Energy cost to rise in October, fix now?

Steveotwo

Currently with Octopus Energy, with todays announcement is now a good time to fix or will this rise already be baked in to any fix deals out there?

BarelySentientAI

The rise has been included in fixed tariffs for weeks now.

And you shouldn't post your referral code.

Bigphil1474

According to the news today, if you fix now you could save £5 a year against the SVR as things stand. I'll hang on i think.

Steveotwo

@BarelySentientAI
got ya, removed

Steveotwo

@Bigphil1474
Ah well, no point then lol 

spot1034

We won't know the exact SVR prices for the Q4 quarter until after Ofgem's official announcement but it's entirely possible that some fixes available now will undercut the price cap. Of-course you'll pay a little more until Oct 1st, but the real question is what will happen to prices in the following two quarters - the first six months of 2025. Will they stay roughly the same, or go up? Or come down? No one knows. 

Steveotwo

@spot1034
Thanks for the reply, what's your hunch, have you fixed?

spot1034

Steveotwo said:

@spot1034
Thanks for the reply, what's your hunch, have you fixed?

Yes I got a fix at the present price cap, only two and a half weeks ago. 

Now, it's a slightly different situation. Wholesale prices, having dipped in July then rebounded into early August, have for the last week or so been trading in a narrow range and not really going anywhere. I've noticed that Octopus have just updated their August fix which is a miniscule reduction on the previous one - gas the same and a saving of perhaps £1.50 to £2 over the whole year for most electricity users - in other words, not a disaster if you went for the more expensive deal yesterday!

So the present level of fixed deals might be around a bit longer. The main risk is still an escalation in conflicts in the Middle East and Russia/Ukraine, and any number of other factors which might threaten gas supplies in the coming winter. I don't know whether prices will go up further, but it's difficult to see them coming down a lot in the next few months.

I reckon the best thing would be to find a fix which doesn't lock you in, even if it means staying with a supplier but on a free move to a cheaper deal if it comes along. However, if you don't want to be locked in, a variable tariff which tracks below the price cap like E. On Next Pledge will probably end up being not much different in October to December to a fix available now, and if the market doesn't go any higher and starts to fall again (say if political tensions ease and we have a mild winter) you'd then be in a good position early next year.