Octopus - switched to Fixed too late?

Shoxt3r

Hi there,

I received the Weekly Money Tips email tonight and hadn't given our energy costs any thought until reading the headline about switching.

We've been with Octopus using Flexible Octopus and since March (new smart meters installed, so figures don't go further back unfortunately) we've used the following:

- Gas, 672kWh
- Electric, 2,882kWh

We rarely use the heating, though suspect we will be this winter and no EV to think about and other usage is pretty much average, if not less than usual. We spend about £50-60 a month on energy, so have a healthy balance of about £400 going into the winter months hopefully.

I've just switched the supply to Octopus' 12M Fixed but is it too late to really make a difference, now that the price rise has already happened today? I feel like this is something I should have considered at least a week ago. During the switch process for example, Octopus estimated we would save about £65 over the course of the year, compared with what we pay now.

I take some comfort in the fact we can back out again with no exit fees...

Thanks!

Gerry1

Looks like you've quoted the gas usage in m³ rather than kWh? Multiplying by 11.2 will be near enough.

You should be able to see previous kWh usage from earlier bills.

There should be yellow labels next to the meters showing the closing readings on the old meters.

Find two actual reading dates about 12 months apart (customer, meter reader, smart but NOT estimated).

Call the start Date 1, the meter changeover Date 2 and the end of the 12 months Date 3.

For each fuel, add up all the kWh amounts shown on the bills from Date 1 to Date 2.

Then do the sums from Date 2 to Date 3.  For electricity it's the difference in kWh meter readings and for gas it's the difference in m³ readings multiplied by 11.2 to convert them to kWh.

Add up the old and new amounts to get the annual kWh consumption of each fuel.  You can then enter these numbers into a comparison site.  Make sure to see the whole of the market, not just the default of 'tariffs we can switch you to'.

Sadly it seems you're too late for the Octopus 15M tariff which has been withdrawn.

spot1034

Fixed rates have actually come back down from their recent highs and are now similar to what you'd have been able to get in July and the first few days of August. The tariff you've gone for has pretty much the same prices as the standard variable up until just a couple of days ago. A month ago you might well have thought you'd missed the boat, but you've been lucky and who knows where prices will be going next with everything that's going on. 

(Whether a 15 month fix might have been better than a 12 depends entirely on what happens to prices next year, and no one can make anything more than a wild guess about that right now.)

bristolleedsfan

Gerry1 said:

Sadly it seems you're too late for the Octopus 15M tariff which has been withdrawn.

North West Region - 12 month fix E down from  24.83 p/kWh to 23.54 p/kWh. G down 0.01p kWh

phillw

spot1034 said:

(Whether a 15 month fix might have been better than a 12 depends entirely on what happens to prices next year, and no one can make anything more than a wild guess about that right now.)

This is where I am, I switched a couple of days ago to the 15 month fix.
I could go to the 12 month fix and it would save me £22 for a year but that could be eaten up by an £8 a month rise next september. 

bristolleedsfan

phillw said:

spot1034 said:

(Whether a 15 month fix might have been better than a 12 depends entirely on what happens to prices next year, and no one can make anything more than a wild guess about that right now.)

This is where I am, I switched a couple of days ago to the 15 month fix.
I could go to the 12 month fix and it would save me £22 for a year but that could be eaten up by an £8 a month rise next september. 

Some might suggest a fixed tariff expiring during winter period  leading up to January 1st energy cap change might be more expensive than re-fixing during autumn months.

How do you know what energy tariff rates are going to be next September ????

phillw

bristolleedsfan said:

Some might suggest a fixed tariff expiring during winter period  leading up to January 1st energy cap change might be more expensive than re-fixing during autumn months.

How do you know what energy tariff rates are going to be next September ????

I don't, nobody does. There is a prediction on the link about fixing though.

The 12 month will end just as the rates rise before Christmas. A January fix should be lower, because winter is nearly over. The way the cap works means it always drags behind.

The energy market is kinda broken by the cap. I think I preferred it before.

If there is definitely going to be a cheaper fix in the next 12 months, then I would take the 12 month fix as there are no exit fees. The question is, will there be...

Shoxt3r

Gerry1 said:

Looks like you've quoted the gas usage in m³ rather than kWh? Multiplying by 11.2 will be near enough.

You should be able to see previous kWh usage from earlier bills.

There should be yellow labels next to the meters showing the closing readings on the old meters.

Find two actual reading dates about 12 months apart (customer, meter reader, smart but NOT estimated).

Call the start Date 1, the meter changeover Date 2 and the end of the 12 months Date 3.

For each fuel, add up all the kWh amounts shown on the bills from Date 1 to Date 2.

Then do the sums from Date 2 to Date 3.  For electricity it's the difference in kWh meter readings and for gas it's the difference in m³ readings multiplied by 11.2 to convert them to kWh.

Add up the old and new amounts to get the annual kWh consumption of each fuel.  You can then enter these numbers into a comparison site.  Make sure to see the whole of the market, not just the default of 'tariffs we can switch you to'.

Sadly it seems you're too late for the Octopus 15M tariff which has been withdrawn.

Gas usage is in kWh direct from the Octopus app. I will check for the yellow labels but as it stands the app hasn't reported on any usage before March 2024. Even the April 2024 readings are blank.

I believe it's due to issues we had with getting the smart meters installed and then we found after a month that the meters were failing to report back to Octopus.

I will pick up with Octopus to see what has happened to this data, as the app states that "your readings are on the way". If this data is missing then the nearest 12 month period will mean having to wait until May 2025.

debitcardmayhem

The app should allow you to access all bills prior to the meter change…

molerat

Octopus 12m October v1 is only just above the July cap rate, which was the cheapest in a long time, so IMO is worth it.  I don't think any fixes were really good value until now.  I fixed with Eon on Thursday at about £5 under the July cap so saving £200 on my EAC at the Oct cap rate. Looking at the crystal balls it doesn't look like prices will get near the July cap in the foreseeable future.  Friday night that fix had gone and the new was £97 more.  The Octopus October fix is showing as £23 dearer than my Eon fix.

spot1034

The recent Cornwall Insight revised forecast of a small drop in the cap in January is already looking a bit out of date, as wholesale rates have risen since they published it. A small increase now looks more likely. EDF and British Gas both now do price cap forecasts, updated every week. This week they both made upward revisions and the market has risen further since, so I'd expect a further increase in their next updates early next week.