Price Cap Predictions vs Fixed Rate Comparisons

NickTipping

Hi,
I'm a little confused with the comparisons of Fixed Rates versus projections of the Price Cap for the next three quarters. The fixed rates are obviously quoted for the next twelve months ahead (for twelve-month fixes). However, the price cap predictions are based on twelve months from their start dates aren't they? If so, we're not comparing usage over the same period. In addition, consumption varies over the year based on weather, and I'm guessing this isn't taken into account in the calculations. ie We're now on one cap moving into the summer, when usage is dropping, a prodicted lower rate from July, when usage is probably at it's lowest, and increases in October and January, when usage is highest. Is that why the web site states that it probably isn't worth fixing unless there is at least a 3% saving? Even then, this seems to be based on the % changes in the caps and doesn't take into account likely % of annual usage during each of the cap periods.
Can someone enlighten me?
What would be really helpful would be to know what I would pay if I stay on the cap for the next twelve months with cap predictions seasonal usage variations factored in.

born_again

Where is Mystic Meg when you need her. 🤣

Sadly it's a question many ask & there really is not a answer that anyone can give that will be right (well not until after the event) As it is all simply guess work on the price cap.

All it needs is another big event to kick off causing a knock on effect & totally messes up any cap predictions.

If you want to have known out goings & a bit of stability, then a fixed rate is the way forward, if not it's fingers crossed cap's are a good guess. 
End of the day it's like tossing a coin.

spot1034

No one knows what the price cap will be in six or nine months from now. It isn't yet decided what it will be for July to September, but we are now about half way through the assessment period on which that one will be calculated, so we can get some idea - provided wholesale rates don't either soar or plummet in the next six weeks or so in which case it will be affected accordingly. It's basically an average for the period.

Beyond that the predictions for the dates further out are  based largely on the present wholesale rates for the periods in question, but the one thing you can pretty much guarantee is that they will change as the time they relate to draws nearer. The only problem is, no one knows whether they will go up or down.

Last autumn there was a short time when Cornwall Insight's forecast for the price cap period we have just entered was that it would be slightly up on Jan - March. Then, wholesale rates started to fall and the prediction was revised quite sharply downwards. 

It's all guesswork, and you just have to do what feels best for you and hope you guessed right!

Netexporter

If you want to save significant amounts of money then TOU (time of use) tariffs are your friend. You'll need a smart meter fitted, if you haven't already got one.

NickTipping

Thanks for the comments everyone. I appreciate that future caps are just best (informed?) guess,but the point I was trying to make is that comparing a 12-month fix starting today with a CAP rate starting in 6 months time is a bit like comparing apples and pears. Regardless of whether future caps are a guess or not, usage will vary hugely from cap period to cap period as each one progresses through the year.
Looking at it a different way, then, since Ofgem set the price cap every three months, they should also define usage for the average household for each three-month period, rather than just the annual total. At least then, the potential spend for each cap period could be calculated, whether you trust the predictions or not. Having said that, I guess I could always look back at monthly usage and calculate it myself.