All world, stock market tracker growrh rates

ChequeBookGerry

All,

I'm curious to know what growth rates folks have plugged into their massive pension spreadsheets for general, all world, stock market trackers?  Obviously no-one can predict the future but I have in 4% above inflation.  All of mine are currently flying at the moment so 4% is on the pessimistic side, but interested to see what other people are using.  (You've all got pension spreadsheets like me, haven't you, right?  Right?  Right??  )

El_Torro

I use 2% above inflation. 

Over the last few decades growth has been about 5% above inflation annually on average. So I certainly wouldn't say that 4% above inflation is pessimistic. Remember that even if the 5% above inflation continues this doesn't take into account platform fees or fund fees.

ChequeBookGerry

El_Torro said:

I use 2% above inflation. 

Over the last few decades growth has been about 5% above inflation annually on average. So I certainly wouldn't say that 4% above inflation is pessimistic. Remember that even if the 5% above inflation continues this doesn't take into account platform fees or fund fees.

Thanks.  Struggling with the when to retire question and it certainly makes a difference.  Its a dice throw...

Albermarle

ChequeBookGerry said:

El_Torro said:

I use 2% above inflation. 

Over the last few decades growth has been about 5% above inflation annually on average. So I certainly wouldn't say that 4% above inflation is pessimistic. Remember that even if the 5% above inflation continues this doesn't take into account platform fees or fund fees.

Thanks.  Struggling with the when to retire question and it certainly makes a difference.  Its a dice throw...

The issue is that there have been periods where a big crash has taken many years to recover, so timing is a factor.

QrizB

I've assumed 0 real growth. Yes that's pessimistic, I'm a pessimist

dunstonh

  Obviously no-one can predict the future but I have in 4% above inflation. 

That is optimistic.

 All of mine are currently flying at the moment so 4% is on the pessimistic side, 

No, it's optimistic.  You are probably relying on recency and thinking a boom period is the norm.

You've all got pension spreadsheets like me, haven't you, right? 

No.  

InvesterJones

Since 2000 real returns on global equities have been 3.5%: https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealthmanagement/insights/2025/global-investment-returns-yearbook.html

Longer term (since 1900), even greater (for the US and UK at least, which have data).

But of course, you need patience to get close to the average rate and ride out draw-downs - dotcom bust took 7.5yrs to recover on the US equities side.