Will recent "events" cause a rethink of DC pensions?

MetaPhysical

Cobbler_tone said:

The latest uncertainty around the US trade block. Difficult to do business if you don't know whether the tariffs are going to exist or not.

Anyway, I assume people are generally feeling a bit more optimistic than a few weeks back?

I wasn't pessimistic anyway.  Ups and downs are part of the investment cycle that is intrinsic to DC pensions and this has to be accepted.  I agree with you that it's difficult to plan around what the "Orange Gentleman" might do next.   So all we can do is keep calm and carry on and stick to the plan.

DT2001

MetaPhysical said:

Cobbler_tone said:

The latest uncertainty around the US trade block. Difficult to do business if you don't know whether the tariffs are going to exist or not.

Anyway, I assume people are generally feeling a bit more optimistic than a few weeks back?

I wasn't pessimistic anyway.  Ups and downs are part of the investment cycle that is intrinsic to DC pensions and this has to be accepted.  I agree with you that it's difficult to plan around what the "Orange Gentleman" might do next.   So all we can do is keep calm and carry on and stick to the plan.

Having recently come back to DIYing my investments your last sentence is most pertinent. I have written down our plan (as someone suggested) and whilst I hope for modest growth over the next decade I have looked at serious downturn (50% drop) and know my plan works. As part of our changes I have switched platforms and so the base point has been reset. The psychology of seeing a ‘loss’ figure versus a smaller profit is interesting. I probably need to create a worksheet with original values etc etc which will help when the inevitable corrections occur.

Recent events have made me consider tweaking the timing of withdrawals calculation. Instead of an annual sale of equities to fund withdrawals I was considering a quarterly calculation. We are used to varying income so are happy to go with the flow.

MetaPhysical

DT2001 said:

MetaPhysical said:

Cobbler_tone said:

The latest uncertainty around the US trade block. Difficult to do business if you don't know whether the tariffs are going to exist or not.

Anyway, I assume people are generally feeling a bit more optimistic than a few weeks back?

I wasn't pessimistic anyway.  Ups and downs are part of the investment cycle that is intrinsic to DC pensions and this has to be accepted.  I agree with you that it's difficult to plan around what the "Orange Gentleman" might do next.   So all we can do is keep calm and carry on and stick to the plan.

Having recently come back to DIYing my investments your last sentence is most pertinent. I have written down our plan (as someone suggested) and whilst I hope for modest growth over the next decade I have looked at serious downturn (50% drop) and know my plan works. As part of our changes I have switched platforms and so the base point has been reset. The psychology of seeing a ‘loss’ figure versus a smaller profit is interesting. I probably need to create a worksheet with original values etc etc which will help when the inevitable corrections occur.

Recent events have made me consider tweaking the timing of withdrawals calculation. Instead of an annual sale of equities to fund withdrawals I was considering a quarterly calculation. We are used to varying income so are happy to go with the flow.

Absolutely 100%.  Write down your plan and you rationale.  Any time you feel scared and think of selling out, reread your plan before you do anything.

Remember this.  Ramin mentioned this on Pensioncraft and it's a statistic I have seen elsewhere as well; in the past 25 years, there are TEN (yes, just ten) trading days where stocks rallied so much that had you sold out and been out of the market and missed them you'd have only 50% of the portfolio you'd otherwise have had.  Had you missed the best 20 days you'd only have 10% of what you would otherwise have.  Be very careful trying to time the market.  If Warren Buffett cannot do it then us mere mortals haver precisely zero chance.

Cobbler_tone

If anyone has been short selling Tesla shares can they lend me a fiver?

kempiejon

Cobbler_tone said:

If anyone has been short selling Tesla shares can they lend me a fiver?

I assumed Trump, Musk and the team were all doing that, or at least waiting for a new low entry point.

MeteredOut

Cobbler_tone said:

If anyone has been short selling Tesla shares can they lend me a fiver?

It's still up 60% over the last 12 months.

Cobbler_tone

MeteredOut said:

Cobbler_tone said:

If anyone has been short selling Tesla shares can they lend me a fiver?

It's still up 60% over the last 12 months.

Maybe but $150b has to sting in any context. Not the most stable of investments.

MetaPhysical

Someone like Elon Musk doesn't do it solely for money.  He has a calling to shake things up and challenge the status quo.