At what point in the year would you expect to use more than your DD?

chubsta

It has been a pretty cold November where I live, and due to health issues I have had the heating on more than I generally do to stay comfortable. Like many people I have built up a decent credit ready for the Winter - I am classing December to March 31st as 'Winter' as don't usually use heating much in April.

In November I used 80% of that months DD, whereas prior to that I was using approx 40% of my DD each month since April, so I am at least still building up credit, albeit at a lower rate - this is not likely to continue in December.

So, with effectively 4 months of Winter to go, would you expect to be dipping into your 'reserve' at this point or is it generally just January and February which uses all the credit up?

molerat

Looking at my past history it has been any time between October to April depending on the weather.  My worst October used about the same as my best December.

EssexHebridean

I was already a way over in November - total bill for the month was £108.82 against a DD of £80 - that DD is set well below the level it should be though as it's offsetting credit above what would usually be expected pre-winter.  That said, last year November was £132.55 so it's definitely an improvement on that! (£15 of that saving is down to electricity on Agile)

Swipe

For me it's Dec, Jan and Feb

Gerry1

chubsta said:

Like many people I have built up a decent credit ready for the Winter

Very generous of you to donate the interest to your supplier !  Why not switch to Monthly Variable Direct Debit and keep it for yourself?

RelievedSheff

In a typical year our November and April DD payments are pretty much exactly the same as our use.

May to October we use a lot less than our DD amount and December to March we tend to use more than the DD amount.

It usually evens out about right over the year.

It was cold this November so our actual use was slightly over our DD amount (£108 used with a £98 DD amount) but we have plenty of credit on our account so not worried about that.

matelodave

we've used around 38% more than our DD in November whereas October was exactly the  same as our DD. This November we used more than last because its been colder

I expect Dec, Jan and Feb to be about twice our DD and then to equalise again in April with March being about the same as November not far off what @RelievedSheff suggests above.

Obviously very weather dependant but, assuming that the energy company doesn't keep mucking around with the DD, it balances out over 12 months

Netexporter

I muck about with the DD as the year goes by, trying to maintain a balance close to zero. I can change the DD every month, with a couple of clicks, if I wish. Additionally Octopus has the facility to make additional interim payments if you've messed up your calculations.

Lots of variables, for me, as I'm on Agile, so usually very cheap until the Dunkelflaute messes things up, like last month, so only slightly cheaper than the SVT. Add in an EV  to charge, and recently a heat pump and solar, there is never a dull moment. Batteries will be the next factor to account for. Keeps me off the streets!

Scot_39

Gerry1 said:

chubsta said:

Like many people I have built up a decent credit ready for the Winter

Very generous of you to donate the interest to your supplier !  Why not switch to Monthly Variable Direct Debit and keep it for yourself?

Because perhaps their supplier doesn't offer it.

And even if did would arguably not offer it at the same rates as annualised DD. (*)

One - Ovo iirc - who did, dropped it c2022 - just as interest rates and suplliers debt climbed.

[* bit of topic,

Inherent in the Ofgem svt cap rates are factors based on assumption about impact of payment method on operators capital costs - and on costs due to risk of arrearsc/ default.

2 of the factors that sees current standard credit terms cap £112 more than that for DD.

With a presumption - at least or aguably even at lower levels in 2018 (as part of the arguments for switching is the perceived drag positive of average balances on annual accounts) that the DD payment operates at least part time with payment in advance - with a positive impact on operating costs (which woul of course disappear if CCB funds 100% ring fenced as some demanded) and that standard credit runs almost universally in a negative cash flow sense with higher risks.
In simple terms you either pay the supplier before or after consuming the service / units

The delays on MVDD  may not be as significant as 3 m  credit billing - but they are not dissimilar to those now being moved to monthly billing.  Who afaik still pay the full £112 cap difference pro rata.

But those on MVDD  -   if - at least as described here -  are still paying late - later than billed even - so 100% that's definite more negative cash flow to suplliers - paying for use after consumption - than that presumed by Ofgen - at least that built into first cap DD rates.

Reed Appendix 8 on payment method uplifts if want to see original factors, up for sc down for dd, net 1.9% difference for cash flow costs iirc - haven't located current years version yet.]

bob2302

chubsta said:

..
I am classing December to March 31st as 'Winter' as don't usually use heating much in April.

...
So, with effectively 4 months of Winter to go, would you expect to be dipping into your 'reserve' at this point or is it generally just January and February which uses all the credit up?

FWIW meteorological mid-winter is the middle of January, and I've found it to be more symmetric. I'd include November, I've been to a lot of firework displays that were bitterly cold.  

pseudodox

Those of us paying MVDD are indeed paying after consumption, a bit like I pay at the till in Tesco AFTER I have filled my trolley with goods.  Or like I used to get paid when I was working AFTER I had given a month of my time and effort to the company who employed me.

Due to the DD system the energy supplier does not receive my payment until 10-14 days after bill date.  BUT they then get to keep every penny I pay them. I would be happy to pay them as soon as I receive the bill, but of course for that they would charge more.  If they prefer to receive less money 2 weeks later than that is their choice.  But at no point are they holding onto and accounting for in their system monies which they may at some time have to return to me.

The admin costs of a MVDD where I submit actual readings on the 1st and by the 2nd have an accurate bill and they simply have to request the correct payment by DD must be significanlty lower than constantly amending DDs, spending customer service time negotiating refunds or discussing increased FDD and arguing over estimated readings.  And those consumers who are constantly amending their FDDs up and down might as well be on MVDD anyway - just one tiny action per month to submit readings takes me less than 5 minutes.  And then a further few minutes to download and check the bill against my usage spreadsheet - spot on to the penny again today.  I don't need to pay any further attention to my account other than check with my bank that the DD has been paid.  Another 2 minute job.  So less than 10 minutes per month leaving oodles of time to get on with life.