Will recent "events" cause a rethink of DC pensions?

kinger101

Hoenir said:

kinger101 said:

Storcko14 said:

kinger101 said:

As annoying as it is to see a five figure sum wiped off my DC fund, I don't see anything has fundamentally changed that what cause me to alter strategy.

It's not even a crash.  Yet.  But if I had to alter my plan in response, than my original plan would have been wrong.  Which it may have been, but finding a better direction is difficult in a fog.

I think this is why an understanding of macro economics and geopolitics (and allowing discussion of on fora such as this) is essential if you're investing in a globally inter-connected market.

The fact that actively managed funds on average underperform global trackers tells me that most people how proclaim to be good at that stuff aren't.  

Global trackers haven't outperpeformed per se.  A handfull of shares have. Being underweight in these shares can only result in one thing. No one mentions the Nikkei crash either. Japan was a 40% index weighting back.  The US just 30%.  Investing with hindsight is easy. 

I never claimed they did.  The fact that I was using a global index tracker as a benchmark for active investing by definition means technically, they shouldn't.  If they did, it would be due to tracking error.

I'm at a complete loss on the investing with hindsight comment. 

My point was that if people paid professionally to factor in a, b, c with x, y and z are bad at it, my amateurish attempts wouldn't likely do any better either.

I'll stick with passive because it's cheap, simple, and I've not been presented with an alternative that stands up to scrutiny.  Sure, some people do better, but that would be expected by chance.

Cobbler_tone

With the pretty much total u-turn complete, it’ll be back to ‘as you were’ before you know it. A bit of a farce really. The Chinese were never going to back down.

kinger101

Cobbler_tone said:

With the pretty much total u-turn complete, it’ll be back to ‘as you were’ before you know it. A bit of a farce really. The Chinese were never going to back down.

I'm not banking on a recovery any time soon....

barnstar2077

Cobbler_tone said:

With the pretty much total u-turn complete, it’ll be back to ‘as you were’ before you know it. A bit of a farce really. The Chinese were never going to back down.

With the tariffs on hold, and news now that they don't even apply to phones and tablets either, things are certainly looking up.  I can see things calming down now, but I'm not predicting the usual rapid gains, as I think Trump has people wondering what else he is going to do.  I will keep buying US for now and see what happens.  Interesting times indeed.

Storcko14

kinger101 said:

Cobbler_tone said:

With the pretty much total u-turn complete, it’ll be back to ‘as you were’ before you know it. A bit of a farce really. The Chinese were never going to back down.

I'm not banking on a recovery any time soon....

Yep - now it's completely clear that the KOTUS and his cabinet of sycophantic courtiers can't be trusted so corporate investments will be canned or put on hold.  Plus there's now an effective trade embargo between the world's two largest economies - might not be immediate pain from that but likely once inventories run down.  I'll be keeping powder dry and a close eye on the bond and currency markets for the meantime.

Time4T_Accounts

Oh dear, I should have paid more attention at school … KOTUS … I thought that word began with a “C”, him with his Kourtiers … 

poseidon1

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c20xn626y81o.amp

Hot news over the weekend re backdated exemptions for phones, computers and ancillary components, could mean a bit of a surge on the Nasdaq  and S &P 500 on Monday.

Be interesting to see if the wider world indices  also react positively to the possibility of a little bit of sanity begining to emerge on the whole contrived  tariff fiasco.

PropertyGuru_Wannabe

We are no where near normality.  The two largest economic countries strangling each other, 25% taxes still on Mexico and Canada, 10% taxes no the whole world, and in less than 90 days time it will be back to the crash again.  Trust has been severely impacted and some countries will pivot to China.  We are already hearing people boycotting US products.  Where is the normality?  

Still, this changes nothing in my investment plan.  I'm not giving up on the global economy and I have been buying during this downturn, and will continue doing so if markets continue to fall.

QrizB

PropertyGuru_Wannabe said:

We are no where near normality.  

...

 I have been buying during this downturn, and will continue doing so if markets continue to fall.

If we can have a bit of a dip in the markets again at the end of the month, just before my employer pension contributions are made, that would be nice.

Cobbler_tone

poseidon1 said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c20xn626y81o.amp

Hot news over the weekend re backdated exemptions for phones, computers and ancillary components, could mean a bit of a surge on the Nasdaq  and S &P 500 on Monday.

Be interesting to see if the wider world indices  also react positively to the possibility of a little bit of sanity begining to emerge on the whole contrived  tariff fiasco.

That is what I was alluding to yesterday afternoon. My prediction is that we will see gains next week and we will back to where we were before the tariff announcement. I don’t think he likes the look of falling markets, backed up by his very quick u-turns and 90 day stalling. He knows China isn’t going to capitulate, it’s not what they do. After that there will be something else. No doubt it will still be a rollercoaster for a while.
As I approach my last couple of years I’m staying firmly in my cash portfolio, with 50% of future contributions in the target date plan, which isn’t going to make a huge difference either way and keeping me very much in ‘low risk’ territory.
One things for sure, it is hugely unsettling that one persons off the cuff flip flopping can drive the worldwide market to such an extent.