House price crash?

Pookle

Realistically, how much (if any) do we think house prices will fall during 2008?

I only ask because we sold our house in September and banked the money, it is sitting in a high interest account earning a fair bit until the house transfer here goes through (buying off family). However, we are starting to think this may or may not happen and was wondering if we were in the market this year to buy a new house when would be best to strike?

brit1234

I reckon 20% with more in specific areas. The big drops will happen in a couple of months after April due to the flood of buy to let properties.

PasturesNew

It's not like asking when the sales are on in a particular shop.

I see evidence the crash has started. But that doesn't mean I can see it on a property by property basis.

I would explain it by saying: imagine 100 houses all priced up at £260k.

Every month mentally knock £1000 off them all, but only type the new reduced price tag on 10 of them. Any one house (the one you are after) might not be randomly selected for 24 months.... at which time the house selected would show it was on at £260k and is now £24k less.

Now ... how many months/years will it go on? 2 years? 5?

It is a slow thing that is hard to watch.

lisyloo

If there is a house price crash then it will take many years to get the best deals.
Last time the trough was between 1993 and 1996 depending on which graph you look at so that's 4-7 years.

Obviously it depends on your circumstances.

We bought in 2003 despite people saying there might be a crash because I wasn't prepared to wait for 4-7 years (and even then the 30% discount was not guaranteed).

If you are happy renting and it's OK for you and you family then carry on, but be aware it might be a long wait, otherwise if the security and happiness that some people get from their own home is very important then it's sometimes not worth waiting.

No easy answer I'm afraid you jsut have to weigh up the trade-offs for you and your family.

I'm personally far from convinced that we'll have a crash although I recognise a number of factors are very challenging right now.

$$$_12

Daily Mail readers reckon 11% or more:

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/tools-and-calculators/polls/results.html?in_poll_id=15993&in_page_id=88&in_question_id=15921&in_exists=N

Pookle

Thank you. I am just speculating really. We probably will do the family transfer thing but I am just pondering.......

hearts

.........I on the other hand do not see any sign of a crash and expect prices to be dependent on area. Some may see small falls others rises depending on local conditions.

Generali

My guess is that if you buy at auction and buy with your head then there are going to be some very good deals around by the end of the year (say 15-20% off current mkt price in middling areas for flats and smaller houses).

I've consistantly called the housing market wrong for the past 3 years at least so if you base your decisions on my opinion I take no responsibility for you ending up broke.

dannyboycey

hearts wrote: »

.........I on the other hand do not see any sign of a crash

Vested interest in other words?

Gorgeous_George

A couple of interest rate cuts should make a HPC less likely.

Inflation will rise making properties worth less in real terms even if nominal values remain unchanged.

STRs will push rentals up. Increasing yields will tempt BTLers into the market.

Due to the credit crunch, the future will see less people owning their own homes and the average BTLer owning a larger portfolios.

GG

Running_Horse

Pookle wrote: »

Realistically, how much (if any) do we think house prices will fall during 2008?

Nobody here is in a position to answer your question accurately. I suggest you buy a crystal ball for a more accurate answer.