Autumn Statement Predictions?

michaels

dealyboy said:

Right ... my wager is ...

IHT - no change
income tax - 1p cut to basic rate
                  - higher rate no change
tax thresholds (personal allowance) - no change
personal savings allowance - no change
personal savings zero rate band - from £5,000 to £6,000
national insurance - no change
new 'British' ISA
corporation tax - down to 20%
pension triple lock - retained but April 2024 increase to be 7.8% (change to earnings component)
benefits April increase - retained as September CPI (6.7%)
UK Aid - to return to 0.7% of GNI (from 0.5%) from 2025

Interesting.  I think there is a good economic rationale for excluding unconsolidated bonuses/one off payments from the wage increase number used in the triple lock (it should not have been included in the first place but was probably not anticipated to be a major issue) but, the politics of it are probably extremely poor from the party of the pensioner so I am not sure that the money saved (most of which will be in future parliaments not this one) would be considered worth the political pain.

michaels

MarkCarnage said:

MattMattMattUK said:

MarkCarnage said:

The tables on comparative tax between countries above also appear to leave out National Insurance, which is effectively a tax, and will increase the effective rate of tax quite significantly for those in the £12k -£50k bracket. 

They include NI, I am unsure why you think they omit NI. I grouped everything under "income taxation" not "income tax" for the reason that in the UK we have Income Tax and National Insurance, other countries have national and regional income taxes etc. 
Take £25k for example, the £3,978 figure is made up of £1,492 NI and £2,486 Income tax. 

MarkCarnage said:

The whole UK tax system is a mess caused by generations of politicians and needs complete reform...it is regressive in the wrong places, has marginal rate 'cliff edges' and undertaxes property at the expense of income at personal tax level. 

Property taxes are bad taxes economically, they are generally taxes that should not exist. A services tax which is what Council Tax should be, is reasonable, as is a tax based on occupation and so theoretical impact on local services. Taxes based on the value of property are not sensible or rational.

MarkCarnage said:

It also favours debt over equity at a corporate level. 

There are a lot of issues with our Corporation Tax, it does not favour investment either, especially when compared to other nations who successfully built business taxes which encourage investment and encourage reinvestment of profit back into the business. Corporation tax needs wholesale reform, but I am not sure that is going to come from an autumn statement. 

MarkCarnage said:

I am of course not holding my breath about any attempt to deal with this, and indeed this time round expect to see:
1) Even more distortions to bribe whatever small segment is deemed essential to be bribed to get the desired result under our FPTP voting system
2) Much trumpeting of very minor changes to exploit the complete numerical ignorance of most. 

This is a pre-election period, the Conservatives know that they are going to lose the election next year, the only question is how many previously safe seats they can hang onto, and how many policies they can push through now that offer their voters long term benefit, whilst at least staying vaguely close to their fiscal rules. Hence the IHT changes. 

MarkCarnage said:

All encouraged by the Mail/Express/Telegraph, whose owners will continue to benefit. 

Look at their markets, people over 70 and high net worth households, they will give those people what benefits they can ahead of the election, although largely targeted at the latter group and they will do what they can to secure a job in the private sector when they lose their seat at the next election.

It might have been clearer to explicitly state that the tables included NI, income taxation may be technically correct but the wording difference wasn't obvious....I assumed that you hadn't as not everyone pays it (many pensioners for one). I did think that the number for under £25k looked to be on the high side...! 

Your statement on property taxes is your opinion...it's not fact. There are many who would argue the opposite and back it up with evidence, which you haven't.....land is a scarce resource, why should it not be taxed proportionately to its use? Council tax is regressive, by stopping at an arbitrarily low level.It encourages capital flows into unproductive assets. 

I agree with you on CT.

 IHT is a nettle that needs grasping, either by taxing the recipient and/or lowering the rate. I'd lower the exemption level and the rate and tax it at recipient level. Not something I'm expecting to see from this lot though. In Scotland, the ScotGov policies are equally bad in the other direction! 

I wouldn't be too sure that the over 70s are as much in the Tory camp as you seem to imply.....and it's a very short sighted strategy to give bungs to them surely! Unless you think that the next age cohort will blindly switch voting allegiance. 

Historical experience is that people become more conservative (large and small C) as they get older.  I would have thought it was for you to suggest why this pattern will stop than for the OP to say why it will continue.

DT2001

I think IHT will be tweaked because it has been mentioned so much in the press recently.
I think the argument that it is taxing already taxed money is wrong. I am basing my theory on an assumption that a high % of people (the 4% of estates paying the tax) are doing so because of the value of their property. Whilst they would have been taxed on their earnings to save for a deposit and repay their mortgage quite often there is untaxed capital gain.
At the moment our estate/s would incur IHT. A 1/4 of our wealth is in SIPPs, 1/2 in property (of which the majority is capital gain) and a 1/4 in ISA’s
(funded initially by share dealing, again free from CGT).
It is also avoidable.
Personally I’d like a simpler system (and on tax generally) at a lower rate as I think people will then spend less on avoiding it and will be accepting (not happy) to pay.

I hope the personal allowance will rise as hopefully it encourages more people to work.

There are nuances in each countries tax system. Earlier in this thread someone has provided a figure for the personal allowance in France which is correct however if you have a household with more than one person (children under 25 inc) that allowance increases. I read an article recently (but cannot find it to check my memory) that 56% of French households do not pay tax. So comparisons are difficult.

duckson

I’m hoping there will be a substantial increase in the HICBC level from the current £50100-£60000 which was set 10 years ago and hasn’t increased since. 
It’s an unfair ‘tax’ when a couple earning £100k can keep it all and a couple earning £60k get nothing. 

Pat38493

Does anyone know if the details behind the Autumn statement are likely to provide new information about the next steps for LTA legislation i.e. whether the LTA will somehow be completely repealed by April?

MACKEM99

Mr Hunt will say his government have done a great job at reducing inflation.  Funny how when it was increasing massively he said it was due to factors out of their control?😃

MarkCarnage

Bank of England governor warns markets not to expect inflation to fall quickly

From the FT just now......! Factors outwith Hunt's control no doubt....

njm123

MarkCarnage said:

Bank of England governor warns markets not to expect inflation to fall quickly

From the FT just now......! Factors outwith Hunt's control no doubt....

With the "leaks" today of what's in the Autumn Statement  I'm not surprised - seems to be a lot of generous/inflationary measures.

Look to be going for the push welfare claimants back to work,  perhaps discouraging people from becoming economically inactive by making work more attractive (especially if inflation stays high)

Also tying labours hands a bit - as the measures will use a lot of the financial headway labour would have used to fund their plans.   If by some miracle the tories get back in expect serious cuts in services after the election to balance the books and a real crackdown on benefit claims.

Silvertabby

michaels said:

Cus said:

MarkCarnage said:

michaels said:

MarkCarnage said:

Was Johnson really incredibly bad for the country.

Yes. Unequivocally. The COVID enquiry evidence alone substantiates that, without even going into the Brexit shambles.

I have not heard anything yet from the covid enquiry suggesting the outcome would have been materially different with someone else in charge although this may have been more by luck than judgement. 

Brexit is the will of the UK people and had to be delivered in a meaningful way (including the end of freedom of movement).  I don't think there was a better solution that met this democratic imperative than the 'shambles' that we have.

You haven't been listening very hard then. 

Brexit was the outcome of a bunch of corrupt liars, and was not voted for by a majority of the UK people. Those who did are now regretting it. I will not have it described as the will of the UK people as it wasn't and isn't. Many were very unclear what they were voting for and were led like sheep to the 'sunlit uplands'. It may yet prove to be the catalyst for the break up of the UK. I echo Donald Tusk's view that there should be a special place in hell for those who promoted it. 

It was the will of the people that could be bothered to vote, they are the only ones which count imo.
I don't know anyone who is regretting it now (although I don't know many that voted for Brexit).  To me it seems like the media that didn't want to leave are trying to show that it was the wrong decision. This would be happening even if everything was going well.

Many people had no clue what they were voting for in detail, but most people never do.

On both sides

One young woman, on being interviewed on TV, was asked why she had voted to 'remain'.  She replied that she had voted for her cheap Spanish holidays.

dealyboy

I don't know but I think the Tories have really messed up (didn't risk it  ) ... this autumn statement !!!!!! budget. I don't know any other that has had so many trails and mixed messages such that everybody is going to end up disappointed about something.

Not long to go now lads & ladies & others  .

Edit: Interesting ... come with a 'u' and without the 'e', a proper and correct use of an English word, not the vulgar use, has been replaced by !!!!!!.