Home heating oil

Linsomer

Why is it that despite increased US oil production resulting in falling prices, end suppliers have raised their prices for the standard 500 litre minimum home supply?
To misquote the late Bob Geldoff "do they know it's Christmas/Chanukah?" I and many others who are off grid for heating won't be able to afford to adequately heat out homes this winter

400ixl

Supply vs demand, and US output doesn't really change the market very much, its the OPEC countries which really have a big influence on the price.

There was a jump in retail pricing at the end of November when the sudden cold wether kicked in and no doubt spooked a number of people into ordering. The prices have been coming back down again since then.

Between the end of September and that spike it had dropped around 10p a litre and the spike at the end of November around 4p, so still 6p litre down from the end of September.

Buying between December and February has always been a bad idea as demand is higher and typically so are prices.

KittenChops

Bob Geldof isn't dead!

QrizB

KittenChops said:

Bob Geldof isn't dead!

No, but he might not be on time

Linsomer said:

Why is it that despite increased US oil production resulting in falling prices ...

Crude oil prices aren't really falling. They're roughly the same level they've been all year, and higher than 2020 or 2021.

Chart from https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil

Linsomer said:

I and many others who are off grid for heating won't be able to afford to adequately heat out homes this winter

If you can't afford to live where you do, you should consider moving to somewhere you *can* afford.

400ixl

Heating oil is still cheaper to run than Gas the last time I looked at the comparison. It is a pain in that you have to bulk buy, but at least you can choose the supplier each time to get the best price. LPG is worse as it tends to get people locked into contracts as well.

markin

"OPEC+ has seen its share of the oil market shrink to 51%, the lowest since 2016"

They still control the market, Brazil can't or won't Export its extra.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-isnt-only-one-eating-235009030.html 

Ramping up Export is far harder than increasing local supply, Or Biden releasing its reserve that's meant for war time.

"How much oil does the European Union produce?

In 2000, approximately 42 million metric tons were produced, but by 2019 this had fallen to around 20 million metric tons. Until here, the United Kingdom was the EU's main oil producing country. In 2022, the oil production in the European Union, excluding the UK, amounted to some 16.7 million metric tons.25 Aug 2023" link


Others have stepped up to make up for the loss of Russian oil but the import cost will likely be higher.
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20230925-1