What's the current "yearly minimum" people have been buying kerosene at?

quartzz

[17/03/25 -- plz see post 8]

My first and only delivery so far was 63p/L - is this likely to come down over the next 12 months? what would we be talking.....55p/L or something? 500L of 55p/L would over 12 months be £40 cheaper than I bought. so putting an oil drum in the garage at about £15 would probably be worth it at that price

There is this - no idea how reliable or representative of actual "buying" prices it is. https://www.boilerjuice.com/heating-oil-prices/    "market trends" make it go down, but for some reason, 24 hours ago the price spiked, so prices had to increase today

QrizB

Boilerjuice do a reasonable job of tracking prices. There's a thread somewhere where folk to compare what they're paying. Back during lockdown it got as low as 30p/litre, if I recall correctly (although I might be thinking of LPG!)

lohr500

It can be a volatile (no pun intended) market and prices do spike when significant world events occur and also as/when Opec decide to ramp up or cut back on production.

As an example, if you look at the Boilerjuice graph over 4 years, there is a massive spike in March 2022 which aligns with the invasion of Ukraine.

Some say there used to be a pattern where UK prices were cheaper in Summer when global oil stocks were high, before the USA started stocking up for their winter. But I'm not so sure that is still the case. Oct/Nov prices last year were at their lowest point for the whole of 2024.

Prices do seem to be very regional as well, so the Boilerjuice England graph may not reflect the local price in your area But it does show the general trend.

The overall trend over the past three years or so has been downward and I have given up trying to second guess the market. I am fortunate to have a 2500 lite tank, so I could spot buy in volume if I wanted to.

I usually wait now until I need +/- 1500 litres, then shop around for the best price. If it is on a real spike though, then I tend to wait for a week or so to see if it drops slightly.

Even at 65p a litre, it is probably still comparable or slightly cheaper than mains gas costs allowing for differences in boiler efficiency and the fact that most oil boilers, unlike gas, are not capable of modulating their output.

Rodders53

I use https://homefuelsdirect.co.uk/home/heating-oil-prices/ and The heating oil club — Get a quote to estimate what Kerosene prices are likely to be...

Neither require e-mail address to give figures.

Based on that I'll call / ask for quotes from my local suppliers to get the best value when my 1225 litre tank can accommodate enough fuel.

QrizB said:

 Back during lockdown it got as low as 30p/litre, if I recall correctly (although I might be thinking of LPG!)

It may have been even lower in mid Summer 2020.  I paid 33.33 p in March 2020 and then 31.30 in November, missing the absolute low (no room to meet min 500 litre order).  It was 55.26 p last Order in August 24.  Still 30% in the tank and may be a similar price here at the moment.

HillStreetBlues

Rodders53 said:

I use https://homefuelsdirect.co.uk/home/heating-oil-prices/ and The heating oil club — Get a quote to estimate what Kerosene prices are likely to be...

Neither require e-mail address to give figures.

Based on that I'll call / ask for quotes from my local suppliers to get the best value when my 1225 litre tank can accommodate enough fuel.

QrizB said:

 Back during lockdown it got as low as 30p/litre, if I recall correctly (although I might be thinking of LPG!)

It may have been even lower in mid Summer 2020.  I paid 33.33 p in March 2020 and then 31.30 in November, missing the absolute low (no room to meet min 500 litre order).  It was 55.26 p last Order in August 24.  Still 30% in the tank and may be a similar price here at the moment.

26p plus VAT was my lowest in Aug 20 (1200l), Sep 24 was 49.4 plus VAT.

CliveOfIndia

26p plus vat was my lowest price, in November 2020.  I filled up just last Friday at 56p.

It's always tricky to forecast prices as there are a lot of factors at play.  Obviously the global price has a big impact.  But local supply and demand will also come into play.  Another major factor is currency exchange rates.  Oil is always traded in USD, so even if the global price falls, the USD/GBP exchange may mean that prices rise in the UK.

You should always phone round several local suppliers every time you need to fill up.  I've got about 8 local suppliers that I always phone, last Friday my quotes ranged from 56p to 68.5p.  And the cheapest supplier one time will almost always not be the cheapest the next time.  Some of them will offer to price-match other quotes.

Some places run an oil club, whereby residents all order at the same time so you get a cheaper price (obviously the supplier is saving on their delivery costs).  Might be worth seeing if you have one in your locality.  The only downside is that it does mean you can't necessarily order exactly when you want to.

Finally, you'll get a cheaper price if you order more.  I don't know if it's a nationwide thing, but certainly in my area the minimum delivery is 500l, and the price per litre drops slightly if you order 900l or more.

quartzz

when I filled up at 63p inc VAT in Feb, I honestly couldn't have waited a day later - it's coming at 60p incl VAT now or £310, which is £10 cheaper than I paid. Cookie crumbling and that. something to monitor though.

quartzz

I'm just keeping an eye on this at the moment

https://www.boilerjuice.com/heating-oil-prices/

and...wow. Is there a reason the price is tanking (not intended) at the moment?

QrizB

quartzz said:

I'm just keeping an eye on this at the moment
https://www.boilerjuice.com/heating-oil-prices/
and...wow. Is there a reason the price is tanking (not intended) at the moment?

I would guess that the markets are expecting a recession, which typically leads to lower demand for distillate fuels.

Or, alternatively, winter's over and heating oil demand is falling.

But that's just guessing either way.

HillStreetBlues

I have a £30 off 600l voucher (Certas) to be used by 31st Mar. currently they are the 2nd cheapest at 56.3 (&VAT) 55.8 is the cheapest.
With voucher ends up 53.87 with VAT. I won't need oil until winter, would people just wait if out expecting it  to drop more than 5p over the summer, or buy it now?