Rate my SIPP - ITV high conviction

Cobbler_tone

Maybe ITV are in for a boost. Out of curiosity I wanted to compare my single share holding, not that I am in at that level.
Not sure how long the OP has been in for, so 5 years is probably irrelevant. Mine is below ITV, around £2 per share per annum in dividends, so a rough calc approx half that of ITV in equivalent investment after currency conversion. 

Personally, I wouldn't be able to sleep at night. 

Juno_Moneta

"Not sure how long the OP has been in for, so 5 years is probably irrelevant."

Hi Cobbler - no not that long, been holding ITV from start of 2024, mostly in around 60p area, so up about 30% in just over a year.

Yes the ITV Studios rumours are rumbling on. I'm sticking with it!

FIREDreamer

This doesn’t sound good, though TMF is just as bad as Investors Chronicle for share tips …

Juno_Moneta

These TMF articles are literally clickbait - usually ending in “but I do know one great opportunity just click here!”

Yes of course ITV is down over a multi year view - which is exactly why I’m invested in it - because I think the valuation is too low now. 

I bought in around 60p and price just closed today just under 81p so I have over 30% profit to fall back on. I’ve said all this before. 

The past is the past. All that matters is your entry and exit. I know it was over £2 once - but that’s not where I bought.  

The author could write the same about all sorts of shares if he compared price 15 years ago to now. It’s makes no difference to investors today. 

Netflix competition? God this has been said again and again. ITV isn’t trying to knock Netflix off the global top spot. They’re happily generating billions in revenue per year doing what they do best in the UK - but also profiting by selling programmes to … yeah Netflix, Amazon Prime, Apple TV, BBC etc etc. So their success is also partly ITV Studios success. 

Linear television? Yes it is in decline. Which is exactly why ITV have a digital strategy with assets such as ITVX. In their 2024 results they confirm that over two thirds of their revenue now comes from content production and digital. Linear decline is a lazy journalistic trope used repeatedly without understanding the facts behind the business as it operates today. 

And finally the author amusingly says the potential sale of ITV Studios is a reason not to invest in ITV?! 

As if ITV will simply give it away without reaping any economic benefit?

It’s like saying your own net worth will fall if you sell your house. 

ITV will either hang on to ITV Studios, or retain shares in a newly floated entity possibly involving a third party like All3media as quoted in the press recently. 

There is plenty to like about the future for ITV in the new digital world.

Nobody should let junk articles like that put them off doing their own research about the investment potential of any share - it’s not worth posting frankly. 

Juno_Moneta

For journalistic balance(!) here is a much better written recent article (might require free registration) for anyone curious about what ITV has to offer today:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4766773-uk-broadcaster-itv-undervalued-assets-and-a-return-to-growth

• ITV, the leading commercial broadcaster in the UK, saw a 3% revenue decline in 2024 but expects growth across all revenue sources in 2025.
• ITV's low valuation, strong cash flow, and attractive dividend make it a compelling investment, with potential takeover bids adding further upside.
• The company has low debt, ongoing share buybacks, and cost-cutting measures, positioning it for accelerated EPS growth and capital appreciation.
• Despite industry concerns, traditional TV remains well positioned, and ITV's valuation at 7x earnings offers a significant opportunity for investors.

FIREDreamer

Its held up better than my globally diversified sipp though it hasn’t been fully dementia don proof!

Juno_Moneta

FIREDreamer said:

It’s held up better than my globally diversified sipp though it hasn’t been fully dementia don proof!

Hi FIRED, yeah everything’s taken a hit hasn’t it, though I’ve benefited very slightly with my approach of occasionally selling a few and buying back, but overall down like everyone else of course. 

And we can all take our own view on whether his tariff plan will have to be rowed back a little, anything could happen…

Your comment about your globally diversified SIPP got me thinking though - how has my portfolio as posted 10th Feb on page 1 done since then compared to a global tracker? There is a common comfort taken from ‘feeling diversified’ but does this actually hold up when such trackers have a huge US focus (typically 60%+?) which inevitably also puts them into things like big tech. 

So whilst it’s too short a period to form any meaningful conclusions I decided to compare to a common tracker I’ve owned in the past - VWRL (Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS ETF).

10th Feb 2025, ITV 77.45
10th Feb 2025, VWRL 115.17

4th April 2025, ITV 70.90
4th April 2025, VWRL 97.36

ITV loses 8.46%
VWRL loses 15.46%

Interesting. Perhaps that’s why there are no new comments laughing at me - because people have checked their own portfolios first!

Who knows where this will all go next. Fun times. 

(Edited to add I think VWRL had a small 46cent dividend in March, so 36p?)

(And ITV goes ex-div very soon on 10th April which will take a whopping 3.3p out - I say whopping as this is paying 4.6% vs 70.9p, so will have to include this in any future comparisons)

barnstar2077

Juno_Moneta said:

FIREDreamer said:

It’s held up better than my globally diversified sipp though it hasn’t been fully dementia don proof!

Hi FIRED, yeah everything’s taken a hit hasn’t it, though I’ve benefited very slightly with my approach of occasionally selling a few and buying back, but overall down like everyone else of course. 

And we can all take our own view on whether his tariff plan will have to be rowed back a little, anything could happen…

Your comment about your globally diversified SIPP got me thinking though - how has my portfolio as posted 10th Feb on page 1 done since then compared to a global tracker? There is a common comfort taken from ‘feeling diversified’ but does this actually hold up when such trackers have a huge US focus (typically 60%+?) which inevitably also puts them into things like big tech. 

So whilst it’s too short a period to form any meaningful conclusions I decided to compare to a common tracker I’ve owned in the past - VWRL (Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS ETF). I’m not going to be too clever and eg include dividends so here is a basic comparison:

10th Feb 2025, ITV 77.45
10th Feb 2025 VWRL 115.17

4th April 2025, ITV 70.90
4th April 2025, VWRL 97.36

ITV loses 8.46%
VWRL loses 15.46%

Interesting. Perhaps that’s why there are no new comments laughing at me - because people have checked their own portfolios first!

Who knows where this will all go next. Fun times. 

I'm not sure how many people have laughed at you.  I think people are more surprised and concerned by your decision than anything else.  Global trackers go up and down, it's what they do.  The thousands of companies contained within them will most likely recover.  No one could say the same about a single company.  No matter the person or the company.  Hope it works out for you though.  I'm partial to a bit of a gamble myself as you know.

Juno_Moneta

I’m humbled by the community concerns, thank you. 

But still sticking with ITV for now. Although I’m sure I will own more variety in future years…

Juno_Moneta

Back to my point about diversification though…

VWRL is a pretty solid and common choice as a passive ‘whole world tracker’ (I bet many MSEers hold it) but I wonder how many investors actually look under the hood?
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/v/vanguard-ftse-all-world-ucits-etf-usd-dist

Firstly, most starkly, it has to have a 62%weighting to US stocks - that’s just the reality of global tracking.
The next down doesn’t even come close, Japan at 5%.

Then looking at how it actually tracks the US, as I mentioned above it’s forced to hold mainly tech, Apple, NVIDIA, Microsoft etc etc. 

And I would guess that this isn’t isolated to VWRL and infact many ‘global trackers’ have become proxy tech investments - which is why recent events have hit so hard for so many. 

What I think I’m trying to say is that - yes whilst my concentrated portfolio is very risky right now - the answer isn’t simply buying global trackers instead as their diversity is questionable. Building a TRULY diversified portfolio is actually not that easy and inevitably we will skew towards eg large cap or small cap or a particular sector or region - and further it then needs regular attention to maintain the diversification we all ultimately think ‘is the right thing to do’. 

Maybe recent events are a good opportunity for everyone to review how diversified their own portfolios really are…