Bad time to buy stock?

Uriziel

Eyeful said:

Uriziel 

1. You really do sound like a newbie. If only making money from the markets was that easy.
 Many newbies before you have looked at the stock market charts & thought the same way as you. 

What you are attempting is called "trying to time the markets".
Its the present day equivalent of the ancient foretelling the future by looking at the entrails of a sheep.
Or looking at the tea leaves in your cup.
Its a mugs game. 

2.  Investing means putting your money at risk, you hope to get more out than you put in.
There is however, no guarantee you will win. You may still loose.

3. Only money you will not touch for say at least 10 years, should be in investments.
The longer you invest the, higher the odds of you winning the game are.
That why it "Time in the market not timing the market"

4. Investing when done correctly is as exciting as watching paint dry.
It should allow you to sleep at night and not worry about your investment.
If it causes either of these your risk level is set too high and needs to be reduced.

5. Remember no one rings a bell at either the top or bottom of a market cycle.
 You only see them for what they are with hindsight.

Today I put £50k on "iShare Silver" which was being very volatile. Right after I bought this it went up and I sold it again for £200 return. I am convinced I could have repeated this as it was going up and done frequently.
The risk is low because silver is always going to be going up over time like gold. It's not like a stock that can crash and stay down due to the company going out of business.
There are no fees since the currency was already in GBP.

Can you explain why doing this is bad or too risky?

InvesterJones

Uriziel said:

The risk is low because silver is always going to be going up over time

What evidence do you have to support that statement?

Uriziel

InvesterJones said:

Uriziel said:

The risk is low because silver is always going to be going up over time

What evidence do you have to support that statement?

I read that people put their money on gold or silver to preserve wealth and the charts also show that they have never really crashed and stayed low. Even if it would dip it would start going back up in the long term.

ColdIron

Try telling that to people who bought at £27 in 2011 and got out at £9 in 2016, 5 years later

They would have had to wait 14 years to recoup that initial investment

Fools rush in etc

InvesterJones

Uriziel said:

InvesterJones said:

Uriziel said:

The risk is low because silver is always going to be going up over time

What evidence do you have to support that statement?

I read that people put their money on gold or silver to preserve wealth and the charts also show that they have never really crashed and stayed low. 

Please can you share an example chart of silver performance that shows that?

I mean, look at the performance from around 2013...

Eyeful

Uriziel said:

Eyeful said:

Uriziel 

1. You really do sound like a newbie. If only making money from the markets was that easy.
 Many newbies before you have looked at the stock market charts & thought the same way as you. 

What you are attempting is called "trying to time the markets".
Its the present day equivalent of the ancient foretelling the future by looking at the entrails of a sheep.
Or looking at the tea leaves in your cup.
Its a mugs game. 

2.  Investing means putting your money at risk, you hope to get more out than you put in.
There is however, no guarantee you will win. You may still loose.

3. Only money you will not touch for say at least 10 years, should be in investments.
The longer you invest the, higher the odds of you winning the game are.
That why it "Time in the market not timing the market"

4. Investing when done correctly is as exciting as watching paint dry.
It should allow you to sleep at night and not worry about your investment.
If it causes either of these your risk level is set too high and needs to be reduced.

5. Remember no one rings a bell at either the top or bottom of a market cycle.
 You only see them for what they are with hindsight.

Today I put £50k on "iShare Silver" which was being very volatile. Right after I bought this it went up and I sold it again for £200 return. I am convinced I could have repeated this as it was going up and done frequently.
The risk is low because silver is always going to be going up over time like gold. It's not like a stock that can crash and stay down due to the company going out of business.
There are no fees since the currency was already in GBP.

Can you explain why doing this is bad or too risky?

1. You again sound like a newbie. Do you really think you have come up with an idea that has not been thought of by others. I have heard it all before. 

2. I do not know what research you did, to draw the conclusions you have come to.
Maybe your research is limited by what is called "recency bias".

4. In my younger days, I also experimented with the charts just for the experience.
Like you I also made profits. However I knew that this was not down to my skill or having spotted something no one  else had. I understood I was just lucky, I stopped while I was ahead.

5. There is a whole industry out there, that make their living by encouraging newbies to believe in the magic of charts and trading shares. 

6.  The risk is that having been lucky to have made a small profit of £200 on your £50k investment you will continue this way or worse if your luck holds out, you will start to think it is down to some skill you have.
Then your luck will run out, as it always does but you will have lost an awful lot of money by that time.
 The odds of winning the game by market timing are against you!   

7. So you think that silver is always going to be going up & not crash. Where ever did you get that idea from!
As you have mentioned silver, I suggest that you look into the
"Hunt Brothers" from Texas (sons of oil tycoon H. L. Hunt) and their silver speculation 
1970's to “Silver Thursday,” March 27, 1980.

eskbanker

Uriziel said:
Today I put £50k on "iShare Silver" which was being very volatile. Right after I bought this it went up and I sold it again for £200 return. I am convinced I could have repeated this as it was going up and done frequently.

The risk is low because silver is always going to be going up over time like gold. It's not like a stock that can crash and stay down due to the company going out of business.

Why are you only comparing speculation on a commodity with buying into an individual company?

There are many other ways to invest, and diversifying with collective investments such as funds is recognised to be a much more reliable method than trying to pick individual winners, but a lot depends on what your objectives and risk tolerance are, as most investors (as opposed to traders) aren't likely to be taking a high-risk punt with £50K....

Bobziz

With the rise in the price of silver today, how come you only made £200 ?

kempiejon

Uriziel said:
Today I put £50k on "iShare Silver" which was being very volatile. Right after I bought this it went up and I sold it again for £200 return. I am convinced I could have repeated this as it was going up and done frequently.

The risk is low because silver is always going to be going up over time like gold. It's not like a stock that can crash and stay down due to the company going out of business.
There are no fees since the currency was already in GBP.

Can you explain why doing this is bad or too risky?

I'd like your premise that those precious metals always go up over time to be the case. I buy gold every couple of months. So why go to the trouble of buying and selling everyday, soaking up your time and there's the risk you buy just before a drop.
Just buy now, let the time pass and watch the value climb.

Cus

On average, I think the analysis has shown that you are more likely to be better off drip feeding than timing the market. Some therefore have managed it. If you believe that detailed analysis and research is the reason these investors have an edge then in reality how likely are you to also have that edge?  If you think you are average, or that it's just luck, then you may as well go with the most likely end outcome.