Coming off EDF Fixed (old plan) - unsure what to do

darkcloudi

So i am coming off a very old rate before rates went crazy, its the Easy Online 3 year Fix Sept 24 with EDF Energy, now obviously the standing charges have doubled so going to feel this impact.

Trying to figure out whether to fix, as noticed between the standard rate and the fix rate they are offering is around £11 difference a month, only looking at the standard rate in case rates drop in March / April, since I fixed in the winter my rates tend to be more expensive as thats when energy companies put there prices up (guess easy money for them and Ofgem price cap tends to follow that pattern - as winter we use more), guess its a difficult one and was wondering what others do. Better to wait and then fix when rates drop or does it really make a massive difference as potentially paying more over the 6 months

debitcardmayhem

If you find a fix that suits just make sure it has £0 exit fees

darkcloudi

Thanks, just noticed Octopus has just that, thats probably more ideal then some of the other companies who have a exit fee

spot1034

At the moment nobody can tell you what will happen beyond the end of March. It's impossible to make any kind of meaningful guess, and prices are not manipulated in the way you suggest to be of benefit to suppliers - there is a very transparent formula which can be used day by day to duplicate the calculations Ofgem themselves use to determine each price cap, and there are some organisations that already do this and get pretty close to the actual figure when it's published.

All we do know is that the price cap is to rise by around 10% next week. We are half way through the assessment period for the January price cap, and at the moment I'd say we are looking at not much change for Q125. The best known of these forecasters who do the sums alongside the regulator is called Cornwall Insight and they are currently suggesting a further small increase in January, but others who update their forecasts more often than CI are now predicting a slight fall, taking account of recent weakness in wholesale prices but having said that there was a sharp rise again yesterday, so the outlook changes a bit with each passing day. However I'd say that if we carry on with the present pattern of 'up one day, down the next' within a range we are indeed looking at only a small change in January - whether up or down it's impossible to say yet.

Beyond that, no one knows and few would like to predict. A lot depends on international politics, and if we have a cold winter in northern Europe on top of a possible escalation in political tensions around the world we might well not see a reduction in prices come April - remember the Q2 price cap is based on calculations made during the period from mid-November to mid-February.

I'd suggest that if you have the chance to fix at around the present (July to September) price cap, meaning you'll pay less from as early as next Tuesday you'd be silly to turn that down, but do I know for sure that you won't lose out between April and September next year? No, sorry, I don't and neither does anyone else.

darkcloudi

@spot1034 - that is some useful information, thanks. I'm going for Octopus and although close to the standard rate that i would get with EDF at least its fixed, best thing is it has no exit fee, so at least that helps a little.