The Iran Impact: Panel and Battery Inverter Prices rising from 5/26 onwards

Screwdriva

Just received confirmation from two of the installers I use. Component prices are rising across brands, which will impact new Solar quotes from May onwards.

As an example, Tesla distribution had 700 PW3s in stock in early April. Last Friday, < 100. Said another way, the UK will likely sell out of Tesla PW3s by month's end. Installations now have a 2+ month wait time, DNO export approvals now take 65+ days.

In some ways, demand is higher than in 2022.

QrizB

In some ways, demand is higher than in 2022.

I'd suggest there's an element of "once bitten, twice shy" here. The energy supply shocks of 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine showed what can result from a relatively small and localised disruption to fossil fuel distribution. Ongoing American shenanigans in and around the Persian Gulf could have larger and longer-lasting impacts.

It also doesn't hurt that we've had four years of generally positive developments for domstic PV - improving SEG tariffs, falling prices, widespread discussions of the benefits, and so on.

Screwdriva

What concerns me is the impact to supply chains 3-6 months down the road. Using the above example, Tesla can only supply so many incremental PW3s over their normal monthly deliveries. What happens when those sell out? A waitlist?

Solar shouldn't be like purchasing a new Rolex, in my humble view.

NedS

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/81969193#Comment_81969193

When I purchased my PW3 just over a year ago, my installers told me they already had a large number (for them) in stock as previously (Ukraine) there had been supply issues, so they made sure they carried significant stock given how many they were installing at the time. So yes, there was a waiting time to fulfil orders.

There could well be supply issues again, plus at some point $100/barrel plus oil prices will feed into inflation for everything, so expect significant price rises to filter through.

I guess the 'smart' people are those rushing to install now. Depending on the scale of the Ofgem price-cap shock in July, there may be a second surge in late summer as the full impacts start to sink in.

born_again

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/81969193#Comment_81969193

Well if only we had production in the UK & did not rely on China for production. Which ships via SofH or the ships has to spend a extra 30 days at sea round the tip of S Africa. Other known as the route of massive costs.

greenbee

It's not just the transportation - component supply is constrained as semi-conductors become constrained (and there are already shortages in the memory supply chain). The whole supply chain is impacted not just by the Iran situation but also by the trade war that is still ongoing between the US and China.

I was planning on adding additional battery capacity at the end of the summer as I'll be using ASHP for heating this winter. I think I might sound out my electrician about sourcing the battery now.

Qyburn

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/81969233#Comment_81969233

Quite happy to have my geography corrected, but doesn't the Suez Canal take you to the Red Sea rather than Persian Gulf?

QrizB

... doesn't the Suez Canal take you to the Red Sea rather than Persian Gulf?

That's my understanding too, otherwise it wouldn't be the Suez Canal it would be the Al Jahra Canal! And considerably longer ...

Possibly getting muddled up with the efforts of Houthis in Yemen to close the Bab el Mandeb?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bab-el-Mandeb

born_again

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/81969620#Comment_81969620

Fair point. I'm wrong. I thought Suez canal started after SofH 🤦‍♀️