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cFiresim and other simulators in the UK ??
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OldScientist said:2) The future will not be the same as the past. What the above graph tells us, is that for a 60/40 portfolio, the SAFEMAX for a UK retiree was around 3.0 to 3.5% depending on what was held - since we have no idea what future values might be, and variations with time are very large, fine tuning it to a better precision than that is probably futile.
N. Hampshire, he/him. Octopus Intelligent Go elec & Tracker gas / Vodafone BB / iD mobile. Ripple Kirk Hill member.
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QrizB said:OldScientist said:2) The future will not be the same as the past. What the above graph tells us, is that for a 60/40 portfolio, the SAFEMAX for a UK retiree was around 3.0 to 3.5% depending on what was held - since we have no idea what future values might be, and variations with time are very large, fine tuning it to a better precision than that is probably futile.
To stay vaguely on topic, this is another weakness of the calculator at https://www.2020financial.co.uk/pension-drawdown-calculator/ - it only models inflation adjusted withdrawals. However, to my knowledge, it remains the only free simulator using historical data for a UK-based retirement (e.g., the calculator at https://www.fidelity.co.uk/retirement/calculators/pension-drawdown-tool/# mentioned above appears to use a Monte Carlo approach with nominal returns for a fixed portfolio, 25/75/5 - equities/bonds/cash, and then assumes an inflation rate of 2%, the outcomes for the 'poor' market conditions appear to be somewhat overoptimistic compared to historical ones).
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