Just for interest...(none political)....ifMeans testing SP, what minimum income level would you set?

lookbook

A lot of those gilts are owned by China 🇨🇳 🤔 😳 

BlackKnightMonty

Linton said:

BlackKnightMonty said:

strawb_shortcake said:

OldScientist said:

Sea_Shell said:

I can't see how it can ever be taken away, realistically.

Todays workers effectively pay the SP of the retirees.    You have no 'pot' of your own NI payments to call on.

Could you really tell every school leaver (eg. from this point on) that you will not be entitled to any SP when you reach ...80!!     You must make your own provision.

BUT, we still need to you make NI payments, as you need to pay for those who are already getting the benefit of the SP.  

Sorry, not sorry!! 

There is already widespread belief that the state pension will not exist, be reduced or only available at greater ages for current school leavers (e.g., see https://www.ftadviser.com/state-pension/2023/10/19/half-of-savers-believe-state-pension-won-t-exist-for-young-people/).

My Dad told me over 30 years ago that he would be unlikely to get a state pension, and I certainly wouldn't so to start a pension as soon as I could. I would have been around 8 at the time and it stuck with me. I do have a good public sector pension, but realistically I can't see the state pension disappearing; changing yes. I just hope it's not a case of keep raising the age as my Alpha pension is linked to state pension age.

I suspect your Dad is right. Unless we get spending under control the current economic policies are unsustainable. So further reform to the SP is likely. Increasing the age before your receive it, and reducing the amount your receive for all but the poorest seems likely to me.

This sort of argument seems flawed.  National accounting is far more complex and counter-intuitive than the annual accounts of a small business

Total government debt currently amounts to about £2.5Tn.  To whom is it owed?

 Well, oddly enough it is balanced by about £2.5Tn in gilts.  OK, who owns the gilts?

On the whole we do, in the form of our financial institutions such as pension companies, insurance companies, banks, investment funds etc.  The interest from the gilts and their capital value when they mature returns to us.  So in the same way that the cost of liabilities are pushed to the future, so is the means to pay them.

Is the model sustainable in the long term? Almost certainly not.  But then nothing is.  The best that can be done is to manage for the lifetimes of the people alive now.  For SP, something like the current rate of increases SP age with some tweaks may well be sufficient for a few decades.

Howeve the enormous changes in the world economic structure that seem to have started could well be of far greater importance as problems for the future generations of UK people to resolve.

Fudging things and can kicking. We need to do better.

Nebulous2

lookbook said:

A lot of those gilts are owned by China 🇨🇳 🤔 😳 

That's the advantage for them of running a big current account surplus, while we ran a deficit.

Not only are a lot of our gilts foreign owned, but a lot of our national resources, such as utilities, are as well.......

TheBanker

I don't think any government will means test the State Pension.

But they could do it through the back door. Scrap or amend the triple lock so the value of the SP starts to reduce in real terms. Eligibility for Pension Credit will increase, so overall a bigger proportion of state pension expenditure would be subject to means testing. Over several decades you would get to an almost fully means tested system, where scrapping the SP (which will be next to worthless) for newly retired people might be more palatable.

JoeCrystal

BBC did reported that the state pension is likely to go up by £400 next year due to average earnings increase.

michaels

JoeCrystal said:

BBC did reported that the state pension is likely to go up by £400 next year due to average earnings increase.

Tories promised a special personal allowance for pensioners at the level of the state pension - can't remember, did Labour do the same?

hugheskevi

michaels said:

JoeCrystal said:

BBC did reported that the state pension is likely to go up by £400 next year due to average earnings increase.

Tories promised a special personal allowance for pensioners at the level of the state pension - can't remember, did Labour do the same?

No, Labour did not match that promise.

The £400 figure is the amount over and above inflation.

michaels

hugheskevi said:

michaels said:

JoeCrystal said:

BBC did reported that the state pension is likely to go up by £400 next year due to average earnings increase.

Tories promised a special personal allowance for pensioners at the level of the state pension - can't remember, did Labour do the same?

No, Labour did not match that promise.

The £400 figure is the amount over and above inflation.

Are you sure, I thought the 400 was the total triple lock increase based on 4-5% average income increase about double inflation?

Eldi_Dos

michaels said:

hugheskevi said:

michaels said:

JoeCrystal said:

BBC did reported that the state pension is likely to go up by £400 next year due to average earnings increase.

Tories promised a special personal allowance for pensioners at the level of the state pension - can't remember, did Labour do the same?

No, Labour did not match that promise.

The £400 figure is the amount over and above inflation.

Are you sure, I thought the 400 was the total triple lock increase based on 4-5% average income increase about double inflation?

If the fiqures being speculated on are accurate I think mine will be around £260 pa difference between inflation rate and earnings rate.

Stubod

..I can certainly see the end of the triple lock, probably during this parliament??