Its Started London down 5.7% on last 1/4

pinkshoes

Well, according to the BBC thing, my flat has risen 22.7% in the last quarter, which doesn't mean a thing to me, as I have no intention of selling and giving up my home.

!!!!!!? wrote: »

Substantial drops in many areas (including an overall drop in London) means that the myth of rising prices has evaporated.

So are you saying that in the 100s of years that houses have been changing hands for money, prices haven't risen in general?? Not even if you plot a linear trend line of house price rises in line with recorded inflation? I'm sure in 20 years time my flat will be worth a little bit more than i paid for it.

MOST (normal/sensible) people see a property as security (rather than renting) and/or a longterm investment. If prices drop alot, and people have negative equity, then we'll probably see even more dodgy landlords renting their properties out rather than selling!

!!!!!!? wrote: »

Prime Minister First Class Gordon 'Hudson' Brown:
"That's it man, game over man, game over! What the **** are we gonna do now? What are we gonna do?"

Nah, he'll wait til the country is a complete disaster zone (we're getting there...) and THEN call a general election to let someone else pick up the pieces.

nobblyned

Funny how these numbers, supposedly from the LR, don't match the LR numbers.....

http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/houseprices/housepriceindex/report/default.asp?step=4&locationType=0&area=E%26W-ALL&reporttype=1&datetype=1&from1=01%2F2005&from2=12%2F2007&image2.x=21&image2.y=7

Any ideas?

merlinthehappypig

Looking at it again there are so few sales in some areas that these figures are almost meaningless.

Where we are buying, flats have gone up by 45.4% in the last quarter, but this is on just 12 sales.

Also they have detached houses in West Somerset down by 13.8% in the last quarter. I'm in favour of some reductions, but this is where we really wanted to buy and have looked extensively at detached houses in this area. 13.8% down is a joke.

ryandj

Well my area has gone up by 0.4% Wahey!

But it doesnt matter to me as we are not moving, and it would take a large drop before we head into negative territory.

In any case, if i moved it would be in the same area so the prices would all be down so it would not matter too much. Its just nice to think of the house being worth a lot more, if that makes sense.

nobblyned

nobblyned wrote: »

Funny how these numbers, supposedly from the LR, don't match the LR numbers.....

http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/houseprices/housepriceindex/report/default.asp?step=4&locationType=0&area=E%26W-ALL&reporttype=1&datetype=1&from1=01%2F2005&from2=12%2F2007&image2.x=21&image2.y=7

Any ideas?

Ah, got it, BBC not mix or seasonally adjusted unlike the LR figures above.

The BBC figures will mirror the Rightmove Q4 figures which showed a non adjusted large drop as all the smaller houses came on ahead of HIPS deadline. Only to be mirrored by a same size rise in January as the blip worked through.

Expect the BBC Q1 figure to reflect this too.

SquatNow

pinkshoes wrote: »

Prime Minister First Class Gordon 'Hudson' Brown:
"That's it man, game over man, game over! What the **** are we gonna do now? What are we gonna do?"

DAMMIT! You beat me to it!

This sounds like a House Price Crash thread?

STONE HIM!!! STONE HIM!!

Debt_Free_Chick

Careful ..... it's too large an area. When they say "your area" they mean the whole area covered by your Local Authority (Council). So it averages out the most and the least desirable locations.

In my area (Rother) that's "exclusive" villages mixed up with what are considered to be the "less desirable" areas of Bexhill and St Leonards - including a couple of notoriously unappealing housing estates, where ASBOs are considered to be a fashion accessory

No good for me .... it relies on LR figures and there hasn't even been a house on the market in my village for the last 2 years ..... But I have EAs coming around to value next week :eek:

WTF?_2

pinkshoes wrote: »

So are you saying that in the 100s of years that houses have been changing hands for money, prices haven't risen in general?? Not even if you plot a linear trend line of house price rises in line with recorded inflation? I'm sure in 20 years time my flat will be worth a little bit more than i paid for it.

No, I'm saying that the myth that you're onto a surefire investment winner with property which has again embedded itself in the public psyche over the last 7-8 years is about to be busted.

Long term, property prices go up more or less in line with increased earnings and inflation. If you buy at the wrong time near to the peak however, it might be quite some time before you see an increase in value. Bad news if for some reason you have to sell in the intervening time period. In any case, your investment is highly illiquid and subject to quite a high transaction cost should you decide to sell it.

pinkshoes wrote: »

MOST (normal/sensible) people see a property as security (rather than renting) and/or a longterm investment. If prices drop alot, and people have negative equity, then we'll probably see even more dodgy landlords renting their properties out rather than selling!

I think you'll find that there are a lot of none too sensible people out there who paid crazy money for property in the belief that its capital value would continue to increase substantially year on year. Either in the hope of getting an 'affordable' remortgage 2 years down the line when the LTV would be lower or in the belief that they could run it as a BTL with the rent subsidising their mortgage payments and the payoff coming when selling.

People in substantial negative equity will have no choice but to either grimly hold on and make sure they keep making the payments or face repossession and debt if they can't. If they are holding the property as a BTL then they are going to be hit by the double whammy of subsidising their tenant and seeing their asset lose a lot of its value at the same time.

pinkshoes wrote: »

Nah, he'll wait til the country is a complete disaster zone (we're getting there...) and THEN call a general election to let someone else pick up the pieces.

Brown should have called the election shortly after he took over from Blair. He was popular, things seemed to be going great (to the ignorant masses, anyway) and he had the perfect pretext for calling an early election. He'd almost certainly have got in with a comfortable majority and be sitting pretty until his five years were up.

Instead he dithered and now he'll be damn lucky to get in when he finally goes to the public at the very end of his allowed term in about two years. Someone like that shouldn't be leading a country if they bungle their own election chances.

free4440273

This is going to get nasty: more defaults, more people in arrears, more repossessions. Would love to believe the BofE does not panic and reduce rates even more - but they will. Deflation here we come: won't be as bad as the Great Depression:eek: : Government(s) will never that happen - even if it means bailing out the mortgage industry (think NR) - but it will be bad. Must be the pessimist in me:rolleyes:

Mods: Can you 'straighten out' this thread:rotfl: (make it readable). Thanks.

Debt_Free_Chick

nobblyned wrote: »

Funny how these numbers, supposedly from the LR, don't match the LR numbers.....

http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/houseprices/housepriceindex/report/default.asp?step=4&locationType=0&area=E%26W-ALL&reporttype=1&datetype=1&from1=01%2F2005&from2=12%2F2007&image2.x=21&image2.y=7

Any ideas?

In my case, the BBC figures show the average for my Local Authority - District Council. The LR figures show the average for the County Council.

Apples & pears ..... :mad: