Pension investment predictions

Sarahspangles

Spivo46 said:

Moonwolf said:

Current trends will continue unless-

War in the middle east escalates and creates global uncertainty.
War between Russian and Ukraine escalates creating global uncertainty.
China invades Taiwan and creates global uncertainty.
Trump decides to go ahead with tariffs and creates an international trade war that creates global uncertainty.
The Atlantic Meridonal Overturning Circulation slows down or changes causing particular severe winters across northern Europe and subsequent economic issues.
Aliens land on Earth because they are fed up with our idiocy and have decided to intervene.
A large but currently unseen asteroid hits the earth.
Skynet becomes sentient.
Cows become sentient.

Any one of a range of other bad things I haven't thought of happen.

Hope this helps.

This helps thanks - on that basis, i have sold up, bought that Aston Martin, booked the world cruise, hit the bottle and stopped eating healthy - sorted

What will you do next week though?

El_Torro

The last year has been a very good year for stock markets. The year before that was lackluster and the year before that was negative. Based on this I expect the next 12 months to be relatively positive. Maybe not as good as the last 12 months but still much better than putting money in cash. The 12 months after that could be good, could be bad, I'd say 50 / 50. Depends on too many things that we currently just don't know. 

So there you go, my prediction. Worth every penny I charged for it. 

I think the chances of funds being worth less in 2 years time than they are today are high. High enough that if you know you are going to be spending a lot of money in 2 years time then I would de-risk it now, maybe even put it in cash. 

Albermarle

Moonwolf said:

Current trends will continue unless-

War in the middle east escalates and creates global uncertainty.
War between Russian and Ukraine escalates creating global uncertainty.
China invades Taiwan and creates global uncertainty.
Trump decides to go ahead with tariffs and creates an international trade war that creates global uncertainty.
The Atlantic Meridonal Overturning Circulation slows down or changes causing particular severe winters across northern Europe and subsequent economic issues.
Aliens land on Earth because they are fed up with our idiocy and have decided to intervene.
A large but currently unseen asteroid hits the earth.
Skynet becomes sentient.
Cows become sentient.

Any one of a range of other bad things I haven't thought of happen.

Hope this helps.

One point to consider is that Global events/bad news often does not translate into poor stock market performance.
There is a constant stream of bad news all the time, but in the long term the markets still rise, even in wartime.

Spivo46

El_Torro said:

The last year has been a very good year for stock markets. The year before that was lackluster and the year before that was negative. Based on this I expect the next 12 months to be relatively positive. Maybe not as good as the last 12 months but still much better than putting money in cash. The 12 months after that could be good, could be bad, I'd say 50 / 50. Depends on too many things that we currently just don't know. 

So there you go, my prediction. Worth every penny I charged for it. 

I think the chances of funds being worth less in 2 years time than they are today are high. High enough that if you know you are going to be spending a lot of money in 2 years time then I would de-risk it now, maybe even put it in cash. 

thank you El Torro - Good feedback

Nebulous2

Spivo46 said:

Moonwolf said:

Current trends will continue unless-

War in the middle east escalates and creates global uncertainty.
War between Russian and Ukraine escalates creating global uncertainty.
China invades Taiwan and creates global uncertainty.
Trump decides to go ahead with tariffs and creates an international trade war that creates global uncertainty.
The Atlantic Meridonal Overturning Circulation slows down or changes causing particular severe winters across northern Europe and subsequent economic issues.
Aliens land on Earth because they are fed up with our idiocy and have decided to intervene.
A large but currently unseen asteroid hits the earth.
Skynet becomes sentient.
Cows become sentient.

Any one of a range of other bad things I haven't thought of happen.

Hope this helps.

This helps thanks - on that basis, i have sold up, bought that Aston Martin, booked the world cruise, hit the bottle and stopped eating healthy - sorted

On a slightly more modest trajectory---- I retired three years ago, took a very part-time job, and accumulated more than I spent in the first three years, despite being well short of my state pension age. 

I've holidayed abroad 3 times this year, one of them a significant and expensive antipodean trip. I've just bought a new vehicle. I'm building up a head of steam to buy a new caravan. The last two may be correlated to Trump being re-elected. 

I'm still hoping this year is a significant outlier in my post-retirement expenditure, and that I hit SPA better off than when I retired. 

But for someone who is more attuned to accumulation than decumulation - this year has been some ride! 

barnstar2077

Albermarle said:

Moonwolf said:

Current trends will continue unless-

War in the middle east escalates and creates global uncertainty.
War between Russian and Ukraine escalates creating global uncertainty.
China invades Taiwan and creates global uncertainty.
Trump decides to go ahead with tariffs and creates an international trade war that creates global uncertainty.
The Atlantic Meridonal Overturning Circulation slows down or changes causing particular severe winters across northern Europe and subsequent economic issues.
Aliens land on Earth because they are fed up with our idiocy and have decided to intervene.
A large but currently unseen asteroid hits the earth.
Skynet becomes sentient.
Cows become sentient.

Any one of a range of other bad things I haven't thought of happen.

Hope this helps.

One point to consider is that Global events/bad news often does not translate into poor stock market performance.
There is a constant stream of bad news all the time, but in the long term the markets still rise, even in wartime.

With the the US spending 900 billion a year on it's military, an argument could be made that the economy is helped by the odd conflict here and there, that sees them needing to replace some of their million dollar missiles etc.