BOE rates today 10/1/08 ?

superstar_2

So, whats the predictions MSEers? Down quarter percent more - first back to back drop in 6 years OR maintain it at 5.5%. I doubt they will be an increase, sadly!

Cast your votes, ladies and gentlemen! :beer:

beingjdc

I think the balance of probability is that they'll hold this month, with Sterling tanking, inflation above target and oil prices high, but it's a close run thing - I've put some money on a cut at the bookies where it's pretty much 50/50, just to compensate me for the interest I'll lose if they cut!

MoneySpanner

25 bps cut. I was thinking a 50 bps cut might even be on the cards a short while back, but now think 25 bps is the most they can possibly do. Still insane, inflation is gonna run riot whilst they fudge the basket figures this year.
If they do go for a hold (please!) then Feb could be a 25 to 50.
Total joke.

Forgetful

i want a rate where it will make sterling go stronger against the dollar!!!

Jonbvn

Forgetful wrote: »

i want a rate where it will make sterling go stronger against the dollar!!!

From what I have read in the press recently, I don't think you will get your wish.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;jsessionid=QARA4EY4R0AQNQFIQMFCFFWAVCBQYIV0?xml=/money/2008/01/09/bcnster109.xml
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/money/investment/article3136790.ece
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article3129003.ece

purch

i want a rate where it will make sterling go stronger against the dollar!!!

Unfortunately I don't think the BOE Base Rate is the biggest 'driver' of that market at the moment


HOLD !!!!

Aegis

If I were a betting man (ok, I AM a betting man from time to time, but not on this sort of event!) my money would be on "hold" this time. The MCP has a history of making small changes then giving them sufficient time to pan out before making any further changes. I rather doubt they'll abandon this approach and have 2 consecutive rate cuts when the problems may well be short term.

Of course, I would love them to cut the rate, as it knocks money off my mortgage repayments

isofa

I'd say hold, but in the extreme it'll be another .25 cut - how's that for hedging my bets, 90% of me says hold

Calchas

Holding rates satisfies monetary policy.

Cutting rates satisfies political policy.

Mervyn hasn't been reappointed yet!

It will be a political decision

I should point out before anybody rushes off to the bookmakers, my crystal ball is at the menders.

Milarky

Aegis wrote: »

The MCP has a history of making small changes then giving them sufficient time to pan out before making any further changes. I rather doubt they'll abandon this approach and have 2 consecutive rate cuts when the problems may well be short term.

Good point. They rarely make consecutive changes. But the expectation was always (from before the NR crisis etc) that they would cut rates in February. By last month's cut they had shown the carefully planned approach was in tatters. There must be a strong chance that they will simply 'bring forward' that cut from February to January this time (remember they changed rates in January last year but not February?)

I think the MPC are now a bunch of 'chancers' and will gamble on cutting early to stave off worse problems. They seem to have given up on inflation as their remit and turned to helping out the banking sector. Also, Mervin King wants to be re-confirmed as Governor. When he first became governor he cut rates (when they were right at the bottom) I think the man's a lightweight and can be pushed around by the others on the MPC

So, on balance, it's a cut of 0.25% brought forward from February - then they have an excuse to leave rates until May (by which time the Governor will be reconfirmed?)

Cozworth806

I hope they leave rates as is, although my hunch is of a quarter point cut.