return to their historical norms soon.

The brokers on here will (and do) testify that they're struggling to find anything for more and more people these days.

Or, am I being paranoid, and it'll all be OK in the end? Will the credit crunch/contraction really just blow over?

adr0ck

ixwood wrote: »

The trend is definetly towards tighter criteria and more expense/less availablity depending on risk.

Or, am I being paranoid, and it'll all be OK in the end? Will the credit crunch/contraction really just blow over?

yes the trend is definitely towards tighter lending because house prices will stagnate over the next 4/5 years (real terms falls) so obvioulsy theres a bigger risk to the lender.

with regards to the credit crunch blowing over.....................i don't know..............i don't really understand it.......all i do know is that i keep getting letters through the door offering me new credit and the credit cards i do have keep giving me more credit................i personally would never dream of looking at a house that i couldnt afford a 10% deposit on................what credit crunch?

kingkano

ixwood wrote: »

Anyone else think half the country is up the creek without a paddle?

Just wanted to pick on this 1 point. Id doubt its half the country. Only 75% of houses are owned (I guess 25% rent?). And of those what portion are actually mortgage free or very low (under 50% ltv). With recent historical rises I'd say a good portion.

What portion are really bad credit or over 90% ltv. I would guess at tops 5% of the country? Maybe even as low as 2% 'of the country' will be in trouble at the moment.

If values fall by 10% then I see a larger portion obviously having trouble sourcing a new mortgage deal. But thats not yet.

ixwood

I'm not an expert, but seems like there's a financial meltdown in progress to me. Stuff unwinding all over the place, money/credit/debt dissapearing/getting more expensive, huge losses still unaccounted for and loads more to come, everyone trying to cover things up. Seems seriously bad to me. Any more informed people care to comment?

I think cheap debt as we know it (and everything buildt on that cheap credit) is going to be over and the chickens are coming home to roost.

PasturesNew

ixwood wrote: »

Assuming you've not a priced out bitter HPCer of course.

Not all HPCers are priced out ... or bitter.

ixwood

Good point KK. I still think a lot of current mortgages would not fit into 3.5 times salary, or 2.5 joint, 75% LTV, no affordabilty problems (especially if IRs go up a percent or 3) and excellent credit score/history.

After 10 years of house price growth and massive prices, most people I know would struggle to the readjustment in credit availibilty.

So the concenous seems to be there's nothing to worry about? It will be interesting to see how the whole credit contraction and financial crisis pan out. Is it just another blip that they have and average joe doesn't notice, or is this a real, more structual crisis this time?

I'd be pretty happy for it all to be OK, but my gut (relatively uninformed) feeling is things are going pear shaped.