EON Electric Economy 7 Variable - Looking to Change Tariff

GSP

We currently have Economy 7 and a variable rate.

With prices about to be reduced, we would like to take advantage of a fixed deal.

Plus, I’ve worked out we use 10-15% of total units at night, so wonder if best we move to a single rate, if possible.

Does anyone have any thoughts or suggestions with this before we do anything?

Thanks

Scot_39

10-15% at night - is not enough to make E7 pay vs SR.

see SVT E7 and SR prices (will be dropping come Apr 1 = but they may show new prices if you get quotes on line)

https://www.eonnext.com/electricity-and-gas/tariff-prices

Taking current prices here in EM - rounded to 1 decimal place

E7 = c35.9p / kWh peak - c15.0p off peak

Flat rate c28.0p / kWh

Even at 15% night use - your paying an average of c32.8p 17% more than SR in this region - you can check your own  (@ the lower 10% c33.8p / kWh ave - c20.7% more).

If your never likely to increase that night consumption (breakeven vs SR varies - but around 35-40% gets close enough) - then it's quite an expensive tariff to stay on - unless their is another reason in your future plans.

No one can accurately predict if a fix is going to be right or wrong price wise - or otherwise - but offers being revised regularly.

The current cap forecasts for instance from CI are shown in link below - another drop in July - a rise in Oct - next year ? - as are some current fixes -  in the MSE article on current fixes can be found at 

https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/utilities/are-there-any-cheap-fixed-energy-deals-currently-worth-it/

The electric vs gas rates etc seperated by CI here - shows electric bouncing back in Q4 - gas only slightly  increasing.

https://www.cornwall-insight.com/predictions-and-insights-into-the-default-tariff-cap/

There are multiple threads here on the topic as well to review.

GSP

Scot_39 said:

10-15% at night - is not enough to make E7 pay vs SR.

see SVT E7 and SR prices (will be dropping come Apr 1 = but they may show new prices if you get quotes on line)

https://www.eonnext.com/electricity-and-gas/tariff-prices

Taking current prices here in EM - rounded to 1 decimal place

E7 = c35.9p / kWh peak - c15.0p off peak

Flat rate c28.0p / kWh

Even at 15% night use - your paying an average of c32.8p 17% more than SR in this region - you can check your own  (@ the lower 10% c33.8p / kWh ave - c20.7% more).

If your never likely to increase that night consumption (breakeven vs SR varies - but around 35-40% gets close enough) - then it's quite an expensive tariff to stay on - unless their is another reason in your future plans.

No one can accurately predict if a fix is going to be right or wrong price wise - or otherwise - but offers being revised regularly.

The current cap forecasts for instance from CI are shown in link below - another drop in July - a rise in Oct - next year ? - as are some current fixes -  in the MSE article on current fixes can be found at 

https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/utilities/are-there-any-cheap-fixed-energy-deals-currently-worth-it/

The electric vs gas rates etc seperated by CI here - shows electric bouncing back in Q4 - gas only slightly  increasing.

https://www.cornwall-insight.com/predictions-and-insights-into-the-default-tariff-cap/

There are multiple threads here on the topic as well to review.

Thank you so much for all this information.

This is my first time on this part of the site, so thanks for the heads up on other threads as well.

I’m sure Economy 7 rates were something like 15p day, 12p night a few years ago? I don’t imagine we will see anything like these numbers again as so I hear the move to renewables is going to cost us?

Scot_39

Edf and Octopus have already published their April E7 rates.

The 12p night is now looking very much a looming if not current reality again.   As in one region with them e7 off peak DD rate  down to 12.25p with them come Apr (others still upto well over 14p) - but that comes with a 30.6p day rate.

But with those new prices reflecting Ofgem cap dropping SR and the lesser pilublished MR ave cap prices 4p+ in at least some regions come Apr 1 and CI predicting nearly c4p more expected in Jul (but note electric SR forecast bouncing back c1.42p Oct - about 7% - so electric  responsible for most of the 4% forecast increase in headline duel fuel cap)  - those low night if not day rates (15p really - are you sure ?) could yet be returning.


Renewables really do impact costs.
Some might act to reduce curent wholesale rate balance in future - like the cheaper CfD auction prices in 2019 and 22 for FOSW in particular (if some actually ever built for those auction rates, connected to grid in time  etc). 

CfDs did save in Ofgem cap if not EPG at gas's recent highs - but are again adding to bill in last 2 Q figures announced iirc by 1% of Apr DF cap - in reality double say  2% as only impacts electric.

Others like infrastructure to connect and stabilise grid / improve grid regulation to cope etc - increase bills regardless of those auction capped wholesale costs.

We are sadly where we are due to decades of govt policy failures of vision on UK energy security and generation mix.

And future grid costs are currently unpredictable - many plans are not yet through planning permission stages - and nimby groups, councils and local MPs who support their complaints  already demanding underground vs conventional pylon in areas  etc which could blow some already big figures as may talk of compensation etc  - already forecast in £10s billions at today's rates.

GSP

Scot_39 said:

Edf and Octopus have already published their April E7 rates.

The 12p night is now looking very much a reality again - in fact in one region for most of last year it was sub 10p at EDF - but jumped to 16p+ in that region in Jan.

And in one region its getting down to 12.25p with them come Apr (others over 14p) - but that comes with a 30.6p day rate - not 15p



But with the cap dropping prices over 4p come Apr 1 and more expected in Jul - those low night if not day rates could return.

Renewables really do impact costs - some likely to reduce - like the cheaper CfD auction prices in 2019 and 22 as and when come onstream and - others like infrastructure to connect and stabilise grid / improve regulation - increase bills regardless of wholesale costs.

For a while the CfD pricing was saving despite a relatively low contribution to generation mix  - a reduction in Ofgem cap if not EPG cap - during gas's high - and those rates were upto treble 22 auction rates.

But aren't commercially viable offshore anymore - so that part of 5th auction last year bombed.

Thanks. You seem to know your stuff!

‘Pinning you down a bit here”, this further July decrease ‘expected’. Should I hold on? I know things can change in an instant, but is there room for quite a lot of decrease in July. If ‘just’ a couple pence is expected, then I might just fix it soon in April?

Scot_39

I  am no expert when it comes to fixing - I cannot actually get a fix on my current E10 tariff - but it strikes me as difficult to second guess the market with any certainty.

I go back to the attitude of my parents and now 1 elder sibling for fixing - they wanted to fix for certainty - if that certainty cost a little more than flexible rates especially on 2 year deals - so be it.

  

Last Jan / Apr regional single rate electricity was on regional average of c34p EPG rates on our bills. 

And that on a c34p / c17p EPG discount - so market 68p/51p - and Govt - i.e. future (net) tax payers - will pay for all of those 18p/34p/17p payments (lower on gaas - but far more units as a rule sold to most homes on duel fuel) plus interest for decades to come.

It fell to 30.1p in Jul, 27.4p in Oct, increased to 28.6p in Jan.

Its about to drop from 28.6 to 24.5p (but for some part of that drop has been wiped out by SC increases - upto 14p in worst impacted region) and possible 20.9p according to CI in July - but increase to 22.3 in Oct in same forecast.

But suppliers will be using their own numbers, and basing fixes not on Ofgem rates - but a different mix of spot / future delivery rates / hedged pricing (Ofgem price for only 3m these days - a supplier offering a 1/2/3 yr fix - has to look at the full period and make sure covered - 30 domestic suppliers failed - one bowed out - theres not a lot of room for getting it wrong in a low margin business).

Theres far too many geo-political risks and even UK political policy uncertainty right now (Ofgem under more pressure on SC rates etc) for me to imagine getting comparisons vs forward variable pricing right.

A siblings last SP electric only fix covered Ofgem policy changes - at the end of a 2 yr fix - last Feb - not only did unit rates jump c17p - the electric SC jumped by c30p a day - she's a low user with gas - £100 pa matters

So go back to generics

If want to fix for stability do so.

If worried prices will drop - look for low exit fee fix or look at e.g. Octopus and their now exit fee free fix plans - and jump ship to SVT or new fix if prices do fall more than your comfortable with - but you get to stay protected if rates rise.

You may know someone who can give you a referal code and so £50 for switching at Octopus - others £xx ? - a non trivial saving for a low user (other suppliers were doing these at times in past too and some might also have suitably flexible exit terms or even they might too drop fees as well).

Or look at pledge tracker - ML has been recommending - see link in above mse link - that will give you the Apr / July predicted drops - but also as not a real fixed price deal - but a fixed term tracker - will see the predicted c1.4p rise in Oct - and any others during your contract - or cost just £25 - to leave.

Only you can make the decision to wait to see if rates improve come July cap - or happy at current offered levels.

As frequently whenever people ask about deals in past - they have often had a mixed set of fix or wait responses from others - with different risk attitudes and different presumptions about future pricing direction.  Others will try and get the absolute low.  And in the past those happy to ride wholesale markets with a bit of active oversight - would be publicising the savings they were making on wholesale linked rates - like Tracker / Agile too.

GSP

Scot_39 said:

I  am no expert when it comes to fixing - I cannot actually get a fix on my current E10 tariff - but it strikes me as difficult to second guess the market with any certainty.

I go back to the attitude of my parents and now 1 elder sibling for fixing - they wanted to fix for certainty - if that certainty cost a little more than flexible rates especially on 2 year deals - so be it.

  

Last Jan / Apr regional single rate electricity was on regional average of c34p EPG rates on our bills. 

And that on a c34p / c17p EPG discount - so market 68p/51p - and Govt - i.e. future (net) tax payers - will pay for all of those 18p/34p/17p payments (lower on gaas - but far more units as a rule sold to most homes on duel fuel) plus interest for decades to come.

It fell to 30.1p in Jul, 27.4p in Oct, increased to 28.6p in Jan.

Its about to drop from 28.6 to 24.5p (but for some part of that drop has been wiped out by SC increases - upto 14p in worst impacted region) and possible 20.9p according to CI in July - but increase to 22.3 in Oct in same forecast.

But suppliers will be using their own numbers, and basing fixes not on Ofgem rates - but a different mix of spot / future delivery rates / hedged pricing (Ofgem price for only 3m these days - a supplier offering a 1/2/3 yr fix - has to look at the full period and make sure covered - 30 domestic suppliers failed - one bowed out - theres not a lot of room for getting it wrong in a low margin business).

Theres far too many geo-political risks and even UK political policy uncertainty right now (Ofgem under more pressure on SC rates etc) for me to imagine getting comparisons vs forward variable pricing right.

A siblings last SP electric only fix covered Ofgem policy changes - at the end of a 2 yr fix - last Feb - not only did unit rates jump c17p - the electric SC jumped by c30p a day - she's a low user with gas - £100 pa matters

So go back to generics

If want to fix for stability do so.

If worried prices will drop - look for low exit fee fix or look at e.g. Octopus and their now exit fee free fix plans - and jump ship to SVT or new fix if prices do fall more than your comfortable with - but you get to stay protected if rates rise.

You may know someone who can give you a referal code and so £50 for switching at Octopus - others £xx ? - a non trivial saving for a low user (other suppliers were doing these at times in past too and some might also have suitably flexible exit terms or even they might too drop fees as well).

Or look at pledge tracker - ML has been recommending - see link in above mse link - that will give you the Apr / July predicted drops - but also as not a real fixed price deal - but a fixed term tracker - will see the predicted c1.4p rise in Oct - and any others during your contract - or cost just £25 - to leave.

Only you can make the decision to wait to see if rates improve come July cap - or happy at current offered levels.

As frequently whenever people ask about deals in past - they have often had a mixed set of fix or wait responses from others - with different risk attitudes and different presumptions about future pricing direction.  Others will try and get the absolute low.  And in the past those happy to ride wholesale markets with a bit of active oversight - would be publicising the savings they were making on wholesale linked rates - like Tracker / Agile too.

Thank you again so much for this.

I suppose realistically, just how far can rates come down now? Is it ‘worth’ waiting for a 5p, 10p cut if it’s not going to happen.

We all would like to capture numbers at the top or bottom of a market, depending what that market was, but the timing rarely happens in real terms.

It does come down to certainty and I think bills are so high overall per annum now, it’s worth paying an exit fee if a better offer comes along later as the saving benefit may still be worth it.

Scot_39

I'll probably get shot down for saying this - but its nearly three years since energy prices took off.

And even then the start point then was actually lower than cap was in 2019.

The cap before the first really big double digit rise in Apr 22 to £1971 was in Aug 21 £1271 - albiet at old TDCVs - over 2.5 years ago. (Feb 21 lower - £1138 - so to Aug 21 another 10% or so not trivial but not the 55% that followed - but then have to index over 6m longer to compare too)

And then - Feb 21 £1138 was lower than 1.5 years ealier - the cap in Aug 2019 was £1179 - so again could take that and try indexing for best part of 4.5 years - or 5 years and compare to CI predictions for summer.

And so the sad thing is that I don't actually think the current rates are really "that high" anymore - well not if drop again as forecast in summer.

So lets take that £1271 - add 11% = c£1400 - add another year and a half of inflation - then take out 5% for the cap TDCV dropping - your really pretty much in the same sort of pricing level as CIs July £1463.

Suspect if took core inflation - excluding energy and food that peaked at 7-8% than CPI 11.1% - but now still c6% vs CPI 3.4% - the numbers would also be getting surprisingly close.

Thats why inflation nasty.  It compounds - so inflation really is a pernicious thing if hangs around - e.g. 10% rise as a one off gets easily forgotten over time - but repeat so 10% again following year - thats 21% - 10% again following year - thats 33% etc)

Anyone expecting deflation to take numbers back to 2019 or 2021 absolute £ levels is probably going to be disappointed.

macman

Are you sure that your 10-15% calculation of night rate usage is based on a whole year's consumption? Otherwise, it will be way out if it's not including a full winter's usage.
Typically you need to be using 33% on night rate to make it worthwhile, though E7 tariffs do vary hugely between the two registers.

vienna28

Through the website Uswitch i can see some of the latest EON E7 fixes for my area the East Midlands.   The night rates look pretty good.

......

E.ON Next Next Fixed 24M v9

24 month fixed price

Unit rate per kWh:   Electricity

Day:   30.6222p

Night: 10.1808p

Standing charge per day:  55.7162p

Early exit fee: £150.00

........

E.ON Next Next Fixed 12m v10

12 month fixed price

Unit rate per kWh:   Electricity

Day:   30.7146p

Night:   10.2732p

Standing charge per day: 55.7162p

Early exit fee: £75.00

....

Additional comment:   On Uswitch i included to see plans that require directly signing through the provider.   So if the aboves two fixes interest anyone then you would have to sign up for them directly through EON.

vienna28

Looking on the EON website i see that they also do 12 month and 24 month fixes that don't have exit fees.  The unit rates are around a couple of pence extra compared to the fixes that do have exit fees.

Here is the 24 month EON "no exit fee" E7 fix:

Next Fixed 24m v9 No Exit Fees

Electricity
Daily standing charge	55.72p
Unit rate	32.54p per kWh (Day) 12.10p per kWh (Night