Rate my SIPP - ITV high conviction

kempiejon

results day, 75p today

Successful financial, operating and creative performance, driven by strong strategic execution
· Group adjusted EBITA up 11% in 2024, reflecting record profits in ITV Studios and growth in M&E profits and margin
· ITVX continued to perform strongly: digital viewing up 12% and digital advertising revenue up 15% in 2024, delivering attractive returns. By the end of 2025, we will have recouped the cumulative investment in ITVX, much earlier than anticipated
· Delivered £60 million of permanent efficiencies in 2024, £10 million ahead of plan; programme continues into 2025 delivering a further £30 million of non-content savings

https://www.itvplc.com/~/media/Files/I/ITV-PLC-V2/ITV Plc Full Year Results 2024 - Release.pdf

Juno_Moneta

Now that we've got all the 'you're a fake', 'you're a troll', 'you're an idiot' type replies out of the way, I'd like to revert to simply providing anyone curious with some updates at key moments on my journey.

So yep as kempiejon says above - today is ITV 2024 Results day.

I've pasted with this message an updated HL portfolio screenshot, my holding size has increased only a little bit since page 1.

So what's it like to hold this position before and into a big announcement?

Well yeah it does require some nerve, ITV has often dropped a lot (like 10% or so) on results day as it has a habit of saying things the market doesn't like - such as "Hey we're going to invest a ton of money in ITVX!".

But I have done a lot of research and owned and followed everything ITV for a couple of years now, and frankly I was hoping for good results today - not shooting the lights out, but providing some confidence of revenue and profit growth after the dip related to the unfortunate Hollywood writers strike.

Anyway I opened the 7am RNS and took it all in, thought it was pretty ok.
https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/itv1/rns1/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=2140&newsid=1914920

Then it's another hour wait until market open at 8am - wondering what the general reaction will be...
It was actually pretty good all day - thought it might stop around +6% but kept on going with a final push to around +9.7% (not sure why HL show 9.85% on the Total line - seems like a bug)

Volatility works both ways - it isn't always a proxy for losses, and today brings my position a lot closer to the post on page 1... with a big day gain of over £70k.

I'm pleased to see the full year dividend remains at 3.3p, so May 2025 income = £34,734

Interim dividend expected Nov 2025 at 1.7p = £17,893 (predicted same as 2024)

So year total dividend income at 5.0p = £52,627 (future dividends not guaranteed!)

You will be unsurprised(!) to hear that I operate a dividend reinvestment approach - so expect to put these funds back into ITV. Therefore with other deposits, I expect my holding to be above 1.1m shares by May, will update then again.


Thanks for reading.

Nick_Dr1

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/mar/06/itv-profits-more-than-double-as-production-arm-reports-record-earnings
Might be something in it! Particularly the bit about UK media companies being undervalued. Not that I believe that the Guardian is a good source of financial advice normally.

Linton

Juno_Moneta said:

Now that we've got all the 'you're a fake', 'you're a troll', 'you're an idiot' type replies out of the way, I'd like to revert to simply providing anyone curious with some updates at key moments on my journey.

So yep as kempiejon says above - today is ITV 2024 Results day.

I've pasted with this message an updated HL portfolio screenshot, my holding size has increased only a little bit since page 1.

So what's it like to hold this position before and into a big announcement?

Well yeah it does require some nerve, ITV has often dropped a lot (like 10% or so) on results day as it has a habit of saying things the market doesn't like - such as "Hey we're going to invest a ton of money in ITVX!".

But I have done a lot of research and owned and followed everything ITV for a couple of years now, and frankly I was hoping for good results today - not shooting the lights out, but providing some confidence of revenue and profit growth after the dip related to the unfortunate Hollywood writers strike.

Anyway I opened the 7am RNS and took it all in, thought it was pretty ok.
https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/itv1/rns1/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=2140&newsid=1914920

Then it's another hour wait until market open at 8am - wondering what the general reaction will be...
It was actually pretty good all day - thought it might stop around +6% but kept on going with a final push to around +9.7% (not sure why HL show 9.85% on the Total line - seems like a bug)

Volatility works both ways - it isn't always a proxy for losses, and today brings my position a lot closer to the post on page 1... with a big day gain of over £70k.

I'm pleased to see the full year dividend remains at 3.3p, so May 2025 income = £34,734

Interim dividend expected Nov 2025 at 1.7p = £17,893 (predicted same as 2024)

So year total dividend income at 5.0p = £52,627 (future dividends not guaranteed!)

You will be unsurprised(!) to hear that I operate a dividend reinvestment approach - so expect to put these funds back into ITV. Therefore with other deposits, I expect my holding to be above 1.1m shares by May, will update then again.

Thanks for reading.

What is plan B if events prove your predictions wrong?

WIth global index fund investing you only permanently lose a serious % of your money if all major stock markets across the world drop catastrophically for a long time period which would imply the end of the world as we know it when all bets on anything, including your job and the continued exustance of the financial infrastructure, are off. But ITV failing would hardly register.  If you are investing life changing amounts of money you need to consider all possibilities, both good and bad.  

Cobbler_tone

We have similar conversations on company shares at work all the time. I have changed my views based on reading the views and opinions on here. Ultimately it is an individual decision. Some people sit on £100k worth of shares that are worth triple what they were 5 years ago....whereas I sell mine when they become tax free, i.e triple what they were when I bought them. Sitting on them maintains the risk of them dropping but clearly introduces the chance of them growing further and receiving bi-annual dividends.

kempiejon

I used to work for Sainsbury's, when I got the job there I sold off my previously held investments in the company. It felt to me that if they were going to give me money for my time, add to my pension then coupled with my investments I had a lot of eggs in the Sainsbury basket. I wound down my holdings in the company. I don't work for them anymore and own some shares again.

bjorn_toby_wilde

Cobbler_tone said:

We have similar conversations on company shares at work all the time. I have changed my views based on reading the views and opinions on here. Ultimately it is an individual decision. Some people sit on £100k worth of shares that are worth triple what they were 5 years ago....whereas I sell mine when they become tax free, i.e triple what they were when I bought them. Sitting on them maintains the risk of them dropping but clearly introduces the chance of them growing further and receiving bi-annual dividends.

I always did the same as you. I had some share options at one point and the company I worked for was taken over by a huge multinational. They were worth about £15k at that point. Subsequently the share price dipped and when the time limit came and I had to exercise the options they were worth nothing.

It wasn’t a huge loss but it changed my thinking. After that I would sell my options and sharesave shares in tranches when I thought the price was right and either invest in my ISAs or pay chunks off the mortgage.

Cobbler_tone

bjorn_toby_wilde said:

Cobbler_tone said:

We have similar conversations on company shares at work all the time. I have changed my views based on reading the views and opinions on here. Ultimately it is an individual decision. Some people sit on £100k worth of shares that are worth triple what they were 5 years ago....whereas I sell mine when they become tax free, i.e triple what they were when I bought them. Sitting on them maintains the risk of them dropping but clearly introduces the chance of them growing further and receiving bi-annual dividends.

I always did the same as you. I had some share options at one point and the company I worked for was taken over by a huge multinational. They were worth about £15k at that point. Subsequently the share price dipped and when the time limit came and I had to exercise the options they were worth nothing.

It wasn’t a huge loss but it changed my thinking. After that I would sell my options and sharesave shares in tranches when I thought the price was right and either invest in my ISAs or pay chunks off the mortgage.

Sounds like you made good use of them.
It is even more important for me to minimise my expose as I approach the twilight of my career. On the day I leave I need to offload them all really, regardless of price. With a BOGOF and tax break they would have to drop by around 70% to actually 'lose', although the price is fluid and some will have cost more than others.
It will be the only time I can get hold of the lot tax free, without any worries about CGT. If you start transferring them it introduces another set of potential costs and challenges.

Juno_Moneta

ITV managed to hold the gains made yesterday and build on them - just wanted to update as this now takes the holding beyond the original post on page 1.

Someone posted on Page 14 that i'd already lost £72k!

But that's only if you sell right, and i think by now you all can see that i'm in this for much more.
Current profit approaching £200k now so the buffer is good.

More volatility ahead, in both directions I suspect...

vacheron

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/itv-in-merger-talks-to-form-3bn-creative-powerhouse-listed-on-london-market/ar-AA1AZTrF?ocid=financepwa&cvid=8e7bf9f65a7a4f6c8ed9bff88c1253dd&ei=32