Should I rent my flat out for another year or sell now in a poor market?

RHemmings

ReadySteadyPop said:

RHemmings said:

The ending of the stamp duty holiday has had an effect on the market. But, nobody knows exactly what will happen with the market over the next year. You have to make your decision and take on the risk. 

EAs get paid when houses sell. So, it's in their interest to do whatever will get your flat sold now. Whether that's in your best interest or not. There will be honest EAs who will properly advise you according to your best interest, but not all of them. 

You don't mention a mortgage on the flat. If you did have a mortgage on it, then you would be vulnerable to problems. You have great tenants now, it seems, but what happens if that changes? 

Personally I'm very debt averse. So, when I see you have a flat and a house with a large mortgage and you want to pay down that mortgage and put money into a pension, then that seems ... attractive to me. It would put you in a safer position overall, I think. 

Some interesting stats here.

https://www.standard.co.uk/homesandproperty/property-news/house-sales-plunge-in-april-as-stamp-duty-deadline-ends-buyer-stampede-b1230431.html

It seems rather odd that you quote that article from the Evening Standard, when there are more recent articles from the Evening Standard which give more up to date information. Including this one which I recently posted to a thread that you are involved in. 

https://www.standard.co.uk/homesandproperty/property-news/tom-bill-stamp-duty-tony-hall-financial-conduct-authority-england-b1235206.html

N1_EP said:

Wow - I love this forum it is so helpful to have this range of voices. 

@RHemmings thanks also - it does sound like i am indeed best off dropping the price and persevering. I have £60k mortgage on the flat. 

You mention having a range of voices. Remember that all of us have our biases, and I'm very much biased towards paying down/avoiding debt. £60k isn't a lot - if you had a void with no tenant (or worse, a tenant who stops paying and it takes time to evict them), then would you be OK financially? 

N1_EP

@MeteredOut I did switch agents already after my initial agent had 2 sales fall through.  

Thanks also for the advise re. following the forumites. 

N1_EP

@Hoenir ah! I hadn't clocked that. it does mean them i'm sure people will be very keen to go for just below £500k - oh dear it feels like the situation is geting worse and worse 

ReadySteadyPop

RHemmings said:

ReadySteadyPop said:

RHemmings said:

The ending of the stamp duty holiday has had an effect on the market. But, nobody knows exactly what will happen with the market over the next year. You have to make your decision and take on the risk. 

EAs get paid when houses sell. So, it's in their interest to do whatever will get your flat sold now. Whether that's in your best interest or not. There will be honest EAs who will properly advise you according to your best interest, but not all of them. 

You don't mention a mortgage on the flat. If you did have a mortgage on it, then you would be vulnerable to problems. You have great tenants now, it seems, but what happens if that changes? 

Personally I'm very debt averse. So, when I see you have a flat and a house with a large mortgage and you want to pay down that mortgage and put money into a pension, then that seems ... attractive to me. It would put you in a safer position overall, I think. 

Some interesting stats here.

https://www.standard.co.uk/homesandproperty/property-news/house-sales-plunge-in-april-as-stamp-duty-deadline-ends-buyer-stampede-b1230431.html

It seems rather odd that you quote that article from the Evening Standard, when there are more recent articles from the Evening Standard which give more up to date information. Including this one which I recently posted to a thread that you are involved in. 

https://www.standard.co.uk/homesandproperty/property-news/tom-bill-stamp-duty-tony-hall-financial-conduct-authority-england-b1235206.html

12% down on last year, 20k below the long term monthly average and some good advice thrown in....

 “In the current market, it’s essential for sellers to remember there is always demand for a sensibly-priced property.”

Not sure there is all that much difference in what we posted?

RHemmings

ReadySteadyPop said:

RHemmings said:

ReadySteadyPop said:

RHemmings said:

The ending of the stamp duty holiday has had an effect on the market. But, nobody knows exactly what will happen with the market over the next year. You have to make your decision and take on the risk. 

EAs get paid when houses sell. So, it's in their interest to do whatever will get your flat sold now. Whether that's in your best interest or not. There will be honest EAs who will properly advise you according to your best interest, but not all of them. 

You don't mention a mortgage on the flat. If you did have a mortgage on it, then you would be vulnerable to problems. You have great tenants now, it seems, but what happens if that changes? 

Personally I'm very debt averse. So, when I see you have a flat and a house with a large mortgage and you want to pay down that mortgage and put money into a pension, then that seems ... attractive to me. It would put you in a safer position overall, I think. 

Some interesting stats here.

https://www.standard.co.uk/homesandproperty/property-news/house-sales-plunge-in-april-as-stamp-duty-deadline-ends-buyer-stampede-b1230431.html

It seems rather odd that you quote that article from the Evening Standard, when there are more recent articles from the Evening Standard which give more up to date information. Including this one which I recently posted to a thread that you are involved in. 

https://www.standard.co.uk/homesandproperty/property-news/tom-bill-stamp-duty-tony-hall-financial-conduct-authority-england-b1235206.html

12% down on last year, 20k below the long term monthly average and some good advice thrown in....

 “In the current market, it’s essential for sellers to remember there is always demand for a sensibly-priced property.”

Not sure there is all that much difference in what we posted?

The statistics you didn't cherry pick is that sales were up 25% MoM in May compared to April, and that it's predicted that the number of transactions is expected to be 5% up in 2025 compared to 2024. 

ReadySteadyPop

RHemmings said:

ReadySteadyPop said:

RHemmings said:

ReadySteadyPop said:

RHemmings said:

The ending of the stamp duty holiday has had an effect on the market. But, nobody knows exactly what will happen with the market over the next year. You have to make your decision and take on the risk. 

EAs get paid when houses sell. So, it's in their interest to do whatever will get your flat sold now. Whether that's in your best interest or not. There will be honest EAs who will properly advise you according to your best interest, but not all of them. 

You don't mention a mortgage on the flat. If you did have a mortgage on it, then you would be vulnerable to problems. You have great tenants now, it seems, but what happens if that changes? 

Personally I'm very debt averse. So, when I see you have a flat and a house with a large mortgage and you want to pay down that mortgage and put money into a pension, then that seems ... attractive to me. It would put you in a safer position overall, I think. 

Some interesting stats here.

https://www.standard.co.uk/homesandproperty/property-news/house-sales-plunge-in-april-as-stamp-duty-deadline-ends-buyer-stampede-b1230431.html

It seems rather odd that you quote that article from the Evening Standard, when there are more recent articles from the Evening Standard which give more up to date information. Including this one which I recently posted to a thread that you are involved in. 

https://www.standard.co.uk/homesandproperty/property-news/tom-bill-stamp-duty-tony-hall-financial-conduct-authority-england-b1235206.html

12% down on last year, 20k below the long term monthly average and some good advice thrown in....

 “In the current market, it’s essential for sellers to remember there is always demand for a sensibly-priced property.”

Not sure there is all that much difference in what we posted?

The statistics you didn't cherry pick is that sales were up 25% MoM in May compared to April, and that it's predicted that the number of transactions is expected to be 5% up in 2025 compared to 2024. 

People who rely on mortgage lending or house sales for their business will jump on and cherry pick any perceived rises as a "positive", to get a sensible picture you have to look at the longer term view

https://www.statista.com/statistics/290623/uk-housing-market-monthly-sales-volumes/

It seems that in January this year sales were at under half the historical average, the OP has acknowledged that it is a difficult market for sellers, are you advising them to wait because in your view the market will get better for sellers?

Emmia

N1_EP said:

Wow - I love this forum it is so helpful to have this range of voices. 

@poseidon1 you're absolutely right I am a londoner and yes I posted back in November when I wasn't sure if I should sell. A resounding yes from the forum helped me make this decision and feel it was the right one. You're right I did originally think i'd be getting £480k before estate agents came and valued it. they all pitched a lot higher so I ran all my figures from that. 
It's helpful to be reminded that selling asap is a good idea.

@RHemmings thanks also - it does sound like i am indeed best off dropping the price and persevering. I have £60k mortgage on the flat. 

@ReadySteadyPop - interesting you think 10% isn't really that much. I'm struggling with it as literally every penny counts. I have no pension so the flat sale is meant to kick start that. I planned to put £150k into a pension the rest against the house but now it will be more like £100k in the pension. i'm 46 so very late sorting this out and worried about it. I always planned that the flat would be my pension either by income or selling at the point of retirement but it seems that was no longer a good plan hence the sale. 

thanks for that stats link i'll check it out. 

thank you so much all - so helpful!

If you have no pension whatsoever I'd really start putting some money away into that as soon as possible rather than waiting for the big £150k dollop of cash that you "see" as a result of the EA valuations of the flat. 

Are you on track for your State Pension in terms of your contributions? Are you employed with access to a workplace scheme?

RHemmings

ReadySteadyPop said:

RHemmings said:

ReadySteadyPop said:

RHemmings said:

ReadySteadyPop said:

RHemmings said:

The ending of the stamp duty holiday has had an effect on the market. But, nobody knows exactly what will happen with the market over the next year. You have to make your decision and take on the risk. 

EAs get paid when houses sell. So, it's in their interest to do whatever will get your flat sold now. Whether that's in your best interest or not. There will be honest EAs who will properly advise you according to your best interest, but not all of them. 

You don't mention a mortgage on the flat. If you did have a mortgage on it, then you would be vulnerable to problems. You have great tenants now, it seems, but what happens if that changes? 

Personally I'm very debt averse. So, when I see you have a flat and a house with a large mortgage and you want to pay down that mortgage and put money into a pension, then that seems ... attractive to me. It would put you in a safer position overall, I think. 

Some interesting stats here.

https://www.standard.co.uk/homesandproperty/property-news/house-sales-plunge-in-april-as-stamp-duty-deadline-ends-buyer-stampede-b1230431.html

It seems rather odd that you quote that article from the Evening Standard, when there are more recent articles from the Evening Standard which give more up to date information. Including this one which I recently posted to a thread that you are involved in. 

https://www.standard.co.uk/homesandproperty/property-news/tom-bill-stamp-duty-tony-hall-financial-conduct-authority-england-b1235206.html

12% down on last year, 20k below the long term monthly average and some good advice thrown in....

 “In the current market, it’s essential for sellers to remember there is always demand for a sensibly-priced property.”

Not sure there is all that much difference in what we posted?

The statistics you didn't cherry pick is that sales were up 25% MoM in May compared to April, and that it's predicted that the number of transactions is expected to be 5% up in 2025 compared to 2024. 

People who rely on mortgage lending or house sales for their business will jump on and cherry pick any perceived rises as a "positive", to get a sensible picture you have to look at the longer term view

https://www.statista.com/statistics/290623/uk-housing-market-monthly-sales-volumes/

It seems that in January this year sales were at under half the historical average, the OP has acknowledged that it is a difficult market for sellers, are you advising them to wait because in your view the market will get better for sellers?

I responded to your particular post where you tried to pretend that the out-of-date reference you posted was similar to the more up-to-date reference I posted (from the same source). 

When I look up the statistics for January 2025, sales were up 17-20% YoY depending on where you look.  Warning: the statistics presented for the number of sales are often seasonally adjusted. That is important to note when comparing sales figures. I looked through the Januaries in the graph you presented, and I don't see data suggesting that the figure is half any long-term average. Are you comparing non-seasonally adjusted January sales against the long-term average for all months? 

I don't think there is anyone on this forum who is more biased and more prone to cherry picking than you. I see lots of people trying to list all the pros and cons of anything. You only ever argue one side. And, you have been consistently negative about the property market, even when it has later proved to be in a boom. E.g. prices increased about 4-5% (depending on source) YoY from Jan 2024 to Jan 2025. That is not a housing market in the doldrums. 

I said specifically that no-one can predict the housing market. See, for example, how continually incorrect you have been. So, I don't know why are you asking me if I am advising them to wait because the market will get better for sellers. It seems to me that you have a warped view where there are only property 'bulls' and 'bears'. That is not the case in reality. 

People who are new here need to know this about you. What your biases are. Because you are more biased and prone to cherry picking than anybody else here. 

Shadyocuk

Whilst ReadySteadyPop might have been historically biased, the property market in England in general is not looking in great shape.

Generally speaking prices are down and falling , both London area and flats being particularly hit due to ever increasing service charges. All the usual (biased) price valuation metrics are showing a fall.

small scale BTL landlords are trying to exit the market , the renters reform bill will only make this worse and given the state of the countrys finances you would not wont to rule out futher increases in capital gains tax rates.

I don't see anything happening between now and September that will improve the market , and by then the next budget is just round the corner. Even if the BOE cuts interest rates, Gilts and Swap rates are more likely to go up than down (Trump's new bill and our lack of a credible chancelor mean both the UK and the USA have to sell lots of new Gilts).

Most estate agents initally over value by at least 10% , if a buyer needs a mortgage its the banks valuation that will matter not the estate agents marketing price.

For every new buyer entering the market there is 3+ new sellers at a time when the stock of properties for sale is allready higher than any recent year (most just sitting there as they are overpriced) and yes despite growth in both population and housing stock the number of sales are about 50% below historical averages.

If I owned a BTL flat in London , I would want to get shot of it ASAP.

RHemmings

Shadyocuk said:

Whilst ReadySteadyPop might have been historically biased, the property market in England in general is not looking in great shape.

Generally speaking prices are down and falling , both London area and flats being particularly hit due to ever increasing service charges. All the usual (biased) price valuation metrics are showing a fall.

small scale BTL landlords are trying to exit the market , the renters reform bill will only make this worse and given the state of the countrys finances you would not wont to rule out futher increases in capital gains tax rates.

I don't see anything happening between now and September that will improve the market , and by then the next budget is just round the corner. Even if the BOE cuts interest rates, Gilts and Swap rates are more likely to go up than down (Trump's new bill and our lack of a credible chancelor mean both the UK and the USA have to sell lots of new Gilts).

Most estate agents initally over value by at least 10% , if a buyer needs a mortgage its the banks valuation that will matter not the estate agents marketing price.

For every new buyer entering the market there is 3+ new sellers at a time when the stock of properties for sale is allready higher than any recent year (most just sitting there as they are overpriced) and yes despite growth in both population and housing stock the number of sales are about 50% below historical averages.

If I owned a BTL flat in London , I would want to get shot of it ASAP.

The issue with the 'crash merchants' is that they assume certainty of doom and portray that as a certainty.

Nobody is saying that the market is in good shape right now. After a boom earlier in the year (which RSP appears to have vaguely denied but has not yet provided a source for their statistics concerning January sales), there is now a lull. But, this is equally explained by the end of the stamp duty holiday. For example, this graph showing the huge jump in March, the huge drop in April, and a small recovery in May. 



(Graph from: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/monthly-property-transactions-completed-in-the-uk-with-value-40000-or-above/uk-monthly-property-transactions-commentary--2) 

Clearly this is not a normal situation, and transactions and price data from around the end of the stamp duty holiday are unlikely to indicate a long-term trend. 

It has been mentioned before that RSP is a 'stopped clock', and of course house prices do go down as well as up. This has been mentioend. But, the sizeable crash that RSP predicts and has been predicting since 2007 (for those who know where to look) hasn't happened. Because it's more sizeable than will ever happen.

It's me that has posted plots from Plumplot, which I often do when estimating what a property might be worth given previous sales prices and the time since a property last sold. Looking at these, there has already been a real-terms price crash, in places like London especially. As is normal, in nominal terms the price change is typically less, though still notable in London. We don't know if that has deflated the market to a point where it will start rising again, or not. Nobody knows that. Then people risk missing a good opportunity (as RSP missed the post-2008 reduction in prices) because of bad advice. We don't know whether currently reduced prices (very significantly in London) are a good opportunity or not. But, they could be. 

What we don't know is what is going to happen in the future. And, the history of housing is of people making predictions that are proven wrong. Advising people whether or not they should buy/sell/whatever based on claimed certainty as to what the market will do in the future is not a good thing to do. People need to understand that the property market can't be predicted, and consider that uncertainty when deciding what to do. 

What happens in this forum is that RSP will make unsubstantiated claims based on 'the current market' which, no matter what the market is currently doing, are always to reduce price drastically 'still £100,000 overpriced', make ridiculous offers that won't be accepted, or to not buy and wait because in the near future houses will be much cheaper. These, e.g. the claim that sales in January this year were half the long-term average (which they weren't) then get rebutted with facts and figures, which then becomes 'debating house prices and the economy'. Which is banned in this forum. But, if you see someone in the forum misleading new posters who might assume that RSP knows what they are talking about, do we just let it be? It's not difficult to find RSP elsewhere on the internet and find the boasts as to what they are doing on here (MSE). As well as their long-term history and the consistency of their negative view, whether the market is booming or contracting.