House price crash?

Pookle

Running_Horse wrote: »

Nobody here is in a position to answer your question accurately. I suggest you buy a crystal ball for a more accurate answer.

WOW, thank you for your really helpful insight. Why didn't I think of that.

vdh

My personal take is that a lot will depend on local conditions. No doubt the growth will be slower even in sought after areas and those areas which benefited from abnormal growth without any rationale might suffer 10-20% decline. 2008 Apr-Aug might be a good time to invest from a medium to long term (5-10 yr) perspective but not for the faint hearted as no-one is clear at this point as to what might happen in the short to medium term.

Some areas that will benefit from govt infrastructure investments in the run up to 2012 olympics could be the hot ones to invest.

On a lighter note, I don't really pay much heed to analysts because if they had a crystal ball none of these crisis over the last century would have happened. A key indicator that has never ditched ever since I read about it in the book 'Ahead of the curve' is Consumer Spending which is yet to slow. However, in the run up to Olympics, decline in consumer spending might be more than offset by Govt. and consequently business spending helping a soft landing from the current crisis.

What do you all think?

Lavendyr

I would suggest you join the thread at the top called "House Price Crash discussion" since mods have requested here: http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=577151 that house price crash discussions be kept to that thread. You'll also find a plethora of opinions on the future of the housing market there

Pookle

Lavendyr wrote: »

I would suggest you join the thread at the top called "House Price Crash discussion" since mods have requested here: http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=577151 that house price crash discussions be kept to that thread. You'll also find a plethora of opinions on the future of the housing market there

Many thanks for that, will go and have a look at that. I wasn't aware that new threads weren't allowed

narced

Average house prices have always followed a long term average of around 3x average income; at present we're more like 6x income (see for example the data at Nationwide's site). So although we may not have a complete crash, there is likely to be a decline in real prices over a number of years - after the 1988/89 peak it took until 1995/6 until prices recovered.

Given that UK Plc is in a terrible state (huge balance of payments deficit, silly amount of personal debt, no manufacturing industry to speak of, overreliance on the financial services industry which is now cracking under the credit crunch) all the above may of course be wildly optimistic.

HammersFan

I'll go out on a limb and call a 2-3% rise. A weak spring and summer market but a return of some growth in the autumn after a good few interest rate cuts. There'll be a lot of local variation and prices on inner city new build flats / apartements could come off a lot really letting FTB'ers in if its the typoe of property they want, but family houses I think could well rise a little bit.

All this, of course, is possibly very wrong indeed.

Rover

It would appear the 'board ' maybe approaching the acceptance stage ?

BoE interest rate cuts won't make any difference if the banks scale back on lending, which is a dead cert. Also BoE rates don't neccesarily reflect mortgage IR's (unless you already have a tracker).

There are massive debts to be paid and the blinkered all over the developed world will be repaying them for some time via interest rates on a depreciating assets.

Running_Horse

Pookle wrote: »

WOW, thank you for your really helpful insight. Why didn't I think of that.

OK, prices will drop by 17.23%, unless Gordon Brown has a nervous breakdown in which case the exact fall will be 29.17%. For a more exact forecast click here:

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=577151

Mozette

$$$ wrote: »

Daily Mail readers reckon 11% or more:

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/tools-and-calculators/polls/results.html?in_poll_id=15993&in_page_id=88&in_question_id=15921&in_exists=N

Wouldn't worry then...:rolleyes:

ManAtHome

Running_Horse wrote: »

OK, prices will drop by 17.23%, unless Gordon Brown has a nervous breakdown in which case the exact fall will be 29.17%.

Yeah, but is that by 5pm on 31/12 or midnight..? And haven't you got the percentages the wrong way round..?