Average house asking price vs average/typical house price

grumpy_codger

14 April 2025 https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-14604805/Record-house-asking-prices-despite-stamp-duty-blow.html

The average [asking] price tag climbed 1.4 per cent, or £5,312, this month to £377,182

8 May 2025 https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-14690613/House-prices-rise-April-agents-think-heading-here.html

The typical* property, according to Halifax's mortgage data, is now valued at £297,781 - a rise from £296,899 in March.

* on the graph it says 'average'

Is the average difference between asking prices and final prices really that big (£79K, about 21% reduction from the asking price)? Am I missing something?

Grumpy_chap

grumpy_codger said:

14 April 2025 https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-14604805/Record-house-asking-prices-despite-stamp-duty-blow.html

The average [asking] price tag climbed 1.4 per cent, or £5,312, this month to £377,182

8 May 2025 https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-14690613/House-prices-rise-April-agents-think-heading-here.html

The typical* property, according to Halifax's mortgage data, is now valued at £297,781 - a rise from £296,899 in March.

* on the graph it says 'average'

Is the average difference between asking prices and final prices really that big (£79K, about 21% reduction from the asking price)? Am I missing something?

Well, I suspect the real difference here is different mathematical averages being used in each case.

The average asking price probably takes the mean average, so add up the value of all asking prices and divide by the number of houses being advertised for sale.  This outcome will be skewed by the small number of mansions and country estates.

The typical property according to Halifax mortgage data is possibly using median, so the middle value when all the houses in the data set are listed in order.


I suspect, also, there is a variance in the data sets being used. 

The average asking price can look at all properties regardless of value, so will include the very top end properties in the data set.

Halifax mortgage data, by definition, only includes sales where a mortgage is required to purchase.  The very top-end house sales will be cash purchases made by investment bankers, footballers, pop-stars and the like.  I very much doubt that Taylor Swift or David Beckham have a mortgage and, if they do, it won't be from a High Street retail business such as the Halifax.  In fact, I suspect that Halifax have a maximum mortgage / property value they will advance, though I cannot find reference through a quick search on their website (I only found reference to a minimum £40k).  If there is a maximum mortgage / property value at Halifax, this will skew the Halifax data set to a lower overall value by restricting the data set.

Albermarle

The main difference is that the asking price data is based on Right Move data, and the Halifax data is based on homes they have offered a mortgage on.
So as said above very high end properties will feature in Right Move data, but not so much on the Halifax data.

However just to confuse matters, The Land Registry Property index , which is supposed to cover all properties says the average price in Feb 2025 was £268K, so less than the Halifax figure. I think this index lags a bit , but not that much.

user1977

Also the completed prices are of sales agreed in principle possibly a year ago, whereas the asking prices are of properties which might not even be under offer for some months to come (and may be lowered before then anyway, or simply taken off the market).

Altior

Rightmove is in a unique position to identify any immediate changes in the market. Rightmove’s House Price Index is compiled from the asking prices of properties coming onto the market via over 16,000 estate agency branches listing on Rightmove.co.uk. Rather than being a survey of opinions as with some other indices, it is produced from factual data of actual asking prices of properties currently on the market. The sample includes up to 200,000 homes each month, making it the largest and most up-to-date monthly sample of any house price indicator in the UK. The Index differs from other house price indicators in that it reflects asking prices when properties first come onto the market, rather than those recorded by lenders during the mortgage application process or final sales prices reported to the Land Registry. In essence, Rightmove’s Index measures prices at the very beginning of the home buying and selling process while other indices measure prices at points later in the process. Having a large sample size and providing real-time data, the Rightmove Index has established itself as a reliable indicator of current and future trends in the housing market.

It's an 'asking price' index, effectively.

We’ve seen our first price record in nearly a year, despite the number of homes for sale being at a decade-high.

As a stats man, this is quite a curious juxtaposition. Record 'average' asking prices, but seemingly an abundance of supply. 

RM's data shows that the average asking price has been broadly static over the last three years, I suppose it's good for publicity to be claiming a 'record'. Technically it is, but not when inflation is considered. 

RHemmings

If you look up Zoopla sold house prices for your area, then you can sometimes see both the price the house was listed for, and how much it actually sold for. This will give you a very crude idea of the difference. I don't know how Zoopla handles price reductions. I.e. is the listed price the original listed price, or the last listed price before sale. Or? 

When I've done this in my local area only, it's possible to see things such as 'offers above' prices being higher than the actual sale price etc. While I haven't done a numerical analysis, my unreliable memory suggests that 20% would be a notably big reduction. 

It will be more useful working this out for your target area than any statistics calculated across the whole country. Particularly if it might be that the average is calculated differently. 

jimbog

To me, the articles are describing two different things. 

The average property price would be the average value of all the homes in the UK whether for sale or not (there is no mention of ‘final’ price in the article)

The average asking price is only for those currently on the market. If one month more expensive homes were listed that figure would rise or would fall if more cheaper properties were listed