Bad time to buy stock?

Hammer56

Uriziel said:

Today I put £50k on "iShare Silver" which was being very volatile. Right after I bought this it went up and I sold it again for £200 return. I am convinced I could have repeated this as it was going up and done frequently.
The risk is low because silver is always going to be going up over time like gold. It's not like a stock that can crash and stay down due to the company going out of business.
There are no fees since the currency was already in GBP.

Can you explain why doing this is bad or too risky?

£50k was a big bet for a small return. If you can guarantee it every time and do it every day, then fine, but you can't be sure, can you. You don't know the silver market any better than professional commodity traders, and the price varies constantly based on intel the big traders get well before it is known by inexperienced retail investors like yourself. You will always be lagging behind the market movements. You are guessing and relying on past performance. People have lost a lot of money that way. If you like a gamble and can take the loss if there is a sharp fall then go for it, but you need to acknowledge you are gambling if you are relying on single commoties or equities rather than tracker funds and ETFs or a very diverse bunch of stocks.

If you think the market is a bit 'peaky' and you want to wait for a drop, that is a judgement call that any of us might make. I feel the same and am not putting new money in right now.  All I would say is whatever you do invest, don't go 'all in' at one moment in time.

chiang_mai

Many if not most retail investors will have been well rewarded this year, the April blip notwithstanding. It is the retail investors that have supported the US bull run and confidence remains high. The Fear and Greed Guage has been pointing towards Fear for many weeks but following the latest Fed rate decison, is now back to Neutral. Part of that fear is inflated values and over concentation in Mag 7 stocks, another part is the fear of missing out, as late commers to the party now show. Less experienced investors can be forgiven for thinking the party might last forever, or at least continue for some time. I don't think that when Warren told people to be greedy when others were being fearful, that he meant fear of missing out! If you strip out the growth in Mag 7 companies, the S&P500 has only increased about 1% in the past 12 months, that doesn't justify to me that small investors like you and I should make large investments today, I think now is the time to play a defensive game and to bide your time.   

Stargunner

chiang_mai said:

Many if not most retail investors will have been well rewarded this year, the April blip notwithstanding. It is the retail investors that have supported the US bull run and confidence remains high. The Fear and Greed Guage has been pointing towards Fear for many weeks but following the latest Fed rate decison, is now back to Neutral. Part of that fear is inflated values and over concentation in Mag 7 stocks, another part is the fear of missing out, as late commers to the party now show. Less experienced investors can be forgiven for thinking the party might last forever, or at least continue for some time. I don't think that when Warren told people to be greedy when others were being fearful, that he meant fear of missing out! If you strip out the growth in Mag 7 companies, the S&P500 has only increased about 1% in the past 12 months, that doesn't justify to me that small investors like you and I should make large investments today, I think now is the time to play a defensive game and to bide your time.   

The S&P500 was around 6000 a year ago. It is now at 6900. That is considerably more than 1%.

Bobziz

Stargunner said:

chiang_mai said:

Many if not most retail investors will have been well rewarded this year, the April blip notwithstanding. It is the retail investors that have supported the US bull run and confidence remains high. The Fear and Greed Guage has been pointing towards Fear for many weeks but following the latest Fed rate decison, is now back to Neutral. Part of that fear is inflated values and over concentation in Mag 7 stocks, another part is the fear of missing out, as late commers to the party now show. Less experienced investors can be forgiven for thinking the party might last forever, or at least continue for some time. I don't think that when Warren told people to be greedy when others were being fearful, that he meant fear of missing out! If you strip out the growth in Mag 7 companies, the S&P500 has only increased about 1% in the past 12 months, that doesn't justify to me that small investors like you and I should make large investments today, I think now is the time to play a defensive game and to bide your time.   

The S&P500 was around 6000 a year ago. It is now at 6900. That is considerably more than 1%.

"If you strip out the growth in Mag 7 companies"

chiang_mai

Stargunner said:

chiang_mai said:

Many if not most retail investors will have been well rewarded this year, the April blip notwithstanding. It is the retail investors that have supported the US bull run and confidence remains high. The Fear and Greed Guage has been pointing towards Fear for many weeks but following the latest Fed rate decison, is now back to Neutral. Part of that fear is inflated values and over concentation in Mag 7 stocks, another part is the fear of missing out, as late commers to the party now show. Less experienced investors can be forgiven for thinking the party might last forever, or at least continue for some time. I don't think that when Warren told people to be greedy when others were being fearful, that he meant fear of missing out! If you strip out the growth in Mag 7 companies, the S&P500 has only increased about 1% in the past 12 months, that doesn't justify to me that small investors like you and I should make large investments today, I think now is the time to play a defensive game and to bide your time.   

The S&P500 was around 6000 a year ago. It is now at 6900. That is considerably more than 1%.

https://global.morningstar.com/en-gb/investments/funds/F00001MV1H/chart

kippo1

Does anyone think when Trump replace the chair of the fed in May and he does Trumps bidding and lower interest rates the stock market will go even higher.

InvesterJones

kippo1 said:

Does anyone think when Trump replace the chair of the fed in May and he does Trumps bidding and lower interest rates the stock market will go even higher.

It might crash and burn horribly without an independent fed.

chiang_mai

kippo1 said:

Does anyone think when Trump replace the chair of the fed in May and he does Trumps bidding and lower interest rates the stock market will go even higher.

It's not as simple as that. The Fed Monetary Committee is comprised of 12 members and each one has a vote. The committee has to be seen to be independent or markets will react poorly. If however the majority does vote for a rate cut, it would be logical for equity markets to increase in value, as long as there is a basis for doing so, independent of rate alone. Unfortunately in this day and age, all the data behind these decisons is made available to the public hence any flawed logic is soon seen and bond markets will react negitively if too many games are played.

Bobziz

The market is currently pricing in that Miran will get his current wish of a 0.5 cut via 2 x 0.25 cuts in 2026. However, he sees the neutral rate at 2.25. The market is certainly not expecting that and I would hope the the bond markets would keep any future stooge Chair in check.

kippo1

InvesterJones said:

kippo1 said:

Does anyone think when Trump replace the chair of the fed in May and he does Trumps bidding and lower interest rates the stock market will go even higher.

It might crash and burn horribly without an independent fed.

i'm hoping it goes in the opposite direction up 20% for the next 18 months then inflation kicks in and its anyones guess what happens after that.