Equity market crash ?

Albermarle

jimexbox said:

This week will certainly be interesting. US government shutdown, threatened trade war with China. The US economy, the direct opposite of the markets, doing pretty terrible. Does the S&P tank this week? I've got some cash ready to buy when it does.      

Yesterday I was reading about the issues with shadow banking, particularly in the US, and the $10 billion bankruptcy of a major car parts group ( First Brands group) .
It had the smell of the sub prime crisis around it.
If so that could possibly lead to worse effects than a stock market/Big Tech correction.

InvesterJones

SloughSally said:

InvesterJones said:

Anyone wanting to buy soon would of course want a 'sale'. Anyone wanting to sell soon would prefer prices to be higher. For everyone else it kind of doesn't matter.

It does if you have a pension and approaching retirement.

That would probably count as 'wanting to sell soon' so you'd prefer the prices to be higher, though you'd normally factor this in when approaching pension age.

tigerspill

SloughSally said:

InvesterJones said:

Anyone wanting to buy soon would of course want a 'sale'. Anyone wanting to sell soon would prefer prices to be higher. For everyone else it kind of doesn't matter.

It does if you have a pension and approaching retirement.

If that was the case, you would have been preparing for the past few years and have taken into account a potential correction or even crash and taken the appropriate actions.
This might sound a bit harsh, but it is the reality.

Bostonerimus1

Your investing strategy should take account of crashes that will certainly occur. In Drawdown that's why we have the "4% rule" and it's cousins and tools like annuities. 

Confused_Dog

There is a lot of talk in the media this weekend about there there being an AI/Tech bubble and it bursting sooner rather than later.  There are even suggestions it would hit the likes of the construction sector too.  Are all of those data centres that are claimed to be necessary for the AI World really going to be needed?  Are the ones that are built going to be white elephants?  That is bad for those with pensions over a range of assets too;  look at all of the empty shops and offices that a decade ago would have been earning good money for the pension funds and SIPP's.

It does feel we are heading into crash "reality check" territory.  If the crash comes and we have a black Monday or Friday,  the question is going to take for the market to recover?   Will the landing be a soft one like 1990 or 2000 where the recovery only took a few years, or is it going to be like 1929 or 2008 when we were sill feeling the effects 7 years later, and where both events were factors leading into a volatile world situation?

dunstonh

Like we all know equity markets always crash every so often

About 1 in 4 years has a crash and the last one was earlier this year.

Your investing strategy should take account of crashes that will certainly occur. In Drawdown that's why we have the "4% rule" and it's cousins and tools like annuities. 

As this is a UK site, the US 4% SWR won't apply.     UK is closer to 3.5% in your 60s and 3.0% in your 50s.

Linton

Confused_Dog said:

There is a lot of talk in the media this weekend about there there being an AI/Tech bubble and it bursting sooner rather than later.  There are even suggestions it would hit the likes of the construction sector too.  Are all of those data centres that are claimed to be necessary for the AI World really going to be needed?  Are the ones that are built going to be white elephants?  That is bad for those with pensions over a range of assets too;  look at all of the empty shops and offices that a decade ago would have been earning good money for the pension funds and SIPP's.

It does feel we are heading into crash "reality check" territory.  If the crash comes and we have a black Monday or Friday,  the question is going to take for the market to recover?   Will the landing be a soft one like 1990 or 2000 where the recovery only took a few years, or is it going to be like 1929 or 2008 when we were sill feeling the effects 7 years later, and where both events were factors leading into a volatile world situation?

The global markets had barely recovered from the 2000 crash when they were hit again by the 2008 crash and did not regain their start of  2000 levels until about 2011

michael1234

dunstonh said:

Like we all know equity markets always crash every so often

About 1 in 4 years has a crash and the last one was earlier this year.

Your investing strategy should take account of crashes that will certainly occur. In Drawdown that's why we have the "4% rule" and it's cousins and tools like annuities. 

As this is a UK site, the US 4% SWR won't apply.     UK is closer to 3.5% in your 60s and 3.0% in your 50s.

Doesn't that depend on which definition of a crash you are using? No doubt you'll point me to THE definition but regardless, I suspect the OP meant a crash bigger than last April.

Unlike last time when I was unluckly enough to be mid-pension transfer, this time I'm comfortable with any drop at all as will in time regain and I have that time. I do have a larger amount in MMF than I would normally like but that should provide some protection if we see a substantial equity drop.

InvesterJones

michael1234 said:

dunstonh said:

Like we all know equity markets always crash every so often

About 1 in 4 years has a crash and the last one was earlier this year.

Your investing strategy should take account of crashes that will certainly occur. In Drawdown that's why we have the "4% rule" and it's cousins and tools like annuities. 

As this is a UK site, the US 4% SWR won't apply.     UK is closer to 3.5% in your 60s and 3.0% in your 50s.

Doesn't that depend on which definition of a crash you are using? No doubt you'll point me to THE definition but regardless, I suspect the OP meant a crash bigger than last April.

Last April was the biggest two day loss in history by absolute value of US stocks, and worst three days since Black Monday. But yes, it was 'only' a 10% drop in S&P 500 which is what most people consider a 'crash'.

subjecttocontract

World Politics will play a big part in stock market performance and there is a long list of things that could happen. But we aren't allowed to discuss politics on this forum so we'll all have to wait until something happens.