Energy Usage

Noodler

I have just got a fresh 12 month tariff with Octopus for just short of £178/month (£2136 pa), up from just over £164/month (1968 pa).  There is just me and my wife in our sixties in a small 3 bedroom bungalow.  Looking at my figures on my account dashboard, in 2024 we used 2250 kWh of electricity and 8100 kWh of gas.  The estimates of consumption for the next 12 months are 3420 kWh of electricity (an increase of 52%) and 14333 kWh of gas (an increase of 77%).  We are living this year very much as last year with no significant changes to our energy consumption.  Can anyone shed any light on what might be going on please?

Peter999_2

I'm afraid they are a bit hopeless with predicting how much energy you use.     How on earth can they say you will use an extra 52% of electric - it's daft.

Personally, I contacted Octopus and got them to move me onto a variable direct debit.   This means that on the 1st of each month I get a bill and on the 14th I pay that exact amount.    I am never in credit or debt and I like it much better this way.

For some reason the option is not available to select on their website or app but you can contact them and get put on it.

Obviously this might not be suitable for you if paying a lower amount in summer and then a higher amount in winter causes you budget problems.   I know a lot of people who find it easier to budget with one set figure all year.

anniecave

I would ignore any dashboard predictions.  They may be trying to be too clever.  Do you have a smart meter? Or do you monitor your readings and send in readings? Are your meter readings consistent on your bills? If meter readings are in order then I would just continue with current direct debit and ignore any predictions (the weather forecast is more likely to be reliable than an energy use forecast...) 

QrizB

Noodler said:

  Can anyone shed any light on what might be going on please?

You've not given enough information for any meaningful comments  to be made.

1. Your monthly DD is not your bill. It's a payment towards on account.

2. Is your account currently in credit or debit, and by how much?

3. What were the actual rates on last year's fix, and what are the rates on this year's?

Reed_Richards

Octopus clearly haven't paid much attention to their dashboard estimates of consumption, and neither should you. They haven't actually increased your Direct Debit by a large percentage, it's up 8.5%.  So if your account already has a large credit balance that's probably too much but if your account is in debit or close-to then Octopus are covering themselves.  

debitcardmayhem

It would help if you tell us what the status of you account in terms of debit or credit, you may have a catch up scenario.
I feel their estimates whilst they try to take into the season 24/25 vs 25/26 predictions for weather of course it’s all very subjective. Some think that AI may be Artificial Inflation.

Devongardener

I ignore the Octopus usage predictions.  They recently wanted to increase my DD by a third even though I had enough credit to cover at least 3 months, so I reduced the DD instead, on the website, easy to do. 

ButterCheese

Can you not just see how you go and adjust the DD accordingly?  We started out at £256/month.  In the summer we use a lot less than that so are now about £660 in credit, but that will get used up over Autumn/Winter when we use more.  If you feel you are building credit which you don't need for the winter then can you not just request that your DD is lowered?

matelodave

It really isn't all that difficult to do your own sums based on your previous annual consumption figure. Multipliy that by the tariff rate and add  the standing charge to get a rough estimate of your annual cost.

Divide that by 12 to get your standing charge and that what YOU tell Octopus what you should pay. Dont let them do the guessing.

Unless you do something really drastic to either increase or decrease your consumption (solar panels, change the heating system, buy an electric car, bit-coin mining etc) then your consumption shouldn't be much different (although a really severe winter might push it up a bit)

I've been logging my consumption over the past 15 years and it averages out at around 7200kwh a year (no gas and we have a heat pump), some years its been a bit more (up to 8500 when it was everso cold)) and others a bit less (as low as 6000 when we went away for a month in the winter) but my estimate of 7200 is close enough for my direct debit to be within +/- £50 over a year (actually last year we used 7149kwh so we over paid by £12.75

FreeBear

matelodave said: Unless you do something really drastic to either increase or decrease your consumption (solar panels, change the heating system, buy an electric car, bit-coin mining etc) then your consumption shouldn't be much different (although a really severe winter might push it up a bit)

For me, electricity has been fairly consistent at around 1700-1800kWh p.a... Gas had been falling from 8000kWh down to 5000kWh (partly due to smart control and extra insulation). Since having a new boiler fitted, gas has been hovering around 3000kWh, but we have had mild winters for the last couple of years. Should we get a repeat of 2018 (the Beast from the East), the gas bill could double.

Octopus did suggest increasing my DD earlier in the year by about 10%. After looking at the credit that had accrued over the last year, I had about a month in hand after the winter period. Opted for a slight reduction, and should the credit turn in to a debt over Christmas, I can either increase the DD or make a one-off payment.

Peter999_2

FreeBear said:

matelodave said: Unless you do something really drastic to either increase or decrease your consumption (solar panels, change the heating system, buy an electric car, bit-coin mining etc) then your consumption shouldn't be much different (although a really severe winter might push it up a bit)

For me, electricity has been fairly consistent at around 1700-1800kWh p.a... Gas had been falling from 8000kWh down to 5000kWh (partly due to smart control and extra insulation). Since having a new boiler fitted, gas has been hovering around 3000kWh, but we have had mild winters for the last couple of years. Should we get a repeat of 2018 (the Beast from the East), the gas bill could double.

Octopus did suggest increasing my DD earlier in the year by about 10%. After looking at the credit that had accrued over the last year, I had about a month in hand after the winter period. Opted for a slight reduction, and should the credit turn in to a debt over Christmas, I can either increase the DD or make a one-off payment.

Wow, you're doing very well there - that's less than 5kWh a day which is amazing.

What about things like washing etc.?    Is your cooking all gas?

I'm using about 7 kWh a day and I thought that was pretty good, haha.