Market Carnage - strategy (buy/sell?)

BarleyGB

25% of my retirement plan is in a DC pension and S&S ISA (ive other in a DB pension and property), plus an emergency fund. 

Looking at the carnage im beginning to wonder how long it could last, how deep the sell-off may go (my equitties could we be looking at a 25-50% decline over the next 1, 3, 6 months)?

A.  Anyone in a similar boat thinking of what strategy to adopt, e.g. is it worth cashing in 25% / 50% of portfolio to protect from further losses or could that just be crystallising a loss should the market start recovering in a few days?

B. Contrary to the last sentence im almost wishing I had a pot of cash to invest now, the other half of me thinks the market is in panic mode and this can often be the best time to buy

Clearly A & B are conflicting views, based on this im likely going to sit tight and rely on some £/cost averaging evening things out.

francoghezzi

Never invested in S&S, all I have got is in regular and fixed interested savings, my work pension is totally 'cash': life is too precious and short to spend my nights checking on mr Trump and others fools' acts. Yes I missed the bull market, yes am happy there is sunshine out and am heading for a walk. Self inflicted lunacies are not for me. Having said that I wouldn't be tempted to put money in the market just now. As they say: "do not grab a falling knife"

jimexbox

We've been here before. I'm not even going to look at my pension, I know it's dropped massively. Personally I'm buying as I'm playing the long game, 10 years plus.

Sg28

BarleyGB said:

25% of my retirement plan is in a DC pension and S&S ISA (ive other in a DB pension and property), plus an emergency fund. 

Looking at the carnage im beginning to wonder how long it could last, how deep the sell-off may go (my equitties could we be looking at a 25-50% decline over the next 1, 3, 6 months)?

A.  Anyone in a similar boat thinking of what strategy to adopt, e.g. is it worth cashing in 25% / 50% of portfolio to protect from further losses or could that just be crystallising a loss should the market start recovering in a few days?

B. Contrary to the last sentence im almost wishing I had a pot of cash to invest now, the other half of me thinks the market is in panic mode and this can often be the best time to buy

Clearly A & B are conflicting views, based on this im likely going to sit tight and rely on some £/cost averaging evening things out.

I suppose it would depend on your timescale. 

For me its holding/buying time. Ive got 20 years to ride it out. 

If I were planning on retirement next year, I might be thinking different.

lisyloo

I’m buying.
if you can’t hold through market drops you shouldn’t be invested.

of you’re coming up to retirement consider moving part into safer assets (when the market is good)
I moved some of mine from higher risk to medium risk so I have a pot to drawdown from in the early years if there’s a market crash in the early years of my retirement.
i’m not suggesting doing that right now, but as a strategy and make the move when in a better place.
i moved a good few years worth and it’s still invested just lower risk that the rest of my pot which is long term.

i discussion this will my financial advisor. I only have 2 portfolios within my SIPP but you could have more if you wanted to go say short, medium, long or whatever suits you.

kempiejon

Well I suppose the balance in my portfolio has swung towards a higher percentage in bonds/fixed interest. I will be buying throughout the new tax year adding to SIPP and ISA. To rebalance to my prefered weighting I'll focus on equities but that's not a change. I have been adding a small amount of gold most months since Covid, I'll keep that in place. I added extra USA in the Autumn but missed the boat on banking that 10% rally after Christmas.

Keep_pedalling

Panic selling now will just lock in your losses. When this clown was elected I had trouble understanding why stocks went up when all he promised was chaos and converted enough to cash to see us through the next few years. 

dunstonh

Keep_pedalling said:

Panic selling now will just lock in your losses. When this clown was elected I had trouble understanding why stocks went up when all he promised was chaos and converted enough to cash to see us through the next few years. 

So, far, half the losses have been half the gains (ballpark) since he was in power.  So, in reality, most people are still up over 12 months.  Its that which makes me think it is going to get worse before it gets better.

OldScientist

If you follow strategy A, the next question is then "when do you put the cash back into the market?" This might be easy enough to answer if there is another 20% drop (although timing is always going to be tricky), but less so if there is a bit of a recovery.

Since you don't have a pot of cash, then you cannot follow strategy B except to continue to make your regular monthly(?) contributions.

The maxim, "Don't just do something -- stand there!" was made for passive investors.

Albermarle

BarleyGB said:

25% of my retirement plan is in a DC pension and S&S ISA (ive other in a DB pension and property), plus an emergency fund. 

Looking at the carnage im beginning to wonder how long it could last, how deep the sell-off may go (my equitties could we be looking at a 25-50% decline over the next 1, 3, 6 months)?

A.  Anyone in a similar boat thinking of what strategy to adopt, e.g. is it worth cashing in 25% / 50% of portfolio to protect from further losses or could that just be crystallising a loss should the market start recovering in a few days?

B. Contrary to the last sentence im almost wishing I had a pot of cash to invest now, the other half of me thinks the market is in panic mode and this can often be the best time to buy

Clearly A & B are conflicting views, based on this im likely going to sit tight and rely on some £/cost averaging evening things out.

As you have only 25 % in a DC pension /S&S ISA, and probably not all that is in equities, the effects of stock market declines is pretty diluted for you.

 could we be looking at a 25-50% decline over the next 1, 3, 6 months)?

As nobody can see into the future, then no one can answer that question.
Tomorrow, Trump might start backing off about the tariffs, or he may get more aggressive, who knows?

 

tigerspill

Each FY, I sell some non tax efficient investments and then re-buy within my ISA as soon as I have the cash.  This works better in a falling market so I am now wondering if today is the time to do the sell part.