Just when I thought it was safe to fix duel fuel for 12 months…….

Muffet1

Having read all the info on MSE I accepted EDF’s 12 month Essentials 1yrJUN25 plan this week.  Now I read in this morning’s press that energy prices are set to go down 7%, I’m wondering if I’ve locked in too soon?  As there is a 14 day cooling off period, just wondering whether to cancel?

bagand96

Generally the press reporting goes off Cornwall Insights predictions Cornwall Insight release final forecast for July price cap - Cornwall Insight (cornwall-insight.com) and as you say they are forecasting a drop for the cap from July.

They go on to forecast a slight rise from October followed by a fall in January.  Their latest forecasts for that can be seen Predictions and Insights into the Default Tariff Cap - Cornwall Insight (cornwall-insight.com)

The further out we are, the less accurate the prediction will be because a lot can change.  As an example, any escalation in the current conflicts in Europe and Middle East could be reflected in energy prices.

There's an element of "how lucky do you feel".... but just because the Ofgem cap rates for SVT decrease, it doesn't necessarily follow that the same % decrease will be seen in fixed tariffs, because energy companies will already be pricing future predictions into the fix.

Ayr_Rage

EDF recently launched their own price cap predictions page.

https://www.edfenergy.com/gas-and-electricity/price-cap-predictions

spot1034

bagand96 said:

Generally the press reporting goes off Cornwall Insights predictions Cornwall Insight release final forecast for July price cap - Cornwall Insight (cornwall-insight.com) and as you say they are forecasting a drop for the cap from July.

They go on to forecast a slight rise from October followed by a fall in January.  Their latest forecasts for that can be seen Predictions and Insights into the Default Tariff Cap - Cornwall Insight (cornwall-insight.com)

The further out we are, the less accurate the prediction will be because a lot can change.  As an example, any escalation in the current conflicts in Europe and Middle East could be reflected in energy prices.

There's an element of "how lucky do you feel".... but just because the Ofgem cap rates for SVT decrease, it doesn't necessarily follow that the same % decrease will be seen in fixed tariffs, because energy companies will already be pricing future predictions into the fix.

Unfortunately that page hasn't been updated and is still based on closing prices from March 26th. 

Scot_39

Your edf is listed here

https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/utilities/are-there-any-cheap-fixed-energy-deals-currently-worth-it/

And meets the ML 3% criteria.

Note that it refers to forecast price increases.  And tge fact predictions going more than 1 quarter ahead even are just that - crystal gazing in tge current unstable world.

So if you are happy with deal fix - for the certainty.

 


Prices are also forecast to increase again in Oct and Jan.

The press stories yesterday based I guess on 

https://www.cornwall-insight.com/press/cornwall-insight-release-final-forecast-for-july-price-cap-2/

They underpredicted the Apr cap (*)

The previous default 3 quarter data still Mar based 

https://www.cornwall-insight.com/predictions-and-insights-into-the-default-tariff-cap/

And that latest price for Jul Q3 announced yesterday £1574 in the press is c£15 higher than CI forecast based on Mar data @ £1559 and that itself significantly higher than its previous Jul forecasts which were as low as £1463 in Feb when did the Apr final forecast.
(*)
https://www.cornwall-insight.com/press/cornwall-insights-final-forecast-for-the-april-price-cap/

They were out by £35 on tge Apr cap - just before it was released - £1655 vs £1690 - essentially at the same stage of forecasting

That's a £111 increase Feb to May for July pricing.

Awaiting to see what the will say for Q4 and Q1 when release longer term.



If your worried about losing out - then low or no exit fees are the way to go.

Bit fixes are more for certainty in most cases the higher savings sone offered versus say 5 years ago are slim.

And it's not impossible Ofgem might bow to pressure in certain parts re SC vs unit rates which could impact low or high users significantly.

And other tariffs like Tracker or Agile (both wholesale trackers) - the latter if can time shift away from e.g. 4-7pm peak 1/2 hourly rates - are where many posters here are posting making savings.  But you need to monitor regularly as are wholesale trackers - so exposed to market volatility- highs and lows.

prowla

Duel can leave you conflicted.